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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    So, currently we're 8 points below the dead-ball era. And we're lower than every era except for the era that resulted in the mound being lowered. (The current game does remind me of 1960's baseball to a degree.) But having said that, this data makes it look like the 70's and 80's were the aberration rather than the norm. Of course, the huge difference is in how the .246 (or .230) BA is achieved. In the past it was achieved with a whole lot of ball-in-play guys...and a healthy minority of strike-out/power guys. Now it's achieved with considerably less diversity in approaches skill/sets. Almost everyone is (or is trying to be) the same player offensively. And that player hasn't been developed to put the ball in play or spray the ball all over the field. He's been trained to 'launch' or walk...and accept the resulting K%. We know why. And it's probably true to say that, regardless of what the modern formula dictated, the shrinking diversity of approaches/skills-sets was going to an inevitable result of the evolution of how kids grow up today and are trained. They don't so much 'play' baseball as much as they are 'trained' at it. Ironically, this is more true the more talented the kid.
  2. jkcarew
    I do think this is a problem...an 'unintended' consequence, if you will, of the sabermetric revolution...although other factors probably in play, as well.
  3. jkcarew
    Yep. Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP. As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse). This is not a trend anymore. It's just the way the game is played now. The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting. It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation. This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA. And this is how the player is developed. So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.
  4. jkcarew
    His velocity has been better than expected right from the beginning even when results were poor. I thought he...if used solely in the closer role...would be the Twins no. 1 problem/issue this season. As it turns out, I would have been happy to be correct. But it won't last forever, and we don't need him anymore this season...so, I'm with Thrylos, I hope we sell high.
  5. jkcarew
    With the 2018 season gone, I can agree with the Twins taking these drastic steps to attempt to reclaim an asset. At this point, I don't think the Twins should be in a hurry at all. Whatever those things are that are broken with Miguel, take the time to attempt a rebuild from the ground up with the remainder of this season (and the upcoming off-season). Meanwhile, I wouldn't mind a similar approach with Buxton at this point. Perhaps his challenges are narrower in scope than are Sano's. But there's no value in having a center fielder of any defensively ability that hits like a pitcher. And so far, he hasn't come close to handling the AAA pitching he's seeing. Hopefully that changes. But if July 9 comes around and it hasn't changed, it will be interesting to see the decision.
  6. jkcarew
    By the way...the 'lifer' condemnation (which is a thinly disguised reference to being old) we can do without in this thread. The insinuation that someone that's watched mlb baseball for 40 or 50+ years, for some reason, can't be capable of understanding and/or appreciating how and why the game has evolved...and can't be capable of objectivity...well, it's kind of offensive. And also smacks of defensiveness regarding how 'their generation' plays the game. Many on this board...including, those that fully embrace the sabrmetric revolution, have pointed out that it's suicide for baseball to stick it's head in the sand regarding current and future challenges. Denial is not a strategy for the future. It won't do any good for baseball purists (whether defined by 1970 or 2018 standards) to be "correct", if in the meantime the game dies in terms of it's broad public appeal.
  7. jkcarew
    True...but what is smart...and leads to more wins...does not necessarily make for a better game in terms of entertainment, pace, diversity/balance of styles. Flopping like you've taken sniper fire every time someone comes near you in the penalty area in soccer is smart. But it's downright abhorrent to have to watch all the time. I think that's the dilemma. There are 'good' reasons the game has evolved (taking pitches, launch angle, pitching changes, roster construction, 3-true outcome...etc., etc.) the way it has. But how do address/fix (temper?) some of the undesirable outcomes that have come along with that evolution (rhetorical)? I do believe it will get worse before it gets better. But I also believe the pendulum on some of this stuff will eventually swing the other way.
  8. jkcarew
    His career BA with RISP is three points higher than his career BA. Still, this just never gets old.
  9. jkcarew
    Very Good! Opening day lineup...they scored one run and lost... Jerry Kenny Rich Mc Kinney Bobby Mercer Roy White Ron Bloomberg Johnny Callison Thurman Munson (rookie) Bernie Allen Mel Stottlemyre (no DH)
  10. jkcarew
    Where did I use the term ‘little’ impact? I said overrated. And the reason is primarily that the game is played differently than it used to be. Basically sit around and wait for a couple of walks and a blast. Even today’s managers have said as much. Also, said the impact is still there...primarily revolving around bullpen moves...and that I don’t think the trend is Molly’s friend in that regard.
  11. jkcarew
    At some point "a stones throw of 500" means SELL. I hope.
  12. jkcarew
    Not watching...didn't see Escobar out.
  13. jkcarew
    Not that much different than yesterday's. Mauer in, Rosario out. Wilson in, Garver out. Except, I guess for the fact that about 30% of the team's total bases have been coming from Rosario.
  14. jkcarew
    You're right. I don't understand. I would have thought home runs are more important than walks in about 99.99 at-bats. I guess I'm really having trouble staying with these advanced metrics.
  15. jkcarew
    Barry Bonds actually proves the point that, within the context of real actual games...with real actual win/loss scenarios...that SLG can be way more important than OBP. He was intentionally given a base 688 times, and pitched around many, many more times than that...all to avoid his SLG...the manager deciding, correctly, that OBP would not hurt him as much as SLG would in those scenarios. Again, within the context of a game, you need both to win consistently. Dexter Fowler 362/421 career OBP/SLG for a 783 OPS. Bo Jackson 309/474 for 783, or Dave Kingman 302/478 for 780. Are there more instances where I'd rather see Fowler come to the plate than Jackson or Kingman. Probably. Are there almost as many at-bats where I'd rather have Jackson or Kingman come to the plate. Yes. This actually gets to sequencing and batting orders, which is a whole 'nuther discussion
  16. jkcarew
    Yes...didn’t get the a ball out of the infield this game. But a walk and only one K. Baby steps...and the toe must feel fine with the SB.
  17. jkcarew
    Is Joe’s lying on the training table in the clubhouse? ‘Cause, if so...it’s definitely an error on Dozier.
  18. jkcarew
    Yes. We’re talking who has the ability to make a big step up offensively from what they’ve contributed so far this year. It’s most likely Dozier right now...although Morrison and Kepler would be nice, as well.
  19. jkcarew
    I’m guessing it has to do with why they sent him to Fort Myers and not to Rochester. They’re working on the entire process, not just game hitting/results. I see in today’s game he hit two fly balls to right field. Hopefully those were not accidents.
  20. jkcarew
    I agree with earlier poster(s) that insinuate managers impact is overrated in today's game. But that's not to say the impact is non-existent, and I don't think Molly is a good in-game manager. IMO, this was apparent right from the start, and although he's gotten marginally better, he gets outmaneuvered in leverage situations pretty consistently (including instances where our ridiculous roster isn't hamstring him). So, I've always though his chance for being a plus manager would rely on softer skills: a 'whisperer' of sorts in terms of offensive and base-running development and approaches, and performance. I do like his demeanor/professionalism in the dug-out, with umpires, in after-game pressers, etc....and I respect him as a baseball guy. But, if he's not going to be that 'whisperer'...then, well...
  21. jkcarew
    Thanks much, Heezy...related in language even I can understand. The phrase I don't like in your post is "degenerative changes within the tendon". While, it doesn't seem this is going to bother the 19 year-old Lewis much at all (he stole a base last night in the All-Star game)...without surgery, does this make it more likely that a 23-26 year-old Lewis starts to lose his speed 'prematurely'?
  22. jkcarew
    It will be interesting to see how much swing-and-miss Trevor Larnach has in him when he gets to, say, A/A+...whatever that first level is that's significantly better than NCAA. Kirilloff has definitely been encouraging in that regard so far...reasonable K rate so far to go with all that X-base power for a 20 year-old. I'm hoping he continues to have this 'move up fast' profile.
  23. jkcarew
    Didn't mean to insinuate luck. Rose didn't drive the ball...he slapped at it. But he put the all in play a ton...and he put the ball in play in the infield a ton. He was very good at it. Without the turf...and we're talking about the old 'carpet on cement' turf at Riverfront in that era (and a few other 'stadiums'...especially in the NL)...his babip probably would have been still a notch lower, and he definitely would've had fewer doubles and triples. It was the same for all the singles/contact guys that had a turf home field in that era.
  24. jkcarew
    We could start a separate thread on this. Which I won't. I think it's great when the award goes to the best player. I'm just saying that that has never been the overriding criteria, and I'm also saying that I have no problem when what you've accomplished with your team weighs in. I have other, non-team sports to look to where the best always gets all the awards, like track, tennis, and golf. Just an opinion.(Also, missing out on Cy Youngs is just one of Santana's problems with his HoF case.)
  25. jkcarew
    Winning will always play a part in evaluating a players career in Baseball...and in Football....and in Basketball, etc., etc. Does it make for some 'unfortunate' outcomes? Yes. But it's better than the alternative where winning isn't considered at all. It's the object of their games, and what all are supposed to be playing for.
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