bean5302

No idea with this one. How is Mike Ford better than Yunior Severino? I just don't understand the appeal of this one at all, even on a MiLB contract. After Ford was cut by the Reds in May of last year he had to settle for a contract with the Yokohama Bay Stars, and he couldn't even stay on their top level club. First, Ford spent most of his season in the Eastern League (which is basically MiLB for Japan). In Japanese MiLB play, Ford started off at the top level Bay Stars in the Central League where he put together a short and dreadful .200/.273/.350 OPS .623 performance. After that, he was demoted to the Eastern League where he was still very weak (ranked 9th on the team for players with 100+ PA) with a .211/.281/.429 OPS .709 output. Why was this signing made? Even as MiLB depth, there have to be better options out there.

I can't say if Baldelli is a lame duck manager. If a new owner buys the team, probably. If the Pohlads don't complete a sale, Baldelli is probably back.

This reads like hubris for a team which missed the playoffs by a few games. If Baldelli's often perplexing decisions couldn't have possibly cost the Twins the playoffs, then the Twins should trade him to another team who wants him for cost savings because he adds zero value. In fact, why even employ a traditional baseball manager? Just have an entry level data analyst at $50k a year making calls based on a printed spreadsheet. I don't see the advantage in late season collapses to teach players something when they happen every other year so somebody needs to clue me in on that. The Twins were in 1st place on Sept 4th in 2022 only to fail to make the playoffs. The Twins were in WC#2 with a 95% chance of making the playoffs on Sept 4th in 2024 only to fail again. If it was so valuable to have a last minute collapse to the season, wouldn't 2022 have taught the Twins something?

Sure, it's as easy as the Twins pushing to a $150MM payroll. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins do that, but I just don't see it happening. Falvey still hasn't moved ill-advised expenditure pieces like Paddack or Vazquez. That's low hanging fruit in terms of adding a bat which could help the team, but given Falvey's failures the past few years at moving assets he was expected to part with, this isn't surprising.

I'm not surprised. I was responding to the comment by @JD-TWINS who was expecting positive regression due to Castro's drop off from 2.7 WAR in 2023 to 1.6 WAR he was apparently attributing to an OPS change.

It's a 1 year MLB deal, but I haven't seen the reports on the details yet. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/cubs-sign-caleb-thielbar.html

There might be something to the skill or the metric in general. Catcher physical dimensions matter a lot. Taller catchers generally find it easier to get high strikes called and shorter catchers generally find it easier to get low strikes called when I was evaluating trends in the metric. Even if it's just body type resulting in more or less favorable strike calls, it's still valuable, but then there is the pitcher staff and umpire biases towards pitcher reputation. Great pitchers get better calls. Just like great hitters often get better calls. The biggest problem I have with catcher framing is it is not stable at all, and the values assigned have enormous impact. Most catchers bounce around in terms of value. J.T. Realmuto is an example: -11, +3, +5, +7, +3, +4, 0, -13, -3. So he started off horrible, then became one of the best, then became horrible, then became below average. Christian Vazquez has a similar pattern: +4, +3, +3, +12, +3, +0, +2, +3, +6. Where did that +12 come from? That's +1.2 WAR. Vazquez's +6 from last year was out of whack, too, considering his playing time. Brian McCann's career is all over the place as well. It's common to see framing value make wild changes when a catcher changes teams. Like Kurt Suzuki. He apparently forgot everything he knew about framing the moment he left Minnesota. It makes me suspect the pitchers have a much more substantial impact than the catcher. Jason Castro. Similar story. Terrible, then great when Houston decided he should be good at it, then he tanked back down with Minnesota... Look at Buster Posey. Fangraphs' WAR = 57.6. Posey enjoyed a +31 Statcast framing runs in 2016 (first year); that's 3.1 WAR just in framing. Looking at the other framing runs source, Posey enjoyed +13 WAR in framing over his career. That's why Posey is 45 bWAR and 58 fWAR. So framing isn't stable and it has an enormous impact on perceived value, but I don't believe the catcher's skill usually has much to do with it.

How about fans just do what they want rather than align themselves with some sort of cause? The Twins are rolling a payroll which currently ranks 16th in MLB, and Spotrac has them projected at $138MM right now. Most people expect the Twins will cut that down to $130MM. If people aren't happy if the Twins aren't top 10 in payroll, I suggest becoming fans of other teams because the Twins aren't going to hang out up in that $200MM+ arena; new owners or not. MSP cannot reasonably support that level of expenditure. Or you could go root for teams who are actually cheap so the complaining about payroll actually holds water... 2024 $62MM Athletics $84MM Pirates $89MM Rays $96MM Marlins $96MM Tigers 2023 $62MM Athletics $68MM Orioles $74MM Pirates $74MM Rays $89MM Guardians $93MM Nationals $95MM Reds $95MM Royals The Twins haven't run a payroll under $97MM in the last 10 years. I canceled my seasons because of the value proposition and the bait-n-switch I felt at the end of 2023, but I see no merit in your proposal.

Castro had a nearly identical bat in 2024 as he had in 2023. Castro put together 2.5 fWAR in 2023 and 3.1 fWAR in 2024. bWAR is broken for most positions IMHO.

For the folks wanting to hand the backup catcher job to Mickey Gasper... that's a big leap. Gasper has been able to catch about 15%-20% of base runners at AA/AAA so maybe 10-15% at the MLB level? He's struggled with that skill, and Gasper has allowed quite a few passed balls. Jeffers' MiLB career was 13 passed balls in 1050 innings, while Gasper has allowed 18 passed balls in 920 innings. The Yankees deployed Gasper as a utility player with the ability to catch, and the moment a catching prospect was promoted to Gasper's level, Gasper gave up his catcher duties to the prospect. Gasper's also been very passive at the plate, swinging at less than 60% of strikes at AAA (only 33% of strikes at the MLB level in SSSS). That won't fly at the MLB level. Gasper needs some consistent playing time at catcher before I'd really want to rely on him, and the Twins have essentially nothing in the minors in case of emergency.

Fangraphs uses the unstable pitch framing metric which creates wild swings in catcher value. If we average things between bWAR and fWAR... Vazquez +0.3 avg WAR in 98 games per year McCann +0.5 avg WAR in 63 games per year McCann is the better player by a fair margin. Of course, I'd rather use bWAR for catchers because I dislike "catcher framing" as I don't think it's a valid metric.

I don't know as it's surprising Burnes got that huge contract given his history, but I sure wouldn't have been interested in giving Burnes that kind of contract. From fastball velo, to contact rates, K rates, and some other batted ball metrics, there are reasons to be concerned about how Burnes is going to age now that he's entering his age 30 season. The contract does include $60MM in deferrals so that helps a ton in terms of annual cost. Obviously, pretty much everybody is stunned it was the Diamondbacks who made the deal, but it seems like Burnes really valued living where he has his home. Life balance made it all work out. Zac Gallen's status has to be much more available now given Arizona's payroll expectations, but the proposal I made to trade Lopez for Gallen is likely more difficult because of the Diamondbacks being less likely to be open to adding payroll, and AZ now having their ace under contract long term. I suppose Burnes could opt out after 2025, but that seems like he'd have to excel pretty hard in the desert to pull off an obvious bonus in value.

Joe Ryan is a bargain. Bailey Ober is a bargain. David Festa is a bargain. Simeon Woods Richardson is a bargain. If Pablo Lopez wasn't a bargain compared to free agent deals, the front office would have quite a bit of egg on their face. Lopez was extended while he was still under team control for 2 years, and he had never had a big payday because he was signed as an international free agent with a $280k bonus way, way back in 2012. The Twins had a huge amount of leverage in negotiations.

Possibly. The Pohlad family owns a lot of commercial property, and commercial property got an absolute thrashing in terms of value post-COVID. The family has been working to diversify their holdings, but it's not like these big commercial properties are liquid right now. Selling the Twins would give them lots of liquidity they need to be flexible in growing business value. https://tcbmag.com/tcbs-2022-people-of-the-year/

I'm not concerned about any of these guys. Buxton will probably play 80 games and that's baked into my expectations of him. Correa and Wallner's actual production would obviously take a hit based on any unexpected injury, but I'd expect 135 G from Correa and 550 PA+ with Wallner at 145 G and 550 PA+ losing a lot of PA due to Baldelli's platoon tendencies. My expectations for Buxton 2.5-3.0 fWAR. My expectations for Correa 4.0-5.0 fWAR. My expectations for Wallner 3.0-4.0 fWAR. If they fall well short of that, it'll be disappointing, but it's not like I have any of them in MVP candidate-land.

Gasper is a very interesting player. I did a quick breakout of him in a different thread. He's always hit well, but he's suffered from lack of expectations. Top round draft picks get the best of everything and faith from their organizations. 28th round college seniors? Not so much. At the level Gasper played the most in each season 2018 - a22 R - .259/.395/.496 OPS .892 wRC+ 135 2019 - a23 A - .233/.347/.375 OPS .722 wRC+ 115 2020 - a24 Lost Season 2021 - a25 AA - 40 PA .343/.400/.600 OPS 1.000 wRC+ 165. Gasper lost most of his season due to a thumb injury. Horrible timing. He was now basically considered MiLB roster filler based on how he was handled, which also makes sense based on age. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 2022 - a26 AA - 270 PA .266/.407/.453 OPS .861 wRC+ 141 2023 - a27 AA - 188 PA .269/.388/.423 OPS .811 wRC+ 129 2024 - a28 AAA - 204 PA .367/.471/.592 OPS .1.062 wRC+ 179 Gasper feels like a type (overlooked, low expectations despite always performing well) which could provide some value. There is some possibility other teams just assumed he performed well because he was older and experienced, but Gasper's promotions were pretty speedy in terms of games played at each level things considered. That said, Gasper is very passive at the plate, and that's been consistent with his results in AAA. Swinging at less than 60% of pitches in the zone doesn't work at the MLB level. Waiting for that meatball mistake pitch means you go 0/4 with 3Ks. Gasper has played 10 games in his total career at 2B, including MiLB. Not sure why Boston decided he could cover the position, but whatever. He never even played 2B at college? Anyway Gasper was a catcher in college, but he played a handful of summer league games at 1B and NYY decided to deploy him as 1B/C. He's been very poor at controlling the run game. The Yankees viewed him as a 1B prospect, not a catcher when they drafted him. https://www.thegreedypinstripes.com/2018/06/meet-prospect-mickey-gasper.html Now, as to whether or not Gasper has a chance at the opening day roster? Sure. If he impresses in Spring Training with the Twins giving him a lot of PA (he's been to ST in 2023 - 12PA, and 2024 - 4PA), I could see Gasper on the opening day roster. This is especially the case if the Twins can find a way to improve his catcher skills.

Willi Castro fits the needs of 29 teams. He'd have a roster spot anywhere, honestly, but how much surplus value he has elsewhere vs. how much he has to the Twins is another question. The fact Castro is still a member of the Twins confuses me a little as Minnesota is probably about $140MM in payroll at the moment, not that you'd know it from the doom and gloom comments around here lately, LOL. BTV has Castro's value down from the EoY, now at +8.9 where it was at +15.1 at the end of the season (BTV evaluates player value based on market conditions and projection models). I'm not sure why BTV's projection has soured on him so much, but they have his projected production at 15.0 right now, which is less than 2 WAR next year where it was closer to 3 WAR as I recall. Anyway, a lot will depend on how a team values Castro's defense. I'd say Castro will be viewed as a 2-3 WAR player, depending on the team evaluating him, but that is a huge swing in value. A 3 WAR player actively helps carry your team to the playoffs whereas a 2 WAR player just doesn't hurt your team trying to make the playoffs. Essentially, that's the difference between +9MM value and +15MM value. In regard to what that means in the real world... for a guy like Castro, probably 1 extra mid level prospect. No team is likely to trade a top 5 org prospect for 1 year of Castro as top prospects are highly coveted (overvalued). Teams are more willing to package a couple org #10-15 guys, and maybe a depth guy with some upside. Falvey always seems a day late and a dollar short to trade parties, though. Waiting out the market looking for the clearance deal of a century.

Almost nobody in baseball is slower than Brooks Lee. Correa wins easily.

Torkelson was a .219/.295/.374 OPS .669 wRC+ 92 hitter last year. Torkelson does bring quite a bit of power to his game, but he'll need to adjust his game to start swinging at more offerings and not just waiting for meatballs. It's not like Torkelson has no value. He's still pre-arb, he has an option, and he'll be 26 next year. Projection models expect him to be an above average hitter overall. There will be teams interested in Torkelson, who bashed 31 home runs in 2023, and there is still potential there to have a Larnach-like change in approach and results. Torkelson took a cut at only 23% of pitches outside the zone last year (lowest 15%), and offered at a below average 65% of pitches in the zone. Contact rates in the zone were good. Kind of similar to how Larnach was so unlikely to swing. A "flyer" is generally used for guys who've been DFA'd and are on waivers. That's not going to happen to Torkelson, and he won't be had by the Twins for less than a top 10 prospect. He'd cost a guy like Marco Raya or better. Baseballtradevalues has Torkelson at +8.4 in value right now, and the Tigers aren't going to sell cheap to the Twins.

To be fair, Jorge Lopez was pretty good with Baltimore for before being traded to the Twins in 2022, but I'd probably take Manea. Actually, Jorge Lopez wasn't terrible last year, either. 2.89 ERA? (3.94 FIP), and he was downright good with the Cubs after the Mets traded him (2.03 ERA, 3.20 FIP). I honestly did not see that coming. Also. :p

I haven't seen anything about Wallner changing his swing in AAA. He was tinkering with the swing before the season started to cover the plate better. The quotes I've seen from Wallner in regard to his struggles during the season had to do with his approach at the plate and pressing. Wallner made those adjustments himself. Not getting selected in Rule 5 absolutely means the league doesn't think a player can translate. No team would turn away a free MLB caliber player, even if they didn't have the roster space, they'd simply make the space by trading another player. Nine teams got below average production at the plate from their 1B last year. 12 teams got below average production from their DH position last year. There are 3 positions a guy like Seymour could fill. Bench bat, 1B/DH. Multiply that by 29 teams and that's 87 potential openings he was passed over. There are plenty of huge power guys who MLB teams didn't believe in. Adam Brett Walker III, Daniel Palka types. https://community.ottoneu.com/t/the-legend-of-bob-seymour-a-stats-somewhat-deep-dive/14762 If Seymour had a sub-30% K rate or was a year or two younger, he'd have absolutely been claimed (not to mention he'd been on Tampa Bay's 26 man roster). I do think he might have some potential, and so do a lot of other teams, I'd think. But he's far from a sure bet, and that's why teams passed him over.

Generally, the faster a ball travels off a bat, the more likely it is to turn into a hit or especially a home run. Higher exit velocities usually translates to better production. In the case of 110+mph balls off the bat, they rarely turn into outs because the ball has to be hit directly at somebody. The batter cannot control exactly where the ball goes. Top Average EV in MLB Last Year 1. Aaron Judge, OPS 1.159 wRC+218 2. Shohei Ohtani, OPS 1.036, wRC+ 181 3. Oneil Cruz, OPS .773, wRC+ 110 4. Juan Soto, OPS .989, wRC+ 180 5. Ketel Marte, OPS .932, wRC+ 151 6. Vlad Guerrero Jr. OPS .940, wRC+ 165 7. Kyle Schwarber OPS .851, wRC+ 135 8. Matt Champman, OPS .790, wRC+ 121 9. Rafael Devers, OPS .871, wRC+ 134 10. Yordan Alvarez, OPS .959, wRC+ 168 The obvious outlier there is Oneil Cruz with his propensity to hit tons of ground balls, but every single hitter in the rest of the list put up All Star to MVP caliber hitting numbers. In any case, I think you're missing the point of the article. The point is honestly that Matt Wallner has superstar pieces to his game, and the potential to be one of the most valuable players in baseball.

Pretty dramatic again. It's been directly communicated the Twins do not expect to cut payroll. So $130MM is the expected target, but they may actually be expanding payroll. We're just about into January and the Twins are running a $140MM payroll at the moment. There has been some clarification on a couple players. Correa - Not one single team has come calling for Correa. Zero. No conversations. Period. The Twins would need a potential trade partner to start exploring this hypothetical scenario to begin with. There is only one team I can think of, and that's the Nationals. Lopez - The Twins are actively listening to offers for Pablo Lopez, but have not indicated a willingness to move him. The Pohlads have not yet sold the team, and it takes months and months for any such transaction to actually finalize. Any major moves which would seriously hurt the team's competitiveness and those moves would potentially hurt revenue and profit for the current ownership while also being counter to the statements the front office has made about keeping payroll the same. The Pohlad family has not typically done the opposite of what they say they're going to do.

Don't think it would be a problem to get Seymour, but it doesn't seem like the league believes he can make enough contact to be a viable MLB hitter. He was Rule 5 eligible this year and no team grabbed him. https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/rule-5-draft-preview-which-prospects-will-be-selected/

Options are based on the 40 man roster, not the 26 man roster. If a player is on the 40 man roster and they're assigned to the minors for more than 20 days, they burn an option. It's possible for a player to run out of options without stepping onto an MLB field once in their career. Emmanuel Rodriguez, for instance, burned an option last year. He only has 2 remaining. Moran wasn't on the Twins' 40 man roster so he was eligible for the MLB Rule 5 draft. Since he was on a MiLB contract with the Twins, he transferred to Boston as a MiLB contract without needing to be added to the Red Sox's 40 man roster. That means Moran will be making like $50k in AAA. Moran has 1 option remaining, and unless he's added to the 40 man roster by the Red Sox, the option will not be burned. Gasper was on Boston's 40 man so he's been transferred to the Twins' 40 man, but that only entitles him to like $85k a year in AAA. Gasper was added to the 40 man roster for the first time in his career on 8/12. At that point, he had 3 options. He still has 3 options remaining because the Red Sox only optioned Gasper to AAA for 14 days (9/7-9/21) after he was added to the 40 man and 20 days is the minimum to burn an option. I'd consider him highest on the depth chart behind Jeffers and Vazquez at this point, but the fact his bat has played so well means there might be the potential he could fill other gaps on the roster. Both players will make league minimum if they're called up. 2018 draft pick Chris Williams officially parted ways with the Twins' organization by signing a MiLB deal with the Mets on 12/20. I don't think it's a coincidence the Twins made a move to acquire MiLB catching depth. I don't think this move had much to do with Vazquez.