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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Fair amount of evidence to suggest the opposite. Also Bencomo’s a 29 year-old pitch to contact right handed that was just moved back down to AA after he DID take Enn’s turn in Rochester. Guys at Rochester ahead of him: May, Slegers, Gonsalves, Mejia, Littell....and probably also Jaye, maybe Baxendale...and then there’s Enns.
  2. jkcarew
    Was at the park...the nice thing about it is that it was a low laser...could have been cut off at mound depth if necessary. It looked ‘purposeful’ and under control. Encouraging.
  3. jkcarew
    Buxton's 2017 2nd half narrative was 'real'...but it has been overstated/overplayed. Last year Buxton had nearly 7% of his total bases for the season in ONE GAME. Probably a record for qualified batters. His swing has always been problematic and his WAR has always been inflated by defensive metrics...we know he's great in center, but the metrics inflate the value of that greatness. I agree with the last part...he doesn't have to hit a ton to have value...a lot of the value in on the bases, if/when he ever gets on base. His career OPS is now 672...as bad as that sounds, you could live with that (well, 700 would be more livable). What you can't live with is months upon months of 500, and then one month of 1000.
  4. jkcarew
    For perspective...playing together and batting consecutively in the order for Cedar Rapids... Baddoo - 788 OPS, 39/62 BB/K, 12/3 SB/CS, center-fielder, age 19 Lewis - 750, 13/30, 15/1, short-stop, 19 (just turned) Kirilloff - 978, 20/40, 1/1, right-field, 20 Lewis has not exactly dominated offensively by any means. But more than held is own and while playing SS and being one of the very youngest players in the Midwest league. Baddoo's walk rate is absurd, and his K rate is high...but he's had the highest OBP all year long, and has nearly as many x-base hits as Lewis, with way fewer balls in play. Kirilloff needs to be promoted yesterday...I don't feel the other two are necessarily screaming to be promoted at this time. I'm sure Lewis would be next in line while Baddoo works on the K rate.
  5. jkcarew
    Without the injuries/suspensions...Escobar would have been on the bench
  6. jkcarew
    If we assume Gordon is a 2B in the major leagues (not a SS...I’d be happy to be wrong), then you’d want to keep (either sign, or ‘not trade’) 2 of the 3 players, those players being Escobar, Dozier, and Gordon. And the ‘other’ 1, you should part with. I keep Escobar and Gordon...second choice would be keep/sign Escobar and Dozier, but only if that means I included Gordon in a trade for a MLB piece (presumably a catcher). Either way, I’m trying to keep Escobar. Add to that, if Mauer is done, without Escobar you have a big hole at 3B. So, Escobar, Escobar, Escobar. And Gibson.
  7. jkcarew
    Trading Gordon would require signing Dozier...or you’re filling one major league hole by creating another...I guess deadline buying dictates that you worry about next year, next year. Realmuto is worth real prospects in my opinion...to be considered now or during the off-season. Remember when we were all 100% sure Castro was going to be an upgrade from Suzuki? Or was it just me? I wish we had John Ryan Murphy backing up Suzuki right now. Sigh.
  8. jkcarew
    There have been 40 center-fielders with at least 1000 plate appearances since Buxton came into the league in 2015. Buxton ranks 39th in both wRC+ and OBP. Yet, he's the top priority for two of the panelists. I guess if you really, really, really believe he's going to hit and stay healthy...(not one, but two, things he's never done for any extended period of time)...then this would be the ultimate buy low moment. But if you're Buxton's camp, would you sell this low? As a local radio personality would say...'you're either on something...or onto something'.
  9. jkcarew
    Among the position players on this list, the career OPS+ values are: 58, 76, 80, 80 (Buxton), 91...and Sano's 123. Having said that, the offensive standard for Sano to have star-like value relative to these other guys will have to be higher, since most these others are catchers, center-fielders, or shortstops (other than Swihart at this point). It seems to me that, since returning from the hamstring, Sano is actively trying to make some adjustments in his approach at the plate. Sometimes, when that step if finally made, there is a step backwards before sustainable improvement. We'll see.
  10. jkcarew
    I would have expected Seth Halvorsen (Heritage Christian Academy) to have gone by now. Maybe the word's out that he isn't interested signing at/near the slot. Missouri, I think.
  11. jkcarew
    Mack was the 25th pick overall in a mock draft the Bleacher Report (noted baseball experts ) put together one year ago. Have no idea...maybe had a bad showcase summer season last year? Signability? Hopefully, the Twins have a good idea/information on the signability part of it.
  12. jkcarew
    I wonder what the answer would have been if the question had been "would Royce Lewis have been your top HIGH SCHOOL position player in this draft?". I would be surprised if KLAW had one of this year's HS players ahead of Lewis. But either way, there's no shame in that...it's just interesting. Lewis's downside seems to remain the possibility that he ends up a center fielder without much power. But it doesn't seem to be necessarily trending in that direction yet.
  13. jkcarew
    I have no problem taking a chance on 'injured' players in the 5th round. Especially pitchers...a huge percentage of them end up getting injured and recovering while they are in the minors regardless.
  14. jkcarew
    I agree with others here that the Twins must feel there is a realistic-to-good chance Jeffers can be a legitimate (average or close to it) MLB catcher. Decent defensive catchers with power are pretty valuable...even if the power doesn't come with great contact/obp.
  15. jkcarew
    DaShawn Keirsey - he's a year-plus removed from a catastrophic injury sustained running into the center field wall. Presumably would have fallen a bit as he didn't have normal summer experience/exposure last year. Presumably healthy/fully recovered. Toolsy. Don't know about the prospects for power, though he has decent size.
  16. jkcarew
    Plenty to be encouraged about with Enlow. Just turned 19, and holding his own in low A. No HR’s allowed in about 30 IP.
  17. jkcarew
    Yep...this is the way I look at this pick as well. If you’re in the back half of the 1st round and you go toolsy, you’re going to have a questionable bat. Hunter actually a good example...in his case the bat came around, but it didn’t look like it would for a long time. Instead, they went will a bat that they feel is significantly less questionable. In terms of an outfielder I don’t hate it because the Twins have their share of toolsy OF in the system. Not sure I wouldn’t have gone with one of the college arms...but we’ll see.
  18. jkcarew
    The 4 and 5 tool guys aren’t available at 20. The single most valueable tool is a good bat with power. That’s the bet here. Is that this guy will flat rake, and justify average corner defense or even a 1B role. Like all the others, time will tell.
  19. jkcarew
    Agreed. (Other than Bart) it's highly questionable that any of the college catchers would get to the majors before Rortvedt. This is Rortvedt's 3rd year of professional ball. He was a number 56 pick, and so far, he's far from failing...with a very good chance of being at AA Chattanooga by next year at 21. I'd take a catcher, don't get me wrong, but given what's there, I'd almost rather it be a very-high topside HS kid. All-in-all, BPA...I like the position guys better than pitchers, all other things being equal (which they never are).
  20. jkcarew
    Best HR percentages in the majors this year are all in the 7-8% area...Betts, Harper, Machado, Trout, JD Martinez, etc. John Ryan Murphy's sits at 9.2%. If Arizona starts him every remaining game, he projects to about 46, which I think would break Johnny Bench's record. Of course his 3/24 BB/K ratio and his 2% HR rate in 8 minor-league seasons would suggest that pitchers might be able to make some adjustments going forward In the meantime, I'd trade Moya back for him in a heartbeat (given our organizational situation at the position).
  21. jkcarew
    I'll take another SS! About 80% of the position players worth taking this high were shortstops for their HS and/or college teams. They can project to be average to plus defensively at several other positions if/when that time comes.
  22. jkcarew
    20th overall picks... 1993 - Torii Hunter (of) 1994 - Terrence Long (1b) 1995 - David Yocum (p) 1996 - Eric Milton (p) 1997 - Adam Kennedy (ss) 1998 - CC Sabathia (p) 1999 - Vince Faison (of) 2000 - Chris Bootcheck (p) 2001 - Jeremy Sowers (p) 2002 - Denard Span (of) 2003 - Chad Cordero (p) 2004 - Trevor Plouffe (ss) 2005 - Mark Pawelek (p) 2006 - Chris Parmelee (of) 2007 - Chris Withrow (p) 2008 - Josh Fields (p) 2009 - Chad Jenkins (p) 2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (2b) 2011 - Tyler Anderson (p) 2012 - Chris Stratton (p) 2013 - Jonathan Crawford (p) 2014 - Casey Gillaspie (1b) 2015 - Richie Martin (ss) 2016 - Gavin Lux (ss) 2017 - David Peterson (p) Note, the Eric Milton pick was by the Yankees, the other Twins players, were Twins picks. Most of the pitchers were college arms, especially the recent years. Milton and Sabathia were HS arms.
  23. jkcarew
    Exactly. 10 RBI in his last 5 games before today...but he’s killing us and we need to move him down in the lineup. Today he makes a nice play coming in on a ball when positioned at shortstop. But it couldn’t have been hustle because everyone know guys his size are lazy. And so it goes.
  24. jkcarew
    Nice report. A couple of comments allude to Baddoo ‘heating up’ or having had a slow start. But, his OBP has been over 400 pretty much all year...higher than Kirilloff’s...right among the league leaders. His approach is an extreme example of taking pitches, working the count and forcing pitchers to come over the middle of the plate. Results in a ton of walks...and a high number of strike-outs. Recently, more hits and fewer walks (relatively)...which might be a happy result of pitchers trying harder not to walk him. Good signs all around. In the top prospect summary, we had been including batter K’s, which is an important part of the development for many of these guys...especially Rooker. Seems Rooker’s K-rate has slowed down recently, even as the power has started to show up. Nice.
  25. jkcarew
    More articles on Failing Offense please!
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