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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I noted this yesterday, but WPA cares about how much of a difference the performance of a player made to the outcome of the game. Ober pitched well, but he could have pitched terrible and still won the game. His WPA was low because he gave up a run in the first inning (9.00 ERA) after the Twins took a 1-0 lead at the top of the inning. This means Ober's pitching made the Twins much less likely to win the game. After that, the Twins destroyed the Athletics pitchers and spotted Ober a 6 run lead, and the Twins packed on more from there. So Ober could have pitched pretty terrible the rest of the game and it wouldn't have impacted the outcome of the game. Thus, low WPA. Today, Pablo Lopez put up zeroes in a close game, and those zeroes were important for the Twins to win. Thus, Lopez's pitching had a much greater impact on whether or not the Twins won. High WPA.
  2. bean5302
    I wouldn't say you're critical of the organization so much as you're on a path of doom and gloom, pessimism, and anger. The ownership is not going to change, and the Twins are never going to spend like the Yankees. It's pretty clear you're unhappy, and I'd even say you come across as miserable. Like I said, and I wasn't joking, you should go be a Yankees fan or a Dodgers fan or something. Find a team where the owners are willing to spend nearly unlimited money since that seems important to your perception of competitiveness of a team. Baseball is a game. Following a team is a hobby. Your hobbies shouldn't make you miserable.
  3. bean5302
    Seattle is my favorite. I think Nike killed it there because it doesn't look like a college or MiLB team jersey, but that probably means Nike isn't as happy with the design since it seems like that's what they're looking for. The Colorado design is kinda cool (it's directly lifted from their licenese plates), but I dislike the hat. I also like the Angels, and I'd be all in on Atlanta without the "The" next to A. Just conjures up "the" Ohio State pretentiousness. MLB uniforms are for the absolute elite teams/players in the world. They should have class.
  4. bean5302
    He's 2 months away from age 23 in A+ ball so you'd have to think the Twins are looking to promote him after the all star break the way he's hitting. That said, he's miserable at controlling the run game. Not sure if that's fixable at this point. Arm and pop time are the big factors at play, and the results don't suggest progress or projectability here. It looks like the Twins are trying to keep his bat in the lineup by giving him about 1/3 of his playing days as a LF/DH.
  5. bean5302
    Sabato's plate approach has changed. He had an interview years ago where he talked about his plate approach basically consisting of waiting for mistake pitches to crush. It's a great theory, but as he moved up the line, the mistakes just weren't there anymore. He needed to adapt his approach to be more aggressive at the plate, and he has. Sabato's reduction in strike outs (18%) comes with an even larger reduction in walks (35%) vs. 2023. Instead of having a nice projectable walk rate and poor projection on the K rate, both numbers are now borderline-ish projectable. Still, Sabato's batting average crept up from the abyss so his mediocre OBP didn't regress, but like the hitch in BB:K rates, his power hitter profile completely vanished to start the year, managing a pretty pitiful .099 ISO through May despite this being his 3rd season go-'round in AA. Now as the calendar page has flipped to June, his power stroke has returned (.344 ISO), and his K rate has stayed about the same. It's a very small sample size for a player who has struggled at AA for years now. Hopefully, he's figured something out, but even in June, his production is borderline for projecting as a DH caliber bat at the MLB level. Considering Sabato is graded as a terrible fielder, and his numbers certainly don't look like they've gotten better in that regard, he's probably a right handed batting DH candidate so his bat is the only thing which can save him. I'd expect Sabato to be left off the roster yet again this year unless he does something truly remarkable. He was rule 5 eligible last year as well as I recall. These types of players who have a burst of production out of nowhere are usually viewed as long shots and ignored by other teams like Anthony Prato was last year.
  6. bean5302
    I don't know about that. We've seen Jax as a starter, and it wasn't pretty. A major reason Jax's stuff plays up in the bullpen is the extra velocity he can reach back to find. As a starter, Jax had a 92.8mph fastball. Fastball Velo, Slider Velo, Cutter Velo, Curve Velo, Change Velo 2021 SP = 92.8, 83.3, N/A, 79.9, 86.7 2022 RP = 95.4, 86.4, N/A, 82.6, 89.8 2023 RP = 96.5, 86.7, 96.5, N/A, 91.1 2024 RP = 97.0, 89.2, 96.6, 87.0, 92.3 Stuff+ Rating Fastball, Slider, Cutter, Curve, Change 2021 SP = 82, 135, N/A, 89, 70 2022 RP = 98, 155, N/A, 127, 76 2023 RP = 110, 151, 101, N/A, 96 2024 RP = 121, 168, 95, 153, 98 Jax in the rotation sees his pitch velocity drop by probably 3-4mph. His "stuff" may not even be effective anymore. It all starts with the fastball. Drop 3-4mph off his fastball, and it will almost certainly drop to well below average. His slider will drop off a lot, too. His cutter will be ineffective, and his changeup will go back to sucking. The curveball might hang in there.
  7. bean5302
    Oh, also @Ted Schwerzler since I didn't see this obligatory post with: I thought I'd put that in for you so it didn't feel like something was missing from the comments section, but you just couldn't figure out what it was, LOL!
  8. bean5302
    Actually, they do sometimes. Flame throwing pitchers with great movement often have relatively high walk rates, but even seemingly borderline sky high walk rates don't matter if hitter can't touch your stuff. It's how Nolan Ryan made the HoF as a starter. Led MLB in walks 7 times and has issued the most walks in MLB history by nearly 1,000. 2,795 walks issued, #2 is Steve Carlton 1,833 in similar innings pitched. Career BB/9 for Ryan? 4.7. Ryan never threw strikes. He never tried to throw stuff guys could hit. He was like Francisco Liriano, but healthy for a gajillion years. Strike out a ton of guys, don't give up hits, and the BB rate can creep into the 4s while a pitcher, especially a reliever, can be dominant. Aroldis Chapman in his prime was up around 4 BB/9 regularly. 8 (27%) of the top 30 relievers in ERA this year have 4.00+ BB/9 4 (13%) of the top 31 relievers in FIP this year have a 4.00+ BB/9 3 (10%) of the top 30 relievers in xFIP this year have a 4.00+ BB/9 4 (13%) of the top 31 relievers in fWAR this year have a 4.00+ BB/9 Alcala doesn't just have this year's results on record, either. He was utterly dominant to end 2021 as well, and I think we're all seeing why Falvey and Co. kept tendering Alcala contracts even though he was in arbitration years and producing no value on the field due to injuries.
  9. bean5302
    Yeah, I actually can. The Pohlads cut payroll this year. No idea what's in the future for TV contracts, etc. If the payroll bounces back to $150MM, things change again. The $10MM this year just shows Gray's flexibility on how the salary got to him. The guy wanted to play for a competitive team, and Gray is on record saying the Twins checked all the boxes for him on an extension. Front load more of it and don't bring in Santana or resign Farmer. Tada! It's easy.
  10. bean5302
    I see you conveniently left out the Brewers, Mariners, Red Sox and Royals who are all over .500, legit playoff caliber teams, and the Twins are 10-4 against them. As with any cherry picking, it does give you a perspective. Miss the forest for the trees. The Twins have been a very up and down team, but the 17-2 (.895) record against any group of teams in MLB is pretty good. The worst team in that group (White Sox) have won 21 games. They're beating somebody... What I take away from the Twins' record is this. They're destroying bad teams, beating good teams and struggling against great teams.
  11. bean5302
    A team will have a place for Arraez as long as his OBP is .340+ as he'll have an above league average bat, guaranteed. Willi Castro .333 xwOBA Luis Arraez .333 xwOBA
  12. bean5302
    Dude, stop following the team. You'll be happier as a Yankees fan.
  13. bean5302
    Maintained 5 WAR? April 30th - 0.6 fWAR -> Projects to 3.3 fWAR season May 31st - 1.6 fWAR -> Projects to 3.9 fWAR season June 21st - 2.6 fWAR -> Projects to 5.5 fWAR season Castro ranks #37 in MLB in wOBA, but much lower at #62 in xwOBA. It's tough to say how the season will play out, but I think a 3.5 WAR, maybe even 4.0 WAR campaign from Castro is likely this year. His arbitration 3 salary will likely be $6MM. The supposition in the article is maybe the Twins should extend Willi Castro. What does an extension for Castro look like if he finishes the season at 4 WAR? He'll be headed into his age 28 season with free agency hitting at age 29. The Twins would be asking Castro to skip free agency. I think the Twins could persuade Castro to sign a new contract extension replacing his arbitration 3 2025 year at 7 years and $140MM or so. 2025 a28 = $8MM 2026 a29 = $24MM 2027 a30 = $24MM 2028 a31 = $22MM 2029 a32 = $22MM 2030 a33 = $20MM 2031 a34 = $20MM Assuming Castro goes 3 WAR this year, things look awfully different. Maybe a 4 year $80MM deal would be on the table to push back free agency. 2025-2028. If the Twins keep Castro at $6MM in arbitration for 2025 and he duplicates the 3 WAR performance, he's in for a payday as a free agent of maybe 4-5yrs $78-90MM. If Castro plays through this season at a 5 WAR pace, the Twins are going to need to pony up 7+ years at $210MM or so to have him push back free agency. Duplicating a 5 WAR performance would have Castro lined up for a Carlos Correa like payday. 7-10 years at $225-300MM, I'd guess. Castro's trade value increases with his production as well. If he's playing at a 5 WAR level, the haul he'd bring back would be massive.
  14. bean5302
    The Twins are higher in spending rank than Twins fans are in attendance rank. The evil Pohlads spent a great portion of team revenues last year than average. If the team has the revenues, the Pohlads have spent the money the last several years. The way fans on here lose their minds over only having the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central (it will be the highest at the end of the year) is crazy to me. The Pohlads aren't the greatest owners in the league, but I'd happily have them running the team instead of swapping with about 10 other teams' ownership groups. Orioles, Pirates, Athletics, Nationals, Guardians, Reds, Marlins, Rockies, White Sox, and Angels are all solidly under worse ownership. The Twins will likely fall a couple spots on this list this year to about league average if they don't add salary at the trade deadline, but it's hard to tell how revenues will shake out.
  15. bean5302
    It's so satisfying to see a complete game in the box score. Heck of a game by Ober! For those pointing to WPA, it's about how a player influences the likelihood of a game being won or lost. The Twins jumped out to a huge lead so no matter how well Ober pitched, it was unlikely to win or lose the game. Ober could have given up 9 runs on the Twins still would have won. Thus, low WPA because the great performance wasn't necessary to win.
  16. bean5302
    Radke was a borderline Hall of Famer at the end of his career considering his career was cut way short by injury (retired after playing his age 33 season with a broken shoulder, and he was still better than average). He has the 6th most career WAR while wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform of any player. Carew = 63.8 (HoF), Killebrew 60.4 (HoF), Mauer 55.2 (HoF), Puckett 51.1 (HoF), Blyleven (HoF), Radke 45.6, Oliva 43.0 (HoF) Radke is undoubtedly the most underappreciated player in Twins history, and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for his exceptional value on the field, but to go a step further, he also played a critical role in saving the Minnesota Twins from contraction. Ober's a fine #4 guy, but Radke was the best starting pitcher to wear a Twins uniform in the past 30 years not named Johan Santana. Radke was a true ace with 6 seasons over 4.3 WAR, and 3 at 5.8 or higher.
  17. bean5302
    I'm not defending Wallner. Stats are.
  18. bean5302
    The Win-Loss column only is too short sighted. The value Royce Lewis can bring to the Twins on a national popularity level is real. Popularity sells tickets. Selling tickets increases revenue. Higher revenue increases player salary. Higher salary can increase future competitiveness of the franchise.
  19. bean5302
    Add Jordan Montgomery to the list... even though the Diamondbacks are still at 38% to make the playoffs. Last 3 starts for Monty 2.70 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.04 xFIP. Not super excited about Scherzer. He's going to have to "prove it" on the field that he's healthy, especially considering him being a39 and having not pitched a single inning this year, and his injuries which threatened to keep him out of the playoffs last year as well.
  20. bean5302
    Carlos Santana had 0.4 fWAR coming into June, good for probably about 10th in the league. Behind Mountcastle, Naylor, Guerrero, Jr., Perez, etc so I suppose with a snapshot in time, Santana is the highest WAR atm, but that's subject to change quickly. Royce Lewis is one of the greatest player assets for the game today. There is no player I've seen in recent history who is more charismatic than Lewis, and what he's doing on the field... please stay healthy, is insane.
  21. bean5302
    He blew a save. Game was in Oakland so they didn't have to bat in the 9th. Officially recorded in the box score. Duran's issue is his 4 seam fastball hasn't been as valuable; however, that could just be a function of the Twins not calling for it. 50% (2022), 45% (2023), 38% (2024). Stuff+ grades Duran's fastball as good as ever. Maybe... just maaayyyybee, the Twins spreadsheets should allow Duran to throw it more.
  22. bean5302
    So about whipping boys/scapegoats Farmer and Margot. There's an easy way to visualize how they've been expected to perform at the plate over a rolling stretch of games. It takes into consideration how hard and far they've been hitting balls, how often they've struck out or taken walks. The rolling xwOBA on BaseballSavant.com, including all the good at bats you missed, and all the terrible at bats you remember. You can clearly see Margot and Farmer have trended upwards recently over a rolling 100 plate appearances. I've added names and date ranges so people can visualize how the rolling xwOBA works. If you were to pick a dot directly above the date ranges, that's what the dot (point) on the line would represent. Farmer struggled to end last year, and his struggles continued into this year, but you can also see how sporadic his plate appearances have been this year. Both Farmer and Margot are holding their own right now. There's no good reason to ditch them at the moment. For the record, I despised, and still despise both moves in keeping Farmer, and bringing in Margot. Have to hope for 1 of 2 things. 1) They both tank over the next few weeks (worse outcome) while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs so Margot and Farmer can be DFA'd and replaced. 2) The both keep hitting better so their season values creep up over league average (best outcome) and they can be moved while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs. This outcome is better since the Twins win more games. .
  23. bean5302
    Just typing something out doesn't make it true.
  24. bean5302
    Yeah, I wouldn't mind his 2.95 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.76 xFIP right now. But he cost $10MM this year!!!! Falvey needed that money for Margot and Farmer. At least Santana is holding his own at this point... not that Miranda wouldn't still be better.
  25. bean5302
    The negativity around Wallner is getting comical... Wallner last 5 games 57.1% K rate... lazy Wallner, he's broken again Wallner 5 games prior 8.3% K rate... ZOMG, Wallner is Luiz Arraez with power who takes walks! Wallner last 10 games 31.1% K rate. Expand your sample size...
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