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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Not a thorough or convincing use of the data regarding Larnach, IMO. Batter BABiP does not regress to league averages as do pitchers. They don’t even regress to the player’s average…when that player is making massive adjustments. Like Larnach. Larnach is swinging earlier in the count than he ever has. And seeming also to be willing to give in more often and try to ‘just’ put the ball in play with two strikes. Undoubtedly, to bring down the massive K rate. Regarding the K rate, it’s a monumental success. Overall, it worked for a while…but an inevitable cost is that you’ll offer at a lot of tough pitches. And pitchers adjust. So, his BB% has tanked, and whatever the averages say about EV and LA, the fact is he’s hitting a ton (for him) of balls on the ground. And it’s pretty clear he isn’t squaring stuff up as frequently as he was earlier in the year. And unless he gets significantly better at deploying this approach (certainly possible), I don’t see the HR rate bumping up much, if at all. I would expect the BABiP to improve some…but not necessarily get too close to what it’s been in the past.
  2. jkcarew
    Taking notes…. First, let’s keep everybody. Then, let’s call up every hot hitter and pitcher in AAA (plus Emmy Rodriguez). Finally, trade for difference-making arms at the deadline, without giving up top prospects. Did I miss anything?
  3. jkcarew
    Yep…that meets the eye test as well. He’s been slipping slightly/slowly as the season has progressed.
  4. jkcarew
    It’s an interesting question. But I’m pretty sure Lewis is your third-baseman regardless…if he’s not DH’ing. A matter of limiting the ground he has to cover defensively.
  5. jkcarew
    Nice series win. I would have pinch hit for Vazquez😅. But, good for him!
  6. jkcarew
    The only one (among those with options) I want to see Wallner up for is Larnach. Not that Larnach has been horrible. But, with the way the roster is currently performing, those two are completely redundant. It’s not like the club is starving for another left-handed corner outfielder, nor are they currently starving for offensive production. Meanwhile, Martin is a handy little right-handed, contact-hitting, base-running, walk-taking, defensively-flexible, widget in the toolbox.
  7. jkcarew
    None. Odds are nobody will go 12-12 again in our lifetime. The best hitters in history batted about 420 at their peak. Now…multiply 0.42 by itself 12 times. The result is infinitesimal….not even a fraction of 1/100th of one percent. Last one was 72 years ago. And batting averages are trending down…so. Truly unbelievable.
  8. jkcarew
    That month by Henriquez was the 4th best in the system?? That’s either wildly untrue, or horrifically sad. I’m too lazy to do the research to determine which.
  9. jkcarew
    Think how bad it would be if we didn’t have the Best Bullpen in Baseball!
  10. jkcarew
    It’s a legit miracle we got Correa. Now we gonna ponder whether we could’ve been blesses with a better miracle?
  11. jkcarew
    He’s worth his contract if/when he completes something close to a full season. Simple as that. His offense has always been overrated, mainly because the insanely hot hot streaks are celebrated as ‘real’ and the insanely horrible streaks are dismissed. Overall, over the course of full seasons, he’ll be an average to slightly above average offensive player (tied solely to his HR rate), with extremely high highs and very low lows…and an excellent player at a premium position.
  12. jkcarew
    I’d trade him and take my chances. Nothing against him. And you’re not offering him a QO…so, this is the only chance to get something for him.
  13. jkcarew
    Because, the FO has a GREAT track record of identifying injured pitchers who are on the verge of regaining full effectiveness. No, wait…that’s not it. Because the FO has a GREAT track record of identifying pitchers on the verge of retiring due to injury. Never mind.
  14. jkcarew
    Either the east wing or the west wing of the local hospital. It’s anyone’s guess right now😉
  15. jkcarew
    Hey! Fort Myers got in 6 innings of baseball this weekend! I see the FSL has given in (finally), and will schedule games on a Monday for tomorrow.
  16. jkcarew
    Correa’s been the MVP, and IMO, it’s not that close. Strange to allude to “a hot few weeks” with him…he’s been very good offensively all season. And then there’s the defense at the premium position of SS. Some good stories with Castro and Miranda especially. I put both Lewis and Buxton in the TBD category. Can either or both play regularly going forward? I want to say over the coarse of a full season, Lewis is your MVP. But, in addition to the health, can he maintain the elite production. And can Buxton…in the event he is able to complete a season…gain some semblance of consistency with the bat? Ryan is a star if he can “simply” keep the ball in the yard at an average rate. Not really that easy given his style of aggressively challenging hitters…which I love.
  17. jkcarew
    And one should be disappearing from top prospect lists.
  18. jkcarew
    Severino's first 39 games: 145/251/303 (555; wRC+ 42); BB%-12.0; K%-35.3 Severino's last 28 games: 424/540/727 (1.267; wRC+ 224); BB%-19.8; K%-20.6 I don't think anyone in the organization has been this hot for this long so far this year. Like any scorching hot streak, the BABiP is unsustainably high (as his BABiP was 'unsustainably' low to start the year.) But look at the BB/K numbers. Has he figured something out? If so, he's going to have value either on the roster, or in a trade.
  19. jkcarew
    As a huge Carew fan, I remember this like it was yesterday. Made the 500-mile round trip to see the following game (planned a week prior). He went 1-3 with a ground ball single and got pulled late with the game lost. I’ve spent the last 47 years of my life wishing we would have planned the trip for one day earlier.
  20. jkcarew
    The theory behind keeping Lee at SS in the minors is that it’s much, much easier to transition from SS to 2B than 2B to SS. SS is much more demanding physically and mentally. If one can handle SS, transition to 2B is ‘easy’. I think it’s a solid theory. And then there’s the fact that I’m sure he will be the one to slide over and rest Correa when they do bring him up. I’m sure he’s getting plenty of practice on the pivot from both sides.
  21. jkcarew
    Love this article. Arraez is very good and his skills are so fun and refreshing in the modern game. He’s not Carew and he’s not Gwynn. those guys were among the league leaders in OPS and wRC year after year with tons of XBH and SB. This year in particular Arraez is overrated on the basis of all-star voting…but the most overrated player in the game? I’d just say, he’s a fan and media favorite…and probably always will be, simply because he’s so refreshingly different in a league that is becoming more and more homoginized in terms of how players look, swing, and play.
  22. jkcarew
    Exactly what couldn’t happen.
  23. jkcarew
    Better get an early lead, if they go.
  24. jkcarew
    Looking less and less likely that this will be played. As mentioned, need to think about moving games up this week. Looks like we’re in a pattern of high-humidity days that yield to rain in the late afternoon/evening.
  25. jkcarew
    I mean…the ABS strike zone seems to be significantly smaller (particularly, more narrow) than the MLB strike zone GENERALLY is called. Don’t know really what that will mean. But, if we’re headed there…you’d think the league would first make an effort to reduce the tendency for current umps to give the strike on balls 2 (and more) inches outside the zone. Otherwise, it’s going to be a jarring change if/when full ABS comes.
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