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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Early word is that JRM is primed for a 5-WAR season. In fact, Jerry Narron is counting on it. Unfortunately, Jerry Narron is the manager of the Reno Aces.
  2. jkcarew
    Thanks, Seth. Is that a decision that's been made: both Javier and Lewis start at Cedar Rapids? If so, that will be very interesting in terms of defensive lineups. The move of Lewis to CF comes quicker than many of us thought? I'm interested to see two of our position prospects come back from missed seasons. Kirilloff and Luis Arraez. Arraez's on-base skills sure are intriguing, as are Kirilloff's overall hitting arsenal.
  3. jkcarew
    Agree with others here that feel he will sufficiently figure the LHP thing out. Everything having to do with his family background and overall story suggest that he will have all the tools required for "figuring things out" in his profession. He'll eventually max his physical gifts, and that's what is the encouraging part for me.
  4. jkcarew
    Interesting. I imagine simple law of averages points to CF rather than SS for Lewis. But, I also think it is 100% reasonable for the Twins to play Lewis every day at SS as long as they can until he proves the theory. Also, another opinion that could be interpreted to suggest that it's less likely that the Twins would try to wedge Gordon into the SS void created by Polanco's suspension...regardless of how good the start at Rochester.
  5. jkcarew
    Regarding minor league MLB-affiliate players, the solution is relatively simple...the solution must come from collective bargaining. While it would be nice (and appropriate) if these minor-leaguers saw a bigger slice of the pie, I don't think it would make a material difference in the life of most players. All leagues except AAA are "up-or-out" propositions. Nevertheless, they should be paid better regardless, and it would make it more viable for the 'career' AAA players. Regarding independent minor leagues, I don't know that there is an answer. I don't think the business model will support much of an increase in costs. Those leagues already have tremendous franchise turnover. The Saints are not at all typical or representative of the vast majority of these independent franchises. (I also don't know the magnitude of the problem regarding independent leagues, as these players may put in significantly less time than do the players playing for MLB affiliates.)
  6. jkcarew
    To me the question regarding whether it was accidental or intentional is irrelevant. It's a super competitive business...we all know of the incentives for pushing the envelope. But irresponsibility is always willful, either in act or omission of act. This need not impact his career drastically long-term. He's 24 years old. 24 year olds have time to atone for bad mistakes (thank God). Nor do I fear greatly that his 2nd-half performance was necessarily artificial. There are a lot of possible variables contributing to improved performance for a 24 year old batter. I'll be pulling for him when he comes back.
  7. jkcarew
    Yeah...but I notice that some think faster. Oh, Well!
  8. jkcarew
    You also are implicitly assuming that defense is constant year over year (i.e., the same number of un-earned runs as last year.) Cool. Thanks for sharing.
  9. jkcarew
    Just noticed Baseball Reference for "most similar batter through age 23"... Larry Hisle. Boy, I'd take that. Buxton would be top-10 MVP many, many years if he develops offensively as did Hisle (and stays healthy). The floor is Paul Blair. For those of you that weren't around for Vietnam or the Civil Rights movement (but can remember exactly where you were when Kanye dissed Taylor at the VMA's )...let's just say that that's a good floor. You can eat off that floor.
  10. jkcarew
    Scrutinizing the spring training games, it sure seemed the Twins were planning on the Rochester SS being Gregorio Petit, with Gordon making the move to 2nd. Petit has played way more games at SS than anywhere else in the minors...and was getting more looks at SS than Gordon was getting in ST. This is a guess. And even if I'm correct, I guess this could change things. It will be hugely interesting to see the first few Rochester lineups.
  11. jkcarew
    The rules are part of the collective bargaining agreement. The union agree to them. So, if we're going to throw around derogatory comments regarding any race or age, you need to sling some mud in the direction of the players that represented the union and signed off on this....or settle for holding the players accountable for following the rules.
  12. jkcarew
    Thanks for the reminder. DFA'd, not yet waived. As many have stated, the left-handed thing is weird. Just stockpiling value...you'd think some will get moved at some point...but I guess no harm/no foul (for now) when he comes will the full compliment of options.
  13. jkcarew
    Thanks. But if something else was up, they could have simply DFA'd Vargas and deferred adding Cave to the 40-man, until they wanted/needed him on the 25-man. Curious. I guess the only thing that's clear at this point is that 30 years from now both Vargas and Gil will be in the Hall of Fame.
  14. jkcarew
    Still not clear on if Cave automatically (or otherwise) is added to the 40-man.
  15. jkcarew
    We love us some left-handed hitting outfielders, do we not!? I like this move more if it comes with a spot cleared on the 40-man. He had been DFA's by the Yankees, so we don't have to add him if we don't want to, do we? Also, he should come with options without any appearances in the majors...one would think. Interesting. Shouldn't Vargas be exposed to waivers at this point, then?
  16. jkcarew
    Agree with others...this is not in the same universe of what Sano and Buxton should be thinking at this point. And I can't see either not betting on themselves unless the extension offer is huge. Really huge. Fun to see a division rival get fleeced in a deal like this, though. Tigers gave Suarez up for Alfredo Simon. Actually, I think they had to throw in another prospect with Suarez. To get Alfredo Simon. Puts a spring in your step, doesn't it?
  17. jkcarew
    The stuff definitely looks good in the 3 (of 8) innings I've seen. The 3 innings I saw were against mostly minor-league players. But let's see him do it at least at the AAA level for a while, before we assume he's going to be immediately better than Gibson. His demonstrated dominance in the minors was at the single-A level. At AA last year, hit/walk rates both took a hit and results were not 'knocking-on-the-door' results. If he's made the sustainable break-through with a pitch, let's see it in at least AAA results before we throw him into MLB games that should matter in terms of a playoff chase.
  18. jkcarew
    Seems like the guys that are close to majors have already turned into high-floor rather than high-ceiling prospects (those that ever were considered high-ceiling). And the high-ceiling guys are quite a ways away. It helps me to remember that these are educated guesses...and that the still-healthy number of Twins prospects that even warrant the prospect conversation, increases the overall likelihood that there will be some over-achievers among the group.
  19. jkcarew
    Rod Carew's BAbip spiked to .359 once....it was a span of about 11 thousand plate appearances across 19 years. And, you're right. He got a lot of MVP votes!
  20. jkcarew
    This. It's one thing to understand the concept of sunk cost...but you're still going to give a huge investment like that every possible opportunity to turn. I'd imagine the Twins plan on pitching him early either as a 5th starter or long-man, with the idea that if (many here would say when) he implodes, they look at DL options to buy even more time. They'll be absolutely positive and out of all stashing options before they let him go. With regard to the early 4-man rotation, a lot of times it's dependent on the weather. There are more (than normal) off days scheduled early...combine that with the possibility of multiple rain/snow/cold postponements...and sometimes it can get ridiculous.
  21. jkcarew
    My gut tells me Joe would be willing to come back with limited role...almost regardless of what his results are this year. A lot of currently unknown variables regarding whether that would make sense for the 2019 roster. It won't be the end of the world if he ends his career elsewhere. There are two statues at Target field of guys that didn't end their career with the Twins.
  22. jkcarew
    You mean feet per second... This is a great example of bias based on what a player looks like. You assume (you are not the only one...not close to the only one) that these times are slow because these guys are so large. 26.9 fps is in the top half of speed for ML third-basemen. In fact, 26.9 is close to the average speed for MLB overall...all positions. (Incidentally, Vargas's time is easily in the top half for first-basemen.) Not that strait-line sprint speed has much to do with playing a quality 1B or 3B. https://www.mlb.com/news/sprint-speed-shows-fastest-at-each-position/c-238290228
  23. jkcarew
    Super nice write-up. Thanks. Concur with Dr. Wu that Hatcher was a fun player. Unorthodox in everything he did including his body language and facial expressions. Cut late in spring training in '87 when Kelly decided to give the left-field job to an acquisition from Giants...Dan Gladden. Needless to say, I didn't end up missing Mickey as much as I thought I would.
  24. jkcarew
    Agreed. That's why it wouldn't shock me that, when contemplating signing Dozier, it would cross the FO minds to consider whether Dozier could be moved to 3rd...assuming they love Gordon and see Mauer with a different role. I have no idea if that's a viable consideration at this point...but the bat plays there (currently anyway), and he's played a ton of professional baseball on the left side, including his first 83 games with the big club. I seem to recall that his move from SS to 2B was based on range, not arm. (I could be wrong.)
  25. jkcarew
    No. He. Can't.
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