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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    You're arguing with someone else. I never said that Rodney's performance in the opener means he shouldn't close any more games, nor that Hildenberger would be better. Only that Rodney should not have a long leash...based on who he is, not based on the opener. Even said that I don't know that he will fail. To be fair, we probably don't have anyone on the roster (sigh) that would warrant a long leash in that role. Fwiw...Save Pct is a fine way of evaluating relievers if you are looking at pitchers used exclusively as closers and across big enough time-frames (more than one year). After all, converting the opportunity is all that matters. The 'type' of save normalizes pretty quickly in the data...especially in an era when almost every save opportunity represents 3 outs. Believe me, if you look at the top of that list over a 2 or 3-season span, all the guys at the top will be the same guys that are at the top if you use any other method....same for the bottom. (Britton, Davis, Jansen, Kimbrel, Melancon, Chapman 1-6 last 3 years) Baseball Ref shows Perkins career save pct at 85%. Meanwhile, Joe Nathan is at 89%. Again, I think this is fairly reflective of how good they were relative to each other. (Acknowledging that Nathan also sustained his performance for a significantly longer time.)
  2. jkcarew
    I don't know. Are you saying that a closer that has had at least 19 guys perform better than him...and is 41 years old besides, should have a long leash?
  3. jkcarew
    No offense...but I don't 'like' this . Among 26 relievers that were asked to close (saves) as many as 55 times in the last three years (using Brandon Kintzler's 55 save opps as the cutoff for reference)... Average Save Pct: 86.7 (Zach Britton 94.2) Rodney Save Pct: 83.3 (19th of 26) Brandon Kintzler: 83.6 I'm not saying this means we have an impending disaster on our hands. It just that, given recent performance for a 41 year-old could be reasonably expected to be a ceiling, I'm not understanding what warrant's a long leash, unless it's the perceived absence of alternatives.
  4. jkcarew
    If an international player (at least Dominican, Venezuelan) has made it to AA, it usually means he's been in the organization 5-7 years. Someday, we will look back at this, and other features, of international signing rules and say "did this really happen?". Btw...Killebrew made 15 opening day line-ups for the franchise. It's just that the team was named the Washington Senators for the first two . His first opening day start for the Senators was in 1959, at the age of 22. He hit a home run. This was already his 6th year on the major league roster due to the 'bonus baby' rules in effect at the time. (Speaking of 'did this really happen?').
  5. jkcarew
    Also not a fan of Rodney in a closer role...not for a team that expects to win a division or wild card. In a game like this, you were going to use him sooner or later, though. Odorizzi encouraging. Addison Reed very encouraging, but overall bullpen doesn't seem poised to be a strength. As a team, the offense should come around.
  6. jkcarew
    One body available to back up 3 positions (3B, SS, 2B). If you were to DH Sano you have zero bodies available...without losing the DH. Rosario in an emergency? Does this seem sustainable? The Granite move makes sense. His bat has zero value on the bench. We’ll see him play plenty if one of the big three goes on the DL.
  7. jkcarew
    Good point. In that spirit, I'll say that while the Twins posses the speed tool, using their speed on offense still represents a big opportunity. Which is a good thing.
  8. jkcarew
    Below is a story from middle of last year using the same data that doesn't have the Twins in the top 3. The delta's in the data are so small, that you get different results based on how you slice it. But that's beside the point. In terms of base running we are good, but not elite, and in terms of defensive range we are elite in only in the outfield. Fwiw, we can assume our infield range will be very average (hopefully) this year. https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-and-marlins-are-mlbs-fastest-teams/c-239557506
  9. jkcarew
    8/8/87: Steve Carlton gets the 329th and final win of his Hall of Fame career as the Twins beat the Athletics 7-2 in Oakland. Matt, this game was at the Metrodome. I was there...(unless I dreamt it) Not that I remember all of these cool details...mainly remember wanting to see Carlton...and Puckett’s performance.
  10. jkcarew
    You lost me at... 2. Speed. Fastest team in baseball baby! This is....really optimistic.
  11. jkcarew
    Either way, it's good to be the Sire!
  12. jkcarew
    I would have liked to seen continued progress with the strike zone this spring. Really didn't see that. Swings at anything close like Rosario, but will never have Rosario's hands. With Rosario, a different approach would be advisable; with Buxton, a different approach is absolutely necessary. It's going to continue to be uneven for Buck until he figures out how to get pitchers to throw the ball over the plate. Kinda, one step back, two steps forward path I suspect. I'll settle for a 'normal' bad start...just avoid the historically awful that he's had in the past.
  13. jkcarew
    1. health 2. Rodney 3. middle-long relief 4. Infield defense/range 5. Starting pitching 6. Hitting 7. Rochester's winning percentage Yes, I'm worried about the hitting.
  14. jkcarew
    Granite's biggest question mark is the bat, not his health. (Although the story may be his health to protect the ego, etc.) Given the profile of the starting outfielders, the bench OF role is bat-first, not defense first...don't need late-inning defensive flexibility as much as you need a bench bat that can actually hit. And Granite's bat has been truly awful in two small samples (including this spring). Also, with only two catchers on the 25-man, expect that Garver can be used only conservatively as a bench bat (when not starting). Hence, the desire for another right-handed bat...almost ANY right-handed bat. Enter Ryan LaMarre into the conversation.
  15. jkcarew
    The Gladden trade was the third significant move of the 1987 offseason. In February the Twins had acquired Jeff Reardon and Al Newman in separate trades with Montreal. They would trade for Joe Niekro on June 6, Dan Schatzeder on June 23, Steve Carlton on July 31, and Don Baylor on September 1. Value of '87 acquisitions (in terms of winning a WS).. 1. Reardon: could argue Gladden, except two words...RON DAVIS 2. Gladden 3. Don Baylor: post-season alone 4./5. Niekro and Schatzeder: Niekro more valuable in the regular season, Schatzeder in the postseason 6. Newman: a backup and barely replacement level (but a great guy!) Ironically the best player of the bunch by far, Carlton, provided no value...he was pretty much done, and wasn't on the postseason roster. However, I was at the Metrodome for his last major league win, and one-and-only win with the Twins. Puckett was 4-4 with 2 doubles and a HR. Early August...would have been a couple weeks before he went nuts at Milwaukee. He was pretty good. Thanks again, Matt!
  16. jkcarew
    The fact that we are talking about two 25-man spots confuses the conversation. At least it's puzzling to me. If the Twins are looking at this last spot being another outfielder, I can understand why they would consider LaMarre. They're considering LaMarre simply because they (presumably) have the roster spot, and because they'd take almost any right-handed bat at this time over Granite. So would I. On the other hand, what I expected is that the last spot would go to an infielder (who doesn't exist...at least yet). If something happens along those lines, the 40-man spot is taken, and LaMarre is at Rochester along with Granite. Unless you want our primary bench bat, and right-handed pinch-hitter and emergency DH to be LaMarre. That would be truly ballsy on the part of the Twins. Who gets the starts/innings if one of the big three goes on the DL is a completely different discussion.
  17. jkcarew
    Where would the roster spot come from? Grossman has been as good against left-handed pitching in the majors (or better) as LaMarre has been in the minors. Meanwhile, Grossman actually is a year younger than LaMarre. Weaken your bench 5 or 6 days a week so that you can have a better defender in a corner outfield spot one or two days a week?
  18. jkcarew
    No. No, it isn't. It's taking the stance that stances shouldn't be taken, because we don't know what happened. Period.
  19. jkcarew
    It works both ways...but the opposite of how you describe...at least, ideally.... No eyebrows should be raised, neither in the direction of Sano nor in the direction of the accuser. We don't know what happened...people whose job it is to find out, and who had access to whatever information existed, couldn't determine with any certainty what happened. That's the point. Moving on...
  20. jkcarew
    I agree with you, Kinley is going to get his shot. On the other hand, it seems weird to me that Granite would be the beneficiary of the Polanco suspension. With options, and needed development, why have Granite sit on the bench with the big club 3 out of every 4 games (at the least)...not needed for late-inning defense, not pinch-hitting? But sending Granite down and replacing him with an infielder, messes with the 40-man. Sometimes it's just better to defer that as long as possible. But there will be one person on the bench that can play 2B/SS/3B. That hand might get forced sooner rather than later.
  21. jkcarew
    We don't know what did and didn't happen. Anyone can accuse anyone. Some accusations can be substantiated, some can't. Confused by posters that had an expectation regarding an outcome without a clue of what actually happened. The only thing worth saying, IMO is....."now, we move on".
  22. jkcarew
    But, wait! Near-domination against a potent* Yankee line-up. (* The Yankees have a potent line-up, and Hughes was pitching against the Yankees.) Extrapolating a bit, this is a sub-2 era, nearly a K/inning...basically 7-8 WAR over the coarse of the year. Also, the .231 BABiP should be sustainable now that it's obvious he's healthy. Discuss.
  23. jkcarew
    Ahh! So, it WAS related to the Phil Hughes discussion. Suddenly, it's less interesting.
  24. jkcarew
    fwiw...I do think that BABIP is a batting skill...(or that, at the very least, sustainable deviations from the mean exist, and can be explained in terms of skills or combinations thereof). But it's a rare skill and not one that Danny Santana has. Also impressed that BABIP made it into this thread. Too tired to discover how or why.
  25. jkcarew
    Sano's unique power comes from the acceleration (and the mass) of his hip turn...not the way he uses his arms. In other words, that power ain't going anywhere...it's a combination of being huge and extremely flexible and athletic. So, I agree that the strike-out improvement need not materially affect the HR's. Just needs to make progress with pitch recognition and a more consistently disciplined approach (he's shown flashes)...and maybe a willingness to wait for the ball to get deeper with two strikes, which would reduce his number of HR hit with two strikes maybe, but not much I don't think, as he can reach the fences in any part of any park. I'd love to be Sano.
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