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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It's hard enough just knowing if the kid is 16 or 26 down there, LOL.
  2. bean5302
    I'm in the minority who thinks trades should be viewed retrospectively vs. what actually happened (barring unforeseen injury). It doesn't really matter if a company's leadership is consistently explaining "it should have worked!" They get shown the door. In terms of actual value, it's unreal how successful the A.J. Pierzynski trade was. In fact, it indirectly even led to Jhoan Duran. Pierzynski -> Nathan + Liriano + Bonser Bonser -> Chris Province (end of story) Liriano -> Escobar + Pedro Hernandez Escobar -> Duran + Ernie De La Trinidad + Gabriel Maciel Nathan was a HoF caliber closer. No reason he shouldn't be in there. He was arguably the most dominant closer in all of baseball (including Mariano Rivera) for several years, and even with anybody over a 7 year peak. Liriano was a upper/mid rotation arm in his prime (better than Joe Ryan), and Bonser was serviceable as a back end starter. Like many fans... if only. If only Radke wasn't trying to pitch with a broken shoulder. If only Liriano hadn't torn his UCL. The Twins would be World Series Champions in 2006.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, but the odds the other team has 4 playoff caliber starters is also at a minimum so your back end guy vs. their back end guy. Evens the odds most of the time, haha.
  4. bean5302
    I don't huh? Oh if only it were 2023 again, but it's not. Go troll someplace else.
  5. bean5302
    It does matter if they keep him. Kyle Farmer is reducing the chances Twins win ball games when he plays. He is a known quantity, and since he's becoming a free agent, it's unlikely he has future value for the franchise. It doesn't matter who replaces Kyle Farmer because whomever the Twins choose (like from the list I provided) they won't reduce the chances the Twins win by any significant margin more than Kyle Farmer would, but the player chosen might significantly increase the odds the Twins win. Kyle Farmer is the floor of expectations and production. He's at 0.1 WAR so 0.3 WAR on 150 games. That's AAA replacement level. Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee were recently declared MiLB guys who were not ready to compete at the MLB level in a Manny Margot or Willi Castro thread recently by a substantial number of fans who love Santana or Margot whatever. Turns out... maybe they were ready for MLB? That's what the Twins are missing out on by keeping Kyle Farmer on the roster and in the lineup. Another potential Brooks Lee or Matt Wallner who are single handedly winning games lately while Farmer is out there losing them by getting TOOTBLAN if he actually does get on base. I have absolutely nothing against Farmer. I thought he'd be a solid player this year like he has so many years before, but he's not. In fact, if I was Farmer, I'd request an assignment to AAA in the hopes he can turn a corner with some everyday playing time because if he doesn't do something, he's on a guaranteed MiLB contract with an invite to somebody's Spring Training. Or maybe he might actually be tradeable for a org 20-30 prospect to the Marlins if the Twins eat his contract. They're going to be eating it anyway.
  6. bean5302
    Who are these 3 playoff caliber starters you're referencing? Joe Ryan (who has collapsed every 2nd half in his career), Simeon Woods Richardson (117 IP last year on pace for 160 IP this year)... and? Lopez = 5.11 ERA Ober = 4.14 ERA Paddack = 5.18 ERA I think the Twins are looking pretty dicey at those playoff caliber starters right now.
  7. bean5302
    I don't see that as a deal making sense for either side. Toronto wants to compete, and Berrios is a long term asset for them. For the Twins, he's a mid rotation guy, he doesn't slot in at the front and he'll be expensive (both prospect and payroll).
  8. bean5302
    He'll be interesting to watch as he moves up since he's so inexperienced, and there's so little info out there on him. I don't take a ton of stock in Fangraphs pitching analysis on its own. It feels like they're obsessed with velocity, but 97mph in rookie ball from a 19 year old unknown is eyebrow raising.
  9. bean5302
    I look at things this way for starting position players: Full year viewpoint < 0.0. You're not part of the problem, you're the WHOLE problem. Please don't be on a big contract. 0.0-0.9 WAR. This is a critical weakness to address. 1.0-1.9 WAR. The team should try hard to upgrade from you next year if they're planning to compete. 2.0-2.9 WAR. You're doing your job okay. Kind of the meat and potatoes of a competitive MLB team. 3.0-3.9 WAR. Borderline All Star 4.0-4.9 WAR. All Star. These guys get you to the playoffs. 5.0+ WAR. Best player on the team. These kind of guys put the team on their backs in the playoffs.
  10. bean5302
    I'll 1,000x down on that. Vazquez's fWAR is -0.1 after 50 games, and MLB owners proposed using fWAR as a basis for player compensation. It's also worth noting multiple players are on record saying WAR is the most important stat for any player in terms of negotiations. It's the defacto "how good is a player?" as evaluated by the people who employ baseball players. Lets go ahead and say it's considered a fairly good estimate of player value. Christian Vazquez, by very definition, is worse than your average AAA call up catcher. That's not MLB caliber. He's not great at blocking. He's not great at controlling the run game. He's very good at framing because he's short He calls a good game (analysis attempts have been unable to prove game calling is even a "thing" and ask Jhoan Duran about Vazquez's amazing game calling. Catchers don't need to call games anymore since they can get a cheat sheet or they get their direction from the pitching coaches/dugout)
  11. bean5302
    He's playing. Rehab assignment started 2 days ago. He's in Ft. Myers in the CPX league. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/emmanuel-rodriguez/sa3014693/game-log?position=OF
  12. bean5302
    You're hoping the White Sox beat more contenders or you hope the Twins beat more contenders? The White Sox took their series' against the Braves, Rays, Cardinals, and Red Sox. I don't think they're probably doing to do a lot better than that. The Twins have won or tied like 10 series' against potential playoff teams this year.
  13. bean5302
    ...and I don't care about the opinions of a pitcher who only cares about his own personal results rather than the team's performance. Vazquez isn't MLB caliber. He's on the team, he's getting paid $10MM, he's going nowhere. He's as good as a random AAA replacement player overall, and the Twins probably aren't going to spend more on the position. But he's good at defense!!! So is every single catcher in MLB. Every last one of them is good defensively. Way better than any beer league softball catcher. The difference between Vazquez and the worst defensive catcher in the the big show is literally 1.0 WAR over 50 games or so. Luis Campusano has the same WAR as Vazquez, ironically (0.0). Because Campusano is a poor hitter at wRC+ 85 but just not as rough as Vazquez. Literally, the absolute most miserable defensive catcher in MLB with a slash line of .230/.277/.364 OPS .640 wRC+ 85 is just as good as Vazquez with his near elite defense.
  14. bean5302
    Yeah, you mean like I spelled out in my earlier post? How about comparing him to the guys drafted after him, which makes more sense. I conveniently laid those out for you as well.
  15. bean5302
    I've been encouraging patience with him given how he had been coming around after an absolutely brutal start to the season, but he's fallen back into the doldrums lately. I guy with an OPS of .560 doesn't need the at bats. His defense is fine, but that bat just doesn't play, and it hasn't shown any steady signs of life recently. He's not going to be able to build up any trade value at this point. Who replaces him? It doesn't matter. "Not Kyle Farmer." That's the point. He doesn't need to take plate appearances away from anybody. Have a 25 man roster and stop playing guys who make it less likely the Twins are going to win games. Yunior Severino? Payton Eeles? Michael Helman? Diego Castillo? Dashawn Keirsey, Jr.? Who cares? Kyle Farmer isn't helping the team win games.
  16. bean5302
    Just basically all the ones which were drafted ahead of him and the next 5 behind him... Jenkins was a #5 overall pick with a $7.1MM signing bonus (what Willi Castro will make next year in his final year of arbitration). That comes with some lofty baseline expectations. He's not some round 20 guy you expect needs a ton of adjustment and polish to perform in the low minors.
  17. bean5302
    He had 50 PA last year. Not enough to determine anything. When guys repeat a level and perform significantly worse in a larger sample size, it's a bad sign. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins is cooked. That'd be lunacy. He's more than holding his own in Low-A, and he has trended upward quite a bit lately. There's still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Especially considering he's only in Low-A where the Twins coaches and staff are going to be working on things with him. The main article is just over the top. Jenkins hasn't produced at a level where the Twins should be jumping for joy they drafted him instead of somebody else. Lot's of anticipation in terms of what he can become, but like I said, reason to adjust the hype meter off 11.
  18. bean5302
    Vazquez isn't MLB caliber, but at least his bat isn't the worst in MLB anymore. There's still some positive regression possibility for him. He could wind up at at 0.5 or maybe even 1.0 WAR with some luck? In any case, he's not a guy a playoff caliber team wants playing much, but there aren't probably a lot better options for essentially "free."
  19. bean5302
    Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all. Expected time to MLB? Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years Elite Prospects, High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year. 2023 = Rookie/A- 2024 = A- / A+ 2025 = A+ / AA 2026 = AAA / MLB That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly. Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me. Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well. *Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. *Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball. College guys available at Jenkins' spot **Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202 **Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 **Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 **Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.
  20. bean5302
    Yeah. Andrew Albers was an ace for his first 2 games in 2013, too. If 2 or 3 game sample sizes were what determined whether or not a pitcher should be considered an ace, MLB would be overflowing with them.
  21. bean5302
    I care about results, man. Not hype, and Pablo Lopez was hyped to the moon after his playoff results, just like 'ol buddy Captain Average, HoF'er Jack Morris. Now, Lopez is way better than Morris. There is only 1 season in Lopez's career where his ERA was lower 3.61, and it was a year where Lopez pitched only 102.2 innings. Lopez's ERAs have always trailed his FIPs, just like other 'ol buddy, Ricky Nolasco. When you see a major split between ERA and FIP for several years/career, it's not luck. It's a pattern. Side note, a 1.19 WHIP is mediocre. Lopez's WHIP (#41 of 73 qualified starters) is bracketed by household pitching studs like Matt Waldron 3.61 ERA/3.66 FIP and Brandon Pfaadt 4.19 ERA/3.78 FIP. Two Cy Young favorites for next year for sure.
  22. bean5302
    Well, if you can hit it where they ain't, grounders are good, haha. I've heard very good baseball players talking about how the game has changed over the past decade or two in terms of that approach. Back in the day, you could time things up on a 80mph changeup or a 85-90mph fastball. Today, so many pitchers are throwing their fastballs at 95mph or even 100mph there's just not a lot of leeway in between "just make some contact" and "try to hit it somewhere in particular" In Correa's case, it's astonishing how many of the pitches he's seeing are "down and away" Those pitches are extremely hard to lift up into line drives and hard fly balls. It sounds like Correa is trying to find a way to force pitchers to play fair and give him something in the zone. As the Twins lineup gets more and more dangerous, it'll be harder to cheat Correa as well. It's quite a testament to Correa's skills that he's able to find an approach which works. Opposing teams will have to make some decisions. 1. Throw strikes and hope Correa doesn't mash them. 2. Shift fielders to the middle and hope Correa doesn't adjust to pull the ball down the line. 3. Get killed by grounders up the middle.
  23. bean5302
    Dude looks like Rocco. Pass. LOL
  24. bean5302
    The only thing you read in that entire quote was "short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited"
  25. bean5302
    If Correa's philosophy is to hit grounders, I don't think he's going to be successful long term as teams will just adapt their fielding positioning to try and take those hits away. Surprising to see his line drive rate at a terrible 10% since June. I guess he's getting it done and his xBA and xwOBA seem to both look good overall. Him putting the ball on the ground last year was the reason so many people felt it was a career low season. Seems risky to me.
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