bean5302

I got the impression there is a difference in terminology here. Tanking for a higher draft pick vs. tanking (rebuild) being at the heart of it. I don't think there are MLB teams actively tanking to secure a higher 1st round draft position and I believe that's the position other people have meant when they say there isn't "tanking" in MLB. I didn't get the impression anybody has said they don't believe teams rebuild or go through long bouts of being non-competitive in MLB but I may have missed it in comments.

Here are the 100 loss teams and their payrolls over the past 5 full seasons: 2021 - Orioles ($45.7MM), Rangers ($84.9MM), Pirates ($35.9MM), Diamondbacks ($89.1MM) 2019 - Orioles ($61.1MM), Royals ($67.9MM), Tigers ($98.0MM), Marlins ($69.5MM) 2018 - Orioles ($143.0MM), White Sox ($72.1MM), Royals ($129.9MM) 2017 - None 2016 - Twins ($108.2MM) I'd have to do a more thorough analysis of how to identify "tanking" teams, but 75% of the teams losing 100 games or more over the past 5 full seasons have been under the proposed $100MM salary floor owners made to the MLBPA a couple months ago. There's no doubt spending correlates with wins in sports.

I think that's about half right. They're not actively trying to lose because losing reduces revenue, but they are actively saying "I don't care if we win or not because I can guarantee at least a small profit by tanking."

Teams might still be terrible, but that's not the issue. Some team is ultimately going to draw the short straw and lose a lot of games. The Twins had what looked like a competitive roster this year, but injuries and poor play led to a bad season record. The issue is teams not even trying to be competitive and committing to long stretches of non-competitive baseball during rebuilds. The Marlins and Pirates' of the league, if you will.

I had never even considered this. Of course Mauer would be behind it! He's got Buxton believing the old phrase "Absence makes the heart grow fonder." It suddenly all makes sense!

I honestly just feel like the Luxury Tax Floor works. Same penalties for going under as going over. Tax teams under the floor and potentially take away draft picks.

From my actual post above: Buxton is scouted "better" than Lewis I make no claims that Lewis will have a better career or produce more than Buxton. I am claiming Lewis' baseball skills are similar to Buxton. Hit tool, power tool, arm tool. Lewis' speed is supposedly a tick below Buxton and Lewis' defensive value is questionable right now because of error rates which look unplayable from years ago. In pure athletic baseball ability, Lewis and Buxton are not oceans apart.

Salary/Luxury floor. It's already in discussions. The NBA is a game where a single player can carry a team into the playoffs. Consider LeBron James recording seasons with 11.79 VORP (WAR). You might say, oh, well MLB sometimes has 10 WAR players... but that's across 162 games. The NBA has half the games making a single win worth twice as much. If you convered James' 11.79 VORP season to MLB, that'd be 23.58 WAR. Also, the value of NBA draft picks is dramatically higher than MLB picks. https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5 In this analysis, a #1 pick is 63% likely to be an All Star during their career. By the #5 pick, the probability is down to about 30%. By the #10 pick, less than 15%. Rebuilding MLB teams know the #1 pick is valuable, but how much more value over the #5 pick is less clear.

I gave some examples of off the charts achievements to give a frame of reference for what that might look like for tools. I'm not sorry you've recognized how Buxton's accomplishments cannot even be framed as competitve with those examples. You literally said Buxton was off the charts on hit tool, run tool and defense which is why it was fair to compare him to Trout, who was looking like potentially the best player in MLB history, but not fair to compare Lewis to Buxton, who looks like a sub-MVP level talent on actual, real life results basis. While I don't think off the charts in any specific category would make a player super human, having all his tools off the charts is no longer something a human could reasonably accomplish in baseball. There's no way I'm going to let you walk back what you wrote on this. You essentially called Buxton super-human, i.e. a god. That inability to reconcile Buxton's actual performance and achievements with the mental and emotional view of what he may represent is one of my biggest pet peeves surrounding this historical meltdown of Twins fans in regard to Buxton's status. The way they have elevated Buxton's theoretical limits to beyond human and then converted those theoretical limits to real world accomplishments. It's disrespectful to other baseball players who have actually been awarded things like MVPs for tremendous accomplishments on the field and it's also a disservice to Buxton himself who cannot possibly live up to the climbing hype-spiral. Outperformed peak Trout? For 100 at bats. Wow. No player in history has ever outperformed peak full season Trout value over a 24 game sample. Joe Mauer - 2009 - 24 G, 104 PA, .429/.519/.881, 1.400 OPS. 1.282 WPA Carlos Gomez - 2013 - 24 G, 95 PA, .465/.516/.837, 1.353 OPS. 1.913 WPA Byron Buxton - 2021 - 24 G, 98 PA, .370/.408/.772, 1.180 OPS. 1.044 WPA Danny Santana. - 2014 - 24 G, 87 PA, .370/.407/.506, .913 OPS, 0.923 WPA https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/26653/the-call-up-byron-buxton/ Hit - Power(Potential) - Speed - Arm - Defense(Potential) Buxton(2015) - 50 - 45/60 - 85 - 60 - 70/80 Lewis(2021) - 50 - 50/60 - 70 - 60 - 40/60 I think that's a fair assessment of Lewis right now and a fair assessment of Buxton based on Baseball Prospectus' "call up" scouting report for the time. Buxton is scouted "better" than Lewis, but the two are similar enough that just looking at a tools list wouldn't write them off as different planes of value.

Buxton has known for years reckless play caused him to miss hundreds of games, but he continued the trend. He may back off as he's maturing and can probably see the big picture a little clearer, but he's beaten himself up quite a bit now. Will the surgically repaired shoulder, surgically repaired finger, a history of back spams, concussions, migraines, various strains of legs, hips, wrists and hands along with multiple broken bones allow him to ever be healthy? I'm serious. That's his injury history, paraphrased. Injuries add up. They become chronic as scar tissue builds up, bones calcify, ligaments and tendons stretch, etc. Buxton would be in the position to decide... make the spectacular catch like he wants to which he also knows will increase his value if he's successful vs. risking that catch injures him and that injury will decrease his value. Is that a decision he can make in a split-second, conscious decision?

You're right. Royce Lewis... chopped liver. What a bummer the Twins were forced to draft him #1 overall. There's Byron Buxton and then humans. I'm not sure Buxton shouldn't just walk to the plate when he's hurt and have the pitchers kneel while allowing him to walk around the bases for an inside the park home run while in his casts. When Buxton breaks the single season home run record set by Barry Bonds of 73 in 2001 while simultaneously being the first hitter to bat .400 since Ted Williams in 1941, it'll certainly be the same year as he sprints far faster than any MLB player and throws harder than Aaron Hicks' 105.5mph throw in 2016. I bet Buxton will get a special exemption and play for 2 teams at the same time one day game and one night game per day and not miss a single game while racking up 50 WAR next year. Easy. What makes Buxton special isn't him being peerless in every category, it's him being excellent in most categories. Buxton's hit tool is a 40-50, tops. The guy is a career .248 hitter with a .299 OBP and there were serious questions about it by the time he was debuting at MLB. Buxton was the fastest player in MLB by a solid 0.5ft/sec. He'd probably grade as an 85 speed (if there was such a thing) before he gained weight for power and perceived durability. There's probably nothing else which could be graded as "80" or better based on the real data rather than hype. His fastest throw from the outfield? 99mph. Most home runs? 19. Highest batting average ever? .306. Highest OBP ever? .358. Let's get back to reality; Buxton isn't even a top 3 center fielder over his career. Bader, Kiermaier and Hamilton all have higher UZR/150s than Buxton from 2015-2021 among players with at least 2,000 innings at CF. Buxton is a good player. Maybe even a great one, if every "great" year he's had didn't come with the caveat (SSS) next to it. Annointing him as some sort of god is a bit far fetched.

I'm pretty sure it was a comment about no prospect in MLB having the tools Buxton does. FWIW, Twins fans sites were all calling Buxton the next Mike Trout while Trout was winning MVPs and Buxton was just out of rookie ball.

Yes. Seriously. Lewis has plus plus speed. Lewis has a plus arm. Lewis has plus raw power. The hit tool is a bit of a question (just like Buxton). There's a reason Lewis was drafted #1 overall.

For a 7 year veteran who's never even been an All Star selection, people sure are wound up. I don't think Buxton is worth nearly as much as other people on this site because you need 2 starting center fielders to have Buxton and the Twins would need to pay both of them because Buxton will be hurt 1/2 the season. That's just how it is. Assume the Twins sign Buxton at $16MM / year with the expectation of competing. They'd be out of their minds not to have another starting center fielder signed because Buxton will only play 60-80 games. Say the Twins sign Starling Marte for the 4 years and $80MM and Marte spends half his time at center and half splitting time with Celestino in left. Buxton / Marte = $26MM year = 5.5 WAR Kepler = $6.75MM = 2.0 WAR Marte / Celestino = $10MM = 2.75 WAR WAR needed from competitive outfield = 2.5 x 3 = 7.5. Actual outfield = $42.75MM / 10.25 WAR. Surplus = 2.75 WAR. The Twins outfield will be pretty mediocre using this method. Marte = $20MM year = 5.0 WAR Kepler = $6.75MM = 2.0 WAR Celestinto $0.50MM = 2.0 WAR Actual outfield = $27.25 = 9.0 WAR. In the keep Buxton scenario, the Twins pick up 1.25 WAR for a cost of $15.50MM. A terrible deal.

Royce Lewis does and he's not even outside the franchise.

The Blue Jays started talking to Berrios about an extension almost day 1 of having him. It took 4 months to get an agreement in place.

"No" to trading for a 1 year pitcher without negotiating an extension before the trade. What does a Bassitt extension look like? Tough to say. Bassitt is getting up there in terms of free agent pitchers. He'll be 33 next year and his xFIP hasn't looked great. Quite frankly, he scares me because his career ERAs/FIPs are in line, but the last few years, he's outperformed the xFIPs dramatically. His home/road splits were substantial last year, but the HR/FB rate tracked whether or not he was in Oakland.

MLB teams try to buy wins at $6MM / WAR. MLB teams generally get wins at a cost of $8MM / WAR. Berrios has proven himself as a 4 WAR pitcher at this point so in free agency, I could see Berrios getting up to $24MM per season. Keep in mind, that's not proven "Ace" money. Guys like Scherzer, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Greinke have all commanded well over $30MM / season. Based on how the Twins started negotiations with Berrios at the same time as Kepler and Polanco, I would wager the Twins were never ready to concede the concept of a bargain coming their way. Kepler and Polanco signed deals which were largely viewed as abusively in favor of the Twins. Those extensions were used as examples of how the MLBPA and CBA had failed MLB players right about the time it was revealed the Twins front office had won a trophy for beating down arbitration eligible players the hardest in MLB about the same time. Neither Polanco nor Kepler had the advantage Berrios did, though. Berrios had some track record and he was in a coveted position as a starting pitcher. Polanco was not viewed as a shortstop and Kepler played RF. Berrios was willing to bet on himself and it paid off. I'm sure the front office is confused at the idea Berrios was already worth more to Toronto after a couple months than he was to the Twins after they grew him in their own farm system.

A little bird on the internet told me. I don't think it's officially announced.

Word is Palacios is signed and he needs to be on the 40 man. He didn't appear on the MiLB free agency report. As such, I'd expect to see him at Spring Training. I could see him getting the utility infielder job if Arraez is traded with Gordon getting the utility outfielder role.

Kilts and tartans covering the entire sky!

Ryan pitched about 115 innings in total last year between AAA, MLB and the Olympics. Modern pitchers go 5-6 innings per start so that would be 160-192 innings if he started all 32 games. I wouldn't expect the Twins to be looking to limit his innings below 160. I also believe the Twins are more likely to implement a pitch count limit than an actual innings limit so it may come down to how efficient Ryan is during the season. Even more will depend on how Ryan feels and any signs of fatigue. In regard to Ober, I'd also think the Twins wouldn't be concerned about him throwing 160 innings. Injuries have riddled Ober's career so here's hoping he stays healthy, but expecting 32 starts out of him might be considered pretty optimistic. Ober pounds the strike zone and walks few hitters so I'd expect him to be pretty efficient when effective. With Ober's age, I'd think the Twins would pretty much leave it up to how Ober feels or signs of him fading due to fatigue. In regard to their overall performance, I'd hope both can keep their ERA/FIP under 4.50. That would be a success. Everything under 4.25 would be ice cream on top.

SDI rankings shouldn't be used with teams that shift a lot. UZR/150 = -1.1 = Average Shortstop Range Factor / 9 = 4.03 vs. league average 3.81 = Excellent SDI = 11.8 = Excellent Range Factor and SDI aren't accurate for modern baseball because they don't account for the shift. Range Factor and SDI are based on how many outs the fielder is making directly or assisting with. The Twins shift a lot meaning Simmons gets more opportunities to field balls so the Range Factor and SDI values are inflated.

So much of what St. Peter talks about is really just perserverence. Be willing to take job risks. Be willing to move. Be willing to start your own business, even. Network with people. It's a recipe for higher income and more options in terms of where you want to be in any company or industry hierarchy across the board. If you remain committed, you'll eventually find yourself in a spot you want.

Wallner is really impressing in the Arizona Fall League. He's managed to keep his overall strike out rate under 30.0% with a walk rate right at 10.0% and I think that's the part I'm most excited about seeing. It lends a little credence to him being able to transistion to high minors and MLB without probably relying entirely on mistake pitches. That said, I think I'm calculating a .473 BABIP, which is ludicrously high.