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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Nope. Not currently. Way back in the day there were a few in Cuba, and within the last 20 years, Canada. I think the Blue Jays' A+ team is the only one which operates outside the US right now. Aside from the DSL stuff, anyway.
  2. bean5302
    The adductor strains generally take 3-6 weeks to heal up. Given how the team handles him, Royce is probably out until after the trade deadline. Makes sense to call up Lee, with Julien still struggling at AAA. Yes, I'm aware Julien is technically above average production down there thanks to a .462 OBP, but he has absolutely zero power. Has literally 1 extra base hit in his last 13 games (a double). Clearly, that's not going to cut it with his profile at the MLB level.
  3. bean5302
    Yep, getting absolutely insane with the Royce Lewis injury train at this point.
  4. bean5302
    I have to be honest, Dobnak has earned an opportunity somewhere. I don't think he's going to get it with the Twins, but he's probably a serviceable #5 for somebody right now. Since he's not on the 40 man, and he can't choose MiLB free agency next year without forfeiting his $3MM 2025 contract if he does, it's a bad spot for him. Boushley has kind of occupied Dobnak's position, taking over the veteran depth starter role on the 40 man. Elite ground ball rate, and solid at preventing home runs this year, Dobnak has elevated his K rate (at the cost of more walks). His 3.91 ERA is well above average in the International League, ranking 28th of 103 pitchers with 40+ innings this year and a 4.74 ERA median. Given his MLB experience, hopefully, Dobber gets a chance. He's under team control through 2028 for cheap if the team picks up his 2026 - $6MM, 2027 - $7MM, 2028 - $8.5MM. If he can serve as a back end rotation arm somewhere, it's likely those options are picked up.
  5. bean5302
    Can they redesignate a pitcher as a position player, call them up as a position player and still let them pitch in games that are out of control? LOL, I think they'd probably be able to get away with that...
  6. bean5302
    Severino - .425/.544/.688 OPS 1.231 wRC+ 216, 20.4% BB, 18.4% K 23G, 103 PA, 15G above wRC+ 100, RBI = 19 Wallner - .324/.403/.724 OPS 1.127, wRC+ 179, 10.9% BB, 27.7% K 26G, 119 PA, 17G above wRC+ 100, RBI = 28 Wallner has the home runs and a huge RBI advantage with a bunch of games where he carried the win, but the hitter of the month should have gone to Severino. Severino is slowly bringing his overall line into respectability.
  7. bean5302
    Line drives have a .675 BABIP Fly balls have a .250 BABIP Ground balls have a .200 BABIP Hit a lot of line drives and your BABIP is much higher.
  8. bean5302
    I think we can all agree, though, thank whatever deity, good fortune star, etc. we didn't get Baez.
  9. bean5302
    Steer has been playing out of position. OAA is literally the worst defensive metric you can find without 2-3 years of consistent play time. It's a wild metric like catcher framing. No, it's not early.
  10. bean5302
    I think the Twins are obsessed with "cutting edge" stuff in general. The sweeper is the most glaring example that comes to mind right now.
  11. bean5302
    I feel like this article was just written a couple weeks ago? This time, we've conveniently left Marcus Semien out of this article. He was a shortstop, but he was asked to slide over to 2B where his defensive numbers say he'd still be a solid shortstop. He has been the best contract handed out. Truth is, Correa wasn't on the radar in 2022, like at all. Boras called Falvey and offered him the deal after everybody else had already signed. Falvey got approval from the Pohlad's and tada! 3 years $105MM with what everybody expected was a 1 year $35MM deal as Correa was going to opt out barring catastrophe. Last year is a different story. Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Boegaerts, Carlos Correa were the big 4. The Twins offered 10yrs $285MM out of the gate so they were certainly in play. MLBTR predicted 9yrs $288MM for Correa in November. Ultimately, everybody knows how things played out. Of the shortstops available last year, Correa's final contract with the Twins is looking by far the best, IMHO.
  12. bean5302
    MRI is scheduled. I'm guessing they'll know exactly what they're doing as soon as it comes back. Lewis said he wasn't optimistic.
  13. bean5302
    Trevor Larnach hits a home run after sucking for two months: TD publishes a bunch of articles about how he's turned a corner, LOL.
  14. bean5302
    The sinker fell out of favor with the launch angle revolution. Guys had been increasingly swinging their bats like golf clubs to try and lift balls into the seats. An improperly placed sinker can put itself directly into the "Tiger Uppercut" whereas, say, 10 years ago, the flatter swings designed to hit more line drives and put the ball into play would make weak contact against the pitch. Obviously, putting any pitch in a location the batter isn't likely to put a good swing on it can make the pitch effective, but the sinker just became a dangerous gopher ball machine IMHO. Of course things may be changing again with the elimination of the extreme shift. Everything goes in circles.
  15. bean5302
    If Lewis' groin was so tight he couldn't run, he's probably out till after the All Star Break.
  16. bean5302
    The Twins paid for Manuel Margot to back up Buxton, though. Castro can't make the point moot because Margot is already on the roster.
  17. bean5302
    They've given KC a cost controlled depth starter and a reliever who is pitching extremely well in AAA, plus $4MM. It's still a second roster spot the Twins have to forfeit. The roster spot alone is worth $10MM, easy.
  18. bean5302
    You do not understand how teams value WAR. Let me help you. Michael A. Taylor put up 2 WAR last year (Byron Buxton's career average rate). He got 1 year and $4MM. I get it, though. Taylor was old, right? How about Eduardo Escobar with the Diamondbacks. Escobar was a 2-3 WAR player when he got his extension with them. He got 3 years and $21MM. How about Mark Cahna? Coming off a 3 year campaign where he averaged nearly 3 WAR per season, Cahna got 2yrs at $13MM AAV. Then there is Buxton. A career 2 WAR seasonal player who averaged about the same as Cahna because of injuries. Consistent, every single year, injuries. Having only once qualified in his entire career. 7 years $105MM before he was even a free agent. Teams pay top AAV and/or long contracts only to player with All Star levels of production. They have to be proven, and they have to produce over 3 WAR on average to get the big dollars. Buxton was neither.
  19. bean5302
    Sure. There are 26 roster positions in MLB. Byron Buxton occupies 2 of those roster positions. One for him, and one for the guy you need to back him up in CF. This isn't me being upset with Buxton. It just is what it is. He must have a backup and that takes money and a roster spot. We've seen what happens this year when he doesn't (Margot lost too much speed to cover, but the Twins traded for him to cover CF), and last year when he does (Michael A Taylor) $4.6MM + 2 prospects (a #5 depth starter and what looks like a good reliever). So the Twins are paying an extra $4MM a year for Buxton's backups, plus prospects. So Buxton is basically a 1 roster spot penalty and an extra few million in other players the Twins need to have to back him up. That's a lot more than $15MM / year. Buxton has averaged 2 WAR per season over his career. Teams try to buy WAR at $6MM per win in free agency, but injuries and underperformers drop the cost per win down to about $8MM. Buxton is worth, on average $16MM per year in terms of production himself since his contract was signed (and historically over his entire career). That ignores the truth, though. Teams don't give long contracts to 2 WAR players. They also don't try to buy them at $8MM/WAR. In any case, he has 2 seasons in 10 where he produced 4 wins, and he has never, in his entire career, posted more than 4.5 fWAR in a season (your outlandish $30MM clip figure). Last year, Buxton produced 0.6 fWAR (scrub level). This year, Buxton is a30 and producing at a 3 WARish clip on pace for the second season in his career over 92 games. Buxton's legitimate ceiling is probably 3 WAR at this point. Buxton is in decline. He is not going to get better. He no longer has elite defense. He is not going to get healthier in his 30s than he was in his 20s. The Twins paid dramatically over market rate for a declining Byron Buxton.
  20. bean5302
    Yep, the parallels with Buxton in terms of injuries are a real concern. The difference is Buxton was never going to be an elite bat because he can't get on base and he had tons of strikeouts.
  21. bean5302
    Royce Lewis is a monster. The only legitimate MVP candidate the Twins have seen on their roster since prime Joe Mauer. Lewis' xwOBA would rank 7th in all of MLB. His actual wOBA would rank 5th. Last year, his actual xwOBA would have ranked 4th. Injuries are the only thing stopping Lewis from being a superstar right now.
  22. bean5302
    Blake Snell, Zac Gallen, Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, Chris Bassitt.
  23. bean5302
    Agreed. It'd be quite a surprise for the Twins to trade for bats at the deadline. If they did make that kind of move, I'd suspect it'd be a RH power bat which they currently lack. J.D. Martinez would be the most likely target, but I suspect the bidding for him will be pretty high.
  24. bean5302
    If you viewed his contract in a vacuum, sure, but since Buxton cannot be the only starting caliber CF on the team, the Twins need to pay a premium for a starting caliber backup CF, who won't be playing CF, Buxton's true cost is higher.
  25. bean5302
    Steer was considered a solid enough infielder, not a DH, and he's been acceptable in the infield by UZR/150. Cincinatti has played him large in the outfield, where he hasn't played well. CES was bat only, but he looked pretty solid last year. Out this year with wrist surgery. That's two every day 2 WAR regular players with 6 years of team control each. The Twins also kicked one of their pitching prospects Cincinnati's way in the deal with Steve Hajjar, who's been a bust. The Twins paid a pretty big price for a guy who they were hoping would be good with a change of scenery to someplace outside the homer fueled Great American Ballpark. I would have wanted Mahle to undergo a physical before agreeing because of the recent IL stint so the deal probably wouldn't have happened. I agree with the desire to acquire a significant rotation upgrade when needed prior to a playoff run, but I favor aiming higher than mid-back rotation arms. I'll give up more for something which cannot be easily replaced.
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