bean5302

With Steer being a 2B/3B and his bat being what I would call "adequate" in AA at age 23, I'm not convinced he's not a MiLB depth. I don't know as I'd rank Steer above Palacios.

No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one. I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22. Writing off his bat as below average is very premature.

Notably, the Twins ranked 20th of 30 teams in UZR in 2019 where they ranked DEAD LAST at shortstop by 6.7 runs. Polanco's metrics looked great at shortstop in the shortened 2020 when his fielding percentage was dramatically higher than any other time in his career. The Twins also deploy a far higher shift rate than average teams which inflates defensive value in many metrics meaning players like Polanco get extra credit for plays Brent Rooker could make at shortstop. Polanco is poor at shortstop, and that's a well established thing. It's also known by the Twins, which is why they mercifully ended the experiment and moved him to 2B last year. The only possible argument for Polanco at shortstop is "defense doesn't matter." The only reason I could potentially accept defense not mattering is it hasn't mattered as much over the past few years because of the increase of 3 true outcome plate appearances and aggressive shifting; however, MLB owners are actively pushing rules changes which would challenge the 3 outcome hitter dominance and there's certainly grumbling about the shift. Even then, the argument goes together with "I don't care if prospects get playing time" which I would only accept if the Twins were legitimately eyeing competitive play next year (and I see no signs they are.)

Two division titles are proof that a team can technically succeed in by far the weakest division in baseball with Polanco dragging them down at shortstop if they have enough talent to overcome Polanco's limitations. The single year in Polanco's entire career where he was good enough to earn a starting shortstop job was 2019. That year, he put together an All Star worthy 4.1 fWAR. He's never produced more than 1.6 fWAR in another season at shortstop. That's well below average and considering his lack of physical talent when it comes to his arm, he's certainly worse at shortstop than 2nd base. Second base is worth +2.5 positional runs. Shortstop is worth +7.5. I'd be more than willing to bet Polanco's physical limitations more than makes up for the positional value at shortstop. All that aside, the Twins are not likely to compete this coming year. With Falvey already talking about starting Austin Martin at shortstop, along with other options like Gordon, Palacios and Arraez, there is no need to shift around one of the most important and tenured players on the Twins just to fill holes as if he's some sort of utility player anyway.

...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971. Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.

All you have to do is look at Griffen Jax's peripherals to know luck got him through the first innings, not skill. First time through the order his ERA is 3.41, but his FIP is 5.10 and xFIP was 5.36.

This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop. No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years. Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?

Other than the Seattle Mariners, I think every single team in MLB has qualified for the playoffs in the past 8 years and a vast majority in the past 5. Atlanta ($127MM) vs. Houston ($171MM) Los Angeles ($286MM) vs. Tampa Bay ($78MM) Washington ($162MM) vs. Houston ($160MM) Los Angeles ($186MM) vs. Boston ($236MM) Los Angeles ($242MM) vs. Houston ($124MM) Chicago ($117MM) vs. Cleveland ($86MM) New York ($101MM) vs. Kansas City ($114MM) San Francisco ($154MM) vs. Kansas City ($92MM) St. Louis ($115MM) vs. Boston ($151MM) San Francisco ($118MM) vs. Detroit ($132MM) Over the past 10 years, the median opening day payroll (from Stevetheump.com) for teams in the World Series is $130MM.

Puckett didn't win any championships. The teams Puckett played on won those championships.

It's all up to the owners to make proposals I see. Honestly, there appear to be two sides for fans to take. 1) I don't like businesspeople with lots of money because I don't have lots of money. Therefore, wealthy businesspeople are evil and everything they do is bad. They have infinite money because they have a lot more than me and therefore, they shouldn't try to effectively run businesses. They should just do whatever players want! 2) The MLBPA proposals undermine the competitive balance of the sport, don't make any economic sense or accomplish the goals they've laid out and would result in the game being less entertaining. Their proposals are unreasonable and will damage MLB if owners accepted them.

The $100MM floor is to eliminate the tank/rebuild cycle. Tank/rebuild is viable method for teams, but it's not viable for the sport as a whole. $100MM is not too much for what MLB considers to be the minimal viable market and the floor would be used to push new stadiums, new ownership or moving franchises like Pittsburgh, Oakland and Tampa Bay. Not to mention the teams who do not engage in the tank/rebuild method are sick and tired of financing the teams who do run unacceptably low payrolls. The AL Central is as small market as it gets overall. Here are the max opening day payrolls by team. Detroit = $200MM (2017) Kansas City = $143MM (2017) Cleveland = $135MM (2018) Chicago = $129MM (2021) Minnesota = $129MM (2018)

I don't even need to read the article. This one isn't remotely close. Rod Carew.

To be frank, I consider the Twins Hall of Fame to be pretty embarrassing. It shows how pathetic the ownership of this franchise has been. Basically anybody with more than 3 years on the team is a shoe-in. The number of truly great Twins players is pretty short.

Yep. Greene was a potential shortstop. In addition, Greene had better control and is quite a bit taller than Petty with less a less violent delivery. I think the reports out say Petty honestly has a better slider, but Greene had 3 legit pitches where Petty's changeup was kind of a question mark. The top of the 2017 draft has largely been a bust to this point. Royce Lewis (AA), poor performance Hunter Greene (AAA), mediocre performance MacKinzie Gore (AAA), poor performance Brendan McKay (MLB), 1 year -0.2 bWAR Kyle Wright (MLB), 4 years, -0.5 bWAR career, best season 0.3 bWAR (2020) Austin Beck (AAA), poor performance Pavin Smith (MLB), 2 years, 0.0 bWAR career, best season 0.2 bWAR (2020) Adam Hasely (MLB), 3 years, 1.5 bWAR career, best season 1.8 bWAR (2019) Keston Hiura (MLB), 3 years, 0.6 bWAR career, best season 1.9 bWAR (2019) Jo Adell (MLB), 2 years, -1.2 bWAR career, best season 0.3 bWAR (2021) None of the top 10 picks has much accomplishment to their name. None of them have produced more than a single positive bWAR season and all of them have a negative bWAR season if they've made it to MLB.

We'll know how his pitches play quickly this year. The true aces out there generally move up through the minors very quickly. If Petty's fastball and slider are as good as advertised and he can throw the changeup, he should arrive 2024 at the latest. It'll be very exciting to see how his performance looks against a far higher level of competition in Ft. Myers than he was seeing in high school.

I think one thing is pretty certain, we'll know a lot more about Alcala and Celestino this year. Honestly, I think this is a make or break season for Falvey and his staff. Lewis, Cavaco, Larnach, Rooker. At least a couple of those guys need to really show up. One of either Martin or Woods-Richardson, too. Then there are the pitching prospects. We need a couple of Falvey's drafted prospects to perform at the MLB level as well.

Probably not is my line of thinking. Certainly not until he proves he's fully recovered from the injury and is back to being effective as a closer. Even after that point, I'd probably shop him around to see if he can bring good trade value. Only if it looks like Rogers isn't going to bring much back, but still is showing his elite form would I consider extending him. What would an extension look like for Rogers if he shows he's fully returned to form? I'd say 3-4 years and $45-55MM or so? Comps like Craig Kimbrel and Kanley Jansen went for much more. Will Smith went for 3 years and $40MM, but wasn't truly in Rogers' class. Even if the Twins were interested in extending Rogers, they may very walk balk at the price.

What the does Larnach have to do with 2B depth? I addressed depth for the whole position player roster. If ice cream sandwiches are better with Neopolitan ice cream than chocolate chip vanilla ice cream, then clearly Arraez isn't needed. However, if you like chocolate ice cream in your ice cream sandwich, then clearly, you can't count on the Twins' depth at 2B.

It doesn't matter if they're impressive to you or not. This is the depth the Twins have, and depth isn't supposed to be impressive. Depth is supposed to be adequate, which is why it's "depth." If teams are playing with impressive depth and outright holes at other positions, they're doing it wrong.

Liriano would have been exposed as the "throw strikes never" pitcher he was, but had he been able to avoid the injury in 2006, I also believe the Twins would likely have won the World Series. The UCL replacement was always going to happen with his throwing style and I don't believe it made a huge impact on his overall career. It was a nice, solid career, but he just didn't have control. Like hitters with big leg kicks, other crazy motions like Liriano's very unorthodox follow through lend themselves to critique where there are problems. Liriano's problem was not being able to throw strikes coupled possibly with long term durability if he kept the same slider he had pre TJ. In 2006, hitters simply didn't have a chance. There were no good MLB scouting reports and the velocity and movement of his slider gave him the name Liria-NO for hitters. Fun times.

I do like seeing the Twins active like this in the international market. I believe it's important to the pipeline to look at all avenues!

I do think Arraez could play shortstop... but he'd have to show up in great condition to pull it off. His weight limits his range and makes his knees injury prone. If he really conditioned himself, I believe his arm is strong enough and he could potentially handle the spot. As he was last year and previous years? No. This is similar to how I feel about Miguel Sano. He has all the tools necessary to be an outstanding 3rd baseman... but it would require dropping 60lbs.

C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, Rortvedt 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Rooker, Sano, Larnach Donaldson, Garver 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda 3B Depth - Donaldson, Miranda, Arraez SS Depth - ?, Gordon, Arraez, Palacios LF Depth - Rooker, Celestino, Larnach, Cave CF Depth - Buxton, Celestino, Cave RF Depth - Kepler, Celestino, Larnach, Cave DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson, Rooker There's a lot of depth... and that doesn't take Martin into consideration who Falvey talked about potentially using as the starting shortstop in 2022. Arraez is a 2B, which is where Martin is expected to end up according to the scouting community. We have more than enough depth there. Trading a starting 2B caliber player who is blocked at a position like Arraez, if he brings in good value, puts both Arraez and the Twins in a better position on paper.

Ober and Ryan did pretty damn well, man. Ober was arguably as good as Berrios over the last 10 starts. Joe Ryan pitched very well, too. Solid back end of the rotation arms at least with a ceiling of mid rotation... just the like much more expensive, and likely not as good veterans in this article.

It's important to consider contract values for these proposals and whether or not they fit within the Twins plans. I have a tendency to agree with the idea the Twins could use some bullpen help, but a lot depends on Taylor Rogers and whether or not he's recovered from nasty middle finger knuckle sprain/tear. The damage to Rogers' pulley tendon was pretty severe. I expect he'd know by now if the surgery was inevitable so I'm assuming he recovered because we've heard nothing about a surgery. Then again, with the lockout, not sure how that works. Colin McHugh 2 years $14MM Ryan Tepara (does not really throw sliders) is probably 1yr $3MM Brad Boxberger 1 year 3MM (similar to Duffey) Fangraphs bullpen projection with theoretical 40 man roster if the CBA was intact in bold. Rogers Duffey Alcala Thielbar Garza, Jr. Stashak Moran Cotton It's not a bullpen which would be expected to excel, and we're certainly weak for depth, but it would probably be adequate for a mediocre team. I'd think picking up Tepera is the best option to give a little more stability without over-spending. McHugh will be too expensive to justify unless Rogers was out for the season. Boxberger generated 0.8 fWAR last season... but over his past 7 seasons it looks like this: 0.0, (0.3), 0.3, (0.4), 0.0, 0.0, 0.8. The track record is too long to ignore the likelihood he's just not going to add value and there will probably be waiver claims and trade targets better.