bean5302

If the owners feel a deal is imminent, they could end the lockout now and get players into Spring Training while the final issues get hammered out.

Ken Griffey, Jr. was arguably just as good as Willie Mays for their age 20-29 years. After that, injuries piled up and Griffey, Jr. faded while Mays got even better in his early 30s and remained in his prime production for 6 years longer than Griffey, Jr. One of the following is Willie Mays and one is Ken Griffey, Jr. a20-29 seasons. .302/.384/.581 OPS .965, OPS+ 152, 67.5 bWAR .317/.390/.585 OPS .975, OPS+ 158, 68.1 bWAR There's no doubt Mays had the superior career, but in terms in how well they were loved and in talent and production before injuries, arguing Mays and Griffey, Jr. are in different leagues isn't reasonable, IMHO.

Arraez primarily had issues with inflammation and fluid build up after ACL surgery on a knee. In addition, last year, Arraez was dealing with knee tendonitis in his other knee. Arraez was told by Twins trainers and medical staff that strengthening his lower body and slimming up could allievate his issues from my understanding. It's straightforward PT protocol for those types of knee pain issues across pretty much any activity. Strengthen the surrounding muscle to relieve stress on the joint and trim some excess weight. It has the added benefit of increasing mobility. It remains to be seen how much work Arraez has put into it, but if Arraez does commit himself, it could have a huge payday behind it.

Any team could acquire an ace at any time. Literally, every single day of the regular or off season. The Pittsburgh Pirates could get Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, for instance. It's all a matter of what the team wants to pay. Aside from that, what difference does it make if the Twins have Montas for 2 years? They gain two or three wins per season, maybe? They avoided 90 losses last year by the skin of their teeth and good fortune with a much more trustworthy roster than they have right now.

Because the professional coaches who are paid to identify and correct things which could lead to players being unsuccessful at the MLB level thought Martin could benefit from a change is what I'd go with. Buxton has made tons and tons and tons of changes to his swing. Some at the direction of coaches; some at his own direction.

Lots to like about Garver and I've been a big proponent of him for years. Hopefully, Garver will remain healthy this year. I think it's a big ask considering the concussion history and myriad of injuries which have mirrored Buxton in a lot of ways, but it would be huge for Garver to get a full, productive season in at this point. After being horribly mishandled by the Twins, he's finally approaching free agency. I'd imagine Garver had to have been a big proponent of the age 30 free agency change that MLBPA abandoned, but it's clear he's toting the line when it comes to negotiations. It makes me sad because I just don't see an end to the lockout when I read conversations like this. The sport is on the field, not off it.

Interpreting the data. Fielding and hitting. Also, Palacios is on a MiLB contract as he was a MiLB free agent and could have signed anywhere at the end of last year. I think it sets a bad example not to give him a shot and pass him by with a guy who didn't perform as well who doesn't need to be added to the 40 man before giving Palacios a chance to play. It's worth noting Palacios destroyed the Venezuelan Winter League as well. .351/.430/.557 OPS .987. Palacios has precious little left to prove at age 24.

Cavaco = PTBNL at this point. Can't hit. Can't field and 3 years in the system. It looked like he was maybe turning a corner around mid-year when he tanked hard again. It will take a small miracle for Cavaco not to wash out of baseball this year.

Of the entire Twins roster, here are the guys I believe they can count on to be productive, pull their own weight players. Donaldson Polanco Kepler Buxton Here are the guys who will probably be productive, pull their own weight players. Ryan Ober Arraez Garver That's it. The every day guys who will probably produce 2 WAR or more. All 8 of the 14 positions you'd want to be confident in. Like half the roster is filler or unproven. Here are roster filler guys Sano Gordon Dobnak Strotman Jax Here are question marks Larnach Rooker Kirilloff Celestino Miranda Winder Balazovic Rortvedt Thorpe Bundy Jeffers I think the Twins have a few things to figure out before they sell the farm for an ace. I think fans believe the Twins are close or "hey, they did it in 2019 and 2020!" but the AL Central is nothing like the division it was when the opportunity to "put the boot on the neck" was casually passed on by this front office. The White Sox look potentially elite. The Tigers look very good and have more payroll to play with. The Royals have a better farm system as well, and an owner more willing to spend than the Pohlads. Actually, only maybe the Guardians are as tight fisted with money as the Pohlads, but Cleveland was clearly a better team than Minnesota last year, finishing 7 games ahead in the standings. The Twins are not as good as they were last year on paper. No Berrios. No Maeda. No Cruz. Questionable on Rogers. Those are big shoes to fill and right now, Minnesota is filling them with "ifs"

Not sure what that would prove about Palacios since he already played primary starting shortstop for the Wind Surge all last year. If there's anything to learn about Palacios, probably not going to happen in Wichita. I do still suspect Martin would get the nod for AAA despite being outplayed by Palacios.

Maybe prospects who are rehabbing long term injuries who will now not miss as much time due to injury because they're missing time due to the lockout like Blayne Enlow. Otherwise, it depends on the delay. If a large chunk of the season is lost, close players like Palacios or Martin who are not on the 40 man roster and could potentially play their way into a roster spot before the MLB season starts.

I mean... it's a little ironic you talk about just letting him play and then writing several paragraphs lavishing praise and accolades upon him before coming to the conclusion he's a future stud.

Absolutely possible to not have the arm for SS, but an arm for OF. I'd rank arm strength as important in order for the positions. Shortstop - Fields more balls than any other position, often plays deeper than other infielders and strong arm needed for double plays and far throws to home and first. Catcher - Controlling run game. Third Base - Similar to shortstop, but fields far fewer balls. Right Field - Controlling runners attempting to make triples or tagging and advancing to 3rd or home. Center Field - Fields more balls than other outfielders, controlling advancing base runners tagging up, mostly to home, but occasionally to 3rd. Second Base - Long throws are not needed, but arm strength helpful for double plays. Left Field - Fields far fewer balls than 2nd base, only needs plus arm strength to control potential tags at 3rd to home. First Base - Rarely needs to throw to any base. Something like that.

Top 100 includes high ceiling and high floor guys and there's little difference between a player ranked 100 or 200. It's all subjective. Winder and Balazovic are both potential mid-rotation guys, maybe even higher than that. The Twins don't even know what they have to know what they need, but one this is for certain... if there isn't an utterly massive turnover on the roster or a bunch of players taking huge steps forward, the Twins don't stand a snowballs chance in hell of competing against what look like very good Tigers and White Sox teams this year. This isn't 2019 where everybody else in the entire division was hot garbage in the sun. Falvey was brought in to develop the minors and especially pitchers. Gutting a farm system for some medicore pitchers? Anybody can do that. Considering how little the Twins know about what they have on either side of the plate, the suggestion to gut the farm system's pitching in the hopes a couple mediocre to good arms can save the day seems more like flailing around without direction to me. If that's what Falvey brings, I'd rather somebody bring him a pink slip today.

The scouting profiles are Martin are have less elation built in. Fangraphs Hit 50/60, Game Power 30/40, Speed 50/50, Field 35/45, FV 50 MLB Hit 65, Power 45, Run 55, Arm 45, Field 50, Overall 55 Prospects Live Hit 70, Power 50, Run 50, Arm 50, Field 55, OFP 55 pre-draft Baseball America Hit 70, Power 55, Run 55, Arm 50, Field 50 Basically, it's universally expected Martin's hit tool will be excellent, but he's an average runner with perhaps below average power and throwing skills. That said, scouting reports can be pretty subjective. Martin strikes me as a high floor, medium ceiling kind of player at this point. Grades on his speed and arm are average, but scouting reports are subjective. The best comp for him on the Twins is probably somewhere between Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco. If Martin does work out that way, he could be a 3-4 WAR player with a couple career All Star Game appearances.

MiLB stats prove a player is ready for a promotion. It doesn't prove they'll perform in MLB. I use Chris Parmelee as an example all the time. a24 AAA = .338/.457/.645 1.102 OPS, 18% BB, 18% K. .307 ISO I think Miranda will be good, but I'm not willing to make his comp a former MVP based on a single year of performance in the minors after he was left exposed to the rule 5. If that's what we were doing, Jermaine Palacios should be the Twins' #5 prospect.

I grovel at the feet of your army of strawman arguments. Please enlighten me, oh master of strawmen! Back to reality. 57% of Miguel Sano's .847 OPS was batting average and Sano's 2nd half batting average of .250 was the same as the median MLB hitter with 200+ plate appearances. His batting average in the 2nd half was average. Normal. Nowhere have I or would I say batting average is the only component which matters in offensive production. It is; however, an important one. You using OPS (which almost 60% constructed of batting average alone in the example you gave) as the offensive metric which is important speaks volumes here. Let's use your preferred example. Miguel Sano. 1st Half - .196/.279/.426 OPS .705 wRC+ 91 with a 10.1% BB adding 83pts to OPS and ISO adding 230. 2nd Half - .250/.343/.504 OPS .847 wRC+ 129 with a 12.0% BB adding 93pts to OPS and ISO adding 254. What was the difference between 10% below average to 30% above average performance? Batting average. 108pts of OPS was all batting average. 10pts was BB rate. 24pts was extra base hits. Miguel Sano's batting average made 10x more of a difference in his OPS than walks and 5x more than his extra base hits. Had his walk rate and power remained identical from the first half to the second half, Sano still would have gone from OPS .705 to OPS .813 and from 10% worse than average to 20% better all on batting averge alone.

Nobody compared Miranda to Donaldson. Donaldson had an extremely unlucky year last year, which is totally out of character for his history. Donaldson is one of the best hitters in MLB and he was playing on a hurt calf. Donaldson could easily rebound and put up a 4-5 WAR season this year. Miranda putting together an average starting third baseman season at 2.5 bWAR wouldn't be comparing him to Donaldson, but the number of every day starters at the top end of any team's farm system is low. I think Twins fans are a little high on Miranda right now, but only time will tell whether the excitement is warranted. The Twins' system is pretty deep with potential so Miranda could be anywhere in the top 8ish.

Lewis' ability to stick at shortstop depends on his ability to stop making errors instead of outs. His arm has been questioned somewhat due to a slower than optimal release, but the Twins and Lewis were said to have worked a lot on that during 2020's off site. I think Lewis will either quickly silence the doubters or he'll fall out of the top 20 Twins prospects this year. I doubt there's much middle ground to be honest. Let's hope he tears it up!

SSS's are SSS regardless of the metric you look at. Batting average is about 1/3-1/2 of the value in On Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) as batting average is counted twice in OPS, being the largest component of both On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for most players. Willie McGee posted a .746 OPS (94 OPS+) in 1987. Batting average accounted for 3/4 (.570) of his entire OPS (.746). https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-the-deadened-baseball-could-alter-mlb-strategy-in-2021/ "Major League Baseball sent a memo to all 30 teams in February outlining changes to the ball for the upcoming season. The changes, which were first reported by The Athletic, were designed to deaden the ball in response to the soaring home run rates of recent years. A record 6,776 home runs were hit during the 2019 season. The home run rate of 6.6% in 2019 decreased only slightly to 6.5% in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season." MLB is very much trying to get more balls put into play in the field.

Prospect rankings are valuable; however, they're hardly steadfastly reliable and Hicks was a concensus top 30 prospect. Benson cracked Baseball America's top 100. They were good. They were recognized as good. Draft position determines a heck of a lot in regard to prospect rankings in the early years. Even so, the number 1 overall draft pick is expected to perform at a high level right out of the gate. "Generally against much older and experienced competition" is the apologist excuse for every single underperforming Twins prospect profiled on this site since it's founding. It's valid, to an extent, with rough prospects. Guys taken in 3rd round and later or really raw guys taken later in the first round. It is much less acceptable as an excuse for the #1 overall pick. While I'm bullish on Lewis because I want him to succeed and I really love his athleticism and attitude, "against much older and experienced competition" doesn't mean he should be terrible defensively (he was) and it provides precious little excuse for back to back below average offensive performances in A+ and AA. Lewis' prospect rank is irrelevant as it doesn't have an impact on when or if the Twins call him up and doesn't change his contract. Looking at the recent history of 1st overall draft picks and how many years of experience playing in the minors before they started playing at the MLB level, the pattern is pretty evident. The first overall pick usually moves quickly through the minors because they're playing extremely well (against players who are much older and more experienced). 2010 = 2yrs a19 (2x MVP, 6x All Star, RoY) 2011 = 2yrs a22 (4x All Star) 2012 = 3yrs a20 (2x All Star, RoY) 2013 = 3yrs AAA, retired after multiple shoulder injuries, returned 2014 = 1yr A Ball, retired after injuries 2015 = 1yr, a22 (Average MLB Starting SS) 2016 = 4yrs, a22 (has not looked good) 2017 = 4yrs, AA, a22 (Royce Lewis) 2018 = 2yrs, a23 (3.2 bWAR in 2021, looks potentially mid-rotation) 2019 = 2yrs, AAA, a23 (solid defense, dominant bat high minors as catcher last year) 2020 = 1yr, AAA, a21 (crushed high minors pitching, 1.157 OPS in AFL. will start season in MLB probably) 2021 = 1yr, A+, a22 (.308/.387/.808, OPS 1.195 in Rk and A+ last year after draft as catcher) IMHO, Lewis needed 2020 off so he could spend time at the off site working to address the major issues in his game which were widely exposed in A+ and AA and I think put him into a position where he was likely to struggle at AA again. The loss of 2021 really sucked for everybody, but for Lewis who hasn't been impressive considering his draft position so far, it's given him a chance to mature, address issues in his approaches and game and hopefully the athleticism will shine. Either he has what it takes or he doesn't and that will likely all be known in a few short months of play because the excuses time has totally run out. If Lewis struggles both at the plate and in the field again in the minors, the books can be closed on him in a few short months. It will be because all the altheticism in the world doesn't mean guys will be able to track and adjust to breaking balls or have the confidence to field balls cleanly and throw accurately.

Are you talking about Sano's batting average or batting average in general? If it's batting average in general, I think that's way too bold of a statement. Batting average is very important. It's usually about 1/3 of a player's overall offensive production and almost never less than 1/4. I also think we're going to see an increase in the importance of batting average because I believe MLB is trying to reign in the days of the true 3 outcome hitter dominating MLB lineups.

Boras is irrelevant in my opinion. The Twins will pay whatever it is they think a player is worth and they'll almost certainly have 8+ years of team control over Rocker where Boras really isn't an issue anyway. I think Rocker will probably go off the board before the Twins have a chance to draft him if Rocker remains healthy and pitches in dominant fashion. I think he's equally (more) likely to blow out his UCL and need to take whatever any team is giving him, to be honest. In the case Rocker blows his UCL out, the Twins should be able to pick him up in later rounds... much later if MLB adopts the age 29.5 free agency rule. Guessing round 5+. Personally, I think Rocker took one for Boras and other college players last year by not signing at the reduced value, though I doubt he realized the risk. He's already 22. Figure a bare minimum of 2 years in the minors, then 6 years of team control and Rocker hits free agency at 30. If MLB adopts the 29.5 age free agency policy, Rocker will be less attractive to teams because he'll probably be a free agent after 4-5 years on the 40 man.

Royce Lewis' signing bonus was $6.725 million and he doesn't have a single decent performance in the minors at shortstop. Painting him as some sort of tragic victim of ill fate is a bit much. Lewis has the athleticism to be a Hall of Famer, but plenty of players had the physical attributes. For every Ron Acuna, there are 10 Aaron Hicks' and 100 Joe Bensons. The median household (including multiple people) income in the United States was $67,000. Royce Lewis' signing bonus was greater than the average household in the United States would earn in 2.5 lifetimes of work. At 5% interest on his net, after tax bonus, Royce Lewis would earn $200,000 a year on interest alone without ever working another day in his life

Looking at Sano's home runs in a vacuum make him look good, but evaluating his overall play turns him into a poor performing MLB player... or even a below average AAA replacement player. It's not the strikeouts, per se. It's how he strikes out and when he strikes out. Sano is an automatic out when the opposing team needs it which is why Sano consistently posts negative WPAs (Win Probability Added) and Sano's horrendous defense coupled with his poor on base skills and base running mitigate his offensive value in more traditional metrics. Then there are his personality and effort issues. Sano is a not a good MLB player, but he's got good power. I doubt anybody in here wouldn't absolutely love seeing a future where Sano shows up in shape at 225lbs and committed to working hard to improve his game in all facets. He'd be a 5 WAR player if he did this. Instead, he looks more like Oswaldo Arcia to me.