bean5302

Sano's last year with the Twins is this one. He'll be traded before the start of the season, at the deadline if he has value or he'll be allowed to become a free agent at the end of the year. During his time on the active roster, he'll serve as a DH.

Oh, he's only a security risk if executives in the room let him be? It's pretty clear you don't work in any kind of intellectual property or security field, haha. Rosenthal was a business risk and I'm sure Manfred did not make the decision to not renew/terminate/whatever Rosenthal unilaterally. Employers can and do fire every low level operations employee for disparaging the company online. It's in your employment agreement and social media policy at every major company, and it happens every day. Most people know better than to directly call out their employers by name. Also, employers can terminate those "low level" employees because they're easily replaceable and the termination is for cause, meaning the employee is not eligible for unemployment in most cases. Aside from that, Ken Rosenthal was not, in any remote way, a low level operations employee. There's no way that guy was making less than $200,000 from MLB (only) when bonuses and non-qualified benefits were coming into the picture.

We'll have an agreement this month. December was always likely going to be a non-negotiation time. The holiday season meant players, owners and representatives were going to have limited availability, tensions were high meaning a couple weeks off to cool down was warranted. Nobody is getting anything done in the second half of the month as owners and executives do not cancel that time off. Such businesspeople often work insane hours year round and a couple weeks of holiday season is usually the only time they can count on for legitimate time off because so many financial and large corporate offices run skeleton crews all at the same time. Luxury Floor = $100MM, Luxury Ceiling $200MM Current Revenue Sharing Full Year Service Time = 120 Days. 2 Years Arbitration Eligibility (Essentially All Super 2) Different Arbitration Formulas 6 Years Team Control Still No Arbitration Pool 18 Second Pitch Clock Something like that.

If pretty much any professional posted a negative comment about their company or executive management even on their personal social media, they'd likely be canned. It's not surprising MLB chose not to move forward with him based on just that; however, MLB ownership and the commissioner are in the midst of tense negotiations and their own reporter has been hostile towards them. I would personally view him as a security risk to leak confidential information. Letting Rosenthal go looks like the decision made by competent management, not vice versa.

I mean... I could use the 4 games and 17.1 innings in AAA where Winder was apparently dealing with a shoulder impingement the Twins also called dead arm, but you just accused me of cherry picking based on 10 games and 54.2 innings. Also, Winder earned his promotion to AAA after only 10 starts and 54.2 innings because the Twins saw whatever it was they wanted to see and were confident he was ready for the next level fast. The shoulder is of some concern. The performance was dominant. The other pitchers in the list provided were never dominant at the high minors level.

Career numbers in AA 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.90 K:BB (Alex Meyer) 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB (Trevor May) 4.22 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 2.03 K:BB (Tyler Jay) 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.55 K:BB (Kohl Stewart) 2.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 10.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB (Stephen Gonsavles) 3.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Fernando Romero) 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Felix Jorge) 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.21 K:BB (Aaron Slegers) 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB (Adalberto Mejia) 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 10.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.31 K:BB (Lewis Thorpe) 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.50 K:BB (Josh Winder) Perhaps that illustrates just a little bit better as to why Josh Winder might be worth keeping. The closest competitor to Winder is Stephen Gonsalves, who was throwing 90mph in his first stint in MLB and had a single borderline plus pitch and 2 other average MLB offerings. Winder has 4 MLB pitches and 2 plus pitches with a 3rd borderline plus pitch. The two are not remotely comparable. When you have a pitcher who is absolutely dominant at AA, that's uncommon. When you have a guy who is dominant in the high minors and they have the stuff to back up the performance, that's something rare and important to keep an eye on.

I'd be willing to bet the new CBA is going to include a salary floor at least $100MM. It was proposed by the owners because the big teams are sick and tired of being unable to wean some teams off revenue sharing and because it will support the move of teams like Oakland and Tampa to better markets/stadiums.

I think that's a pretty big leap. There's no reason to leak anything since teams can still discuss trades all they like so the Twins can just pick up a phone and call whomever they'd like. Also, with the lockout ongoing, season ticket sales aren't going to be busy no matter what so appeasing the fans at this point probably doesn't do much.

I think the ceiling on Winder is higher than mid rotation. I think the midpoint is #3 and I think the floor is #4-5 at this point, barring injuries. I'm more optimistic about Winder than any of our other pitching prospects. Winder has a 4 pitch mix. Personally, I believe a 4+ pitch mix is virtually required for upper rotation arms. Beyond the 4 pitches, though, he has multiple plus offerings (fastball and slider) with a borderline plus changeup and a decent curveball. When you see a 4 pitch mix with a couple plus offerings and another good offering, that's a recipe for success. Winder was absolutely dominant at AA last year. He didn't give up hits or allow walks. He also struck out 10.7 per 9 innings while also efficiently eating innings with less than 15 pitches per inning. At 100 pitches, Winder would average 7 innings per start. Even though Winder stumbled a bit in AAA, his swinging strike rate, walk rate and efficiency were all solid. The only warning flag for me was the shutdown over the shoulder. Winder talked about his shutdown being purely precautionary, but it does feel like there may have been a bit more to it.

While scouts could be wrong, they're pretty universal on Austin Martin not being suited for center field (range) or shortstop (range/arm). Most scouts expect Austin to wind up at 2B, but that does assume he develops. Interestingly, Falvey has talked about potentially using Martin at shortstop next year so perhaps the Twins have seen more than the general perception of scouts around the league or the Twins simply don't value defense at shortstop much. Since teams can talk about trades during the lockout, but they cannot negotiate with players on MLB contracts, it might be exciting to see what happens at the lockout's end. Trades might come in fast and furious like the deadline. I don't have an opinion on whether or not the Twins should trade Martin. It all depends what they get for him.

You bring your own facts and data. If you can find something, stomp my facts and data into the ground, don't ask me to keep searching for something that proves you're right and I'm wrong. The paper may go back to a time which seems disconnected to what we consider modern techniques, but the research paper was published in 2018. I am not a surgical researcher and I'm not qualified to evaluate the validity of the sample data used. I found articles talking about modern techniques in ACL repair proving to be unreliable or problematic over time and other advancements proving to be non-valuable. I found nothing in my search to indicate ACL repair was almost certainly going to be successful with modern techniques. https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20170712/patients-who-never-make-it-back-after-acl-injury-present-opportunities-challenges According to Robert A. Arciero, MD, professor of orthopedics at the UConn Health Center, studies have shown there is a return-to-play rate of about 63% to 65% for professional football players after ACL injury and related treatment. This is lower than public perception, he noted. The percent of return to play after ACL injury “in high school-aged kids, [is] somewhere in the mid- to high-80s,” Arciero said. “In major league soccer, it is somewhere between 70% and 85%.”

Where's your data? Did you accidentally wipe it away before you flushed this morning?

It's not a strawman. Equations are not fun to watch. Analytics are not fun or remotely entertaining and the desire to make baseball more analytically pure is the opposite direction the sport needs to take. You are wrong.

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/52/2/128 Meta Analysis showing elite sports players return to sport rates, though the meta analysis included college level players who may have been seniors, etc who may have just elected to graduate and be done or something. Football 78% Basketball 82% Soccer 85% "Among elite baseball players, ACL reconstruction to the rear batting leg was associated with decreased batting average on return to sport" I don't think it's as guaranteed as you make it out to be. Lewis relies upon explosive acceleration, lateral movement and sprint speed to generate a lot of his value at shortstop. A lost step or two would make a big impact on Royce Lewis' potential value, though I do think he'll still be athletic enough. Just have to wait and see.

Why not run simulated games of MLB the Show instead of actual baseball games? Umpires are 91-96% accurate on their calls, but they're even more consistent at 93-98% with an average consistency of 96%. It adds value to the game. A hitter or pitcher not sure they're going to get the call. Frustration is added, but nuance is added. Eliminating the work catchers do to become better at receiving pitches. Eliminating the art of framing. Eliminating all the nuance in favor of robots makes the game less entertaining. Blame the umps/blame the refs is a major part of gameday culture in the United States. Attempts to take advantage of rules, like faking contact by flopping in soccer are pervasive through the the entire sports world. Sterilizing the games does not make them more entertaining. It makes the games less entertaining, even if they are more "accurate." I see value in the pitch clock, but I don't see a lot of actual entertainment value in robot umps and the only thing which is valuable about baseball is the "entertainment value."

No, NO! N. O. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! - Calculon

Falvey hired a great coach and he absolutely gets credit for hiring him. The way the article reads to me is Garver had to seek the guy out. It's Levine's job to send Swanson to work with Garver, not the other way around. Garver, or any other prospect in the system, should not have to beg to get coaching. It's the front office's job to recognize issues and assign coaches to contact the player or instruct the player to contact a coach. If Falvey had not "green lighted" the coach to work with Garver, that would have been the height of incompetence. Now, depending on the way you interpret the article, it could read as though Levine (who should have been the one involved here) told Mitch Garver about Tanner Swanson and instructed Mitch Garver to get in contact with him because Garver's skills weren't good enough. The article does not read that way to me.

Where did you get the impression the Twins were considering Polanco as the shortstop? Falvey specifically mentioned even considering Austin Martin for the job, but is open to a veteran signing in the exact same way they were last year. https://www.startribune.com/royce-lewis-isnt-ready-so-jorge-polanco-should-return-to-twins-shortstop/600103985/ I mean, it's certainly not impossible, but I haven't seen anything from Falvey or Levine indicating they were planning on Polanco being the shortstop.

He totally could. He could blow Akil Baddoo out of the water, in fact, but the Twins don't have a good reason to rush him to the MLB level because he doesn't need to be on the 26 man or returned to another team. Lewis hasn't played competitive baseball in two years and is coming off a major surgery which can end careers. I'd rather give Lewis Spring Training and a couple months between AA/AAA before calling him up. Like I said, if Lewis gets 400 PA with the Twins, it would signal Lewis simply forced his way onto the roster by playing simply outstanding. That's a great thing.

Garver does not disagree with my take that he took the initiative to improve his catching game from what I read. The Twins didn't approach Garver about the changes, Garver seeked the changes out. At least that's how I read it. It's pretty clear Falvey, Levine and Molitor had the same outlook on Garver based on how he was handled based on what I saw. a quote from the article you linked: "He had heard that a coach hired the previous season was working miracles with the Twins’ minor league catchers. So Garver called Tanner Swanson and invited him to Albuquerque."

Well, the Twins had 1 pitcher eclipse 1.9 fWAR in 2021, and they're no longer on the team. Steamer shows Ober and Ryan as serviceable back end rotation arms, which, to be honest, is pretty darn good considering they're both making league minimum. Zips seems as bullish on the pitchers performance level, but less on the innings. A good team would normally be expected to get 20+ WAR from their position players and 20+ WAR from their pitching staff. The Twins weren't too far off in the hitting category, but their pitching was miserable. An embarrassing 8.2 fWAR from the entire staff... and 2.4 of those came from Berrios. The #3 and #2 pitchers were Taylor Rogers had 1.6 fWAR, Kenta Maeda 1.7 fWAR. When your closer, who plays half a season is virtually tied with the best starter still on your team (who is also missing at least 1/2 of next season), that's not a great endorsement for expectations, lol. That said, we'll just have to see what happens. Also, Royce Lewis will not be playing at the MLB level prior to a cup of coffee in 2022 barring some sort of miraculous performance in the minors so any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success, and if he gets 400 plate appearances, that would mean he would have needed to look incredible in spring training and the first month or two of the season.

Mauer forced Little to drink half and half despite being lactose intolerant, convinced Little would get better if he put on weight.

He'll be scapegoated if Falvey and Levine are on the hot seat.

Larnach getting a call before midseason seems unreasonable based on how badly he struggled against almost anything other than a 4 seam fastball last year at the MLB level and how he failed to turn it around after a demotion to AAA. Rooker is much quicker than he gets credit for, but he gets bad jumps on balls. He's probably a servicable corner outfielder, but he needs to prove it was crazy bad luck that kept his production low rather than the shift, etc. Wallner has 40 grade speed with a projection of 35 speed on fangraphs (ouch). He's a DH unless he can improve the athleticism. Garlick could maybe handle a corner spot if given the opportunity. He just doesn't have a lot of track record and he's not a good option for a 4th outfielder because he can't cover center. Kirilloff would be worth a lot more in the corners than 1B. Fangraphs has Kirilloff as a 30 grade speed, though I'm not sure how they came to that conclusion and MLB has him as a 50 grade. Kirilloff managed a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed (60th percentile in MLB) which is more than enough for the corners. Kepler is a solid corner outfielder. He's dropped some speed in the past couple years so he's probably no longer a valid option in center field like he was in 2019. He's a known quanitity worth starting as an everyday player. Martin is seen as a second baseman by most scouts. He doesn't appear to have the range for center field or the arm for SS or 3rd base. Celestino is a center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It would be a waste to stick him in the corners where his limited bat would do far less for value creation. Considering Buxton is going to be hurt for 80-100 games next year, Celestino is best used as a replacement there. Cave profiles as a AAAA player. Fisher has generated a grand total of -0.1 fWAR in his career. He's MiLB depth as far as I'm concerned. The rest of the farm options are not ready, emergency backups or MiLB depth, IMHO. I think it would be fair to say the Twins have a lot of players who technically play corner outfielder at some level or another. They have precious few proven MLB caliber corner outfielders.

"analytics" are neither magic spells nor fairy dust you can sprinkle on players. Analytics are computer calculated statistics to spot historical trends. The same thing good scouts and coaches do but with lots and lots of raw data instead of inherently visualizing things and comparing to historical experience of other visuals. I haven't seen anything the Favley and Levine front office has to hang their hat on right now. I'm sure there will be plenty of information this year. I don't see any significant improvement in Sano or Kepler or Odorizzi or Pineda vs. what they were before Falvey got a hold of them. Falvey & Levine seemingly get a lot of undeserved credit for Garver, who they nearly ran out of town. Garver took the initiative. Garver made Garver better. Buxton made Buxton better by not listening to coaches and just putting on 30lbs of muscle. Ultimately, I think this topic boils down to: Is the current FO better than Terry Ryan's 2nd tenure? Maybe? Ryan's 2nd tenure was bad and we have the final history to prove the case. We don't have any final history on Falvey, but as of right now, this moment, the two front offices look fairly similar to me in terms of grades, but Falvey's work is only half way done. He could knock it out of the park still.