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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    A day well lived. Thanks for sharing!
  2. jkcarew
    I read the title and expected to read about a strong start from Graterol. I guess everything’s relative. One one hand, a half season’s worth of starts like that might actually slow his ascent. On the other hand, it was way, way better than his first start at Fort Myers. But the numbers ‘19’ and ‘101’ trump anything that appears in the box score. Understandably so.
  3. jkcarew
    Nice analysis. A lot of interesting data. In this particular case, I think conclusions are not obvious. Dozier’s walk rate is also down...at the same time his pitches per at-bat are up, his chase rate is down and his contact is weaker. Much of that is counter-intuitive. I think the simplest conclusion may be the only one that holds water...he’s simply not getting the barrel to the ball as frequently as in the past. His age profiles to where this starts happening. I think it’s been slightly compounded by bad luck...as his extraordinarily low BABiP (even for him) can probably not be explained solely by the marginally weaker contact.
  4. jkcarew
    Unless the play on the field is against Baltimore Orioles have averaged fewer than 3 runs every 7 innings, which is what they got off Gibson today. Baltimore has now scored 50 fewer runs than the Twins...with two more games played. Close your eyes for a moment, envision the typical Twins lineup and performance this year...and then contemplate a team being WAY worse offensively than that. That’s the 2018 Baltimore Orioles.
  5. jkcarew
    But why would we expect Kepler to turn into a league average BABIP guy? For some profiles (e.g. Dozier) it never normalizes to average, and Kepler shows every sign of being one of those guys. Never been even in shouting distance of league average...an easy target for aggressive shifts, rarely hits a ball hard to the left of center, etc. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to think Cave couldn’t be in the same neighborhood OBP-wise as Kepler, with the difference being who consistently shows more SLG.
  6. jkcarew
    Not to mention OPS in the neighborhood of 700 for the other 3/4 of games. Now, if he could catch....never mind.
  7. jkcarew
    This season is on the players mostly. Opening day starters that haven’t performed to their standard: Castro, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Morrison....and some of these performances haven’t just been poor...they’ve been catastrophic...oh, and the starting SS got himself suspended. While all of this has exposed an embarrassing lack of major league depth in specific cases ©, no organization is going to survive this many starters failing. Not saying roster weirdness (and on-field managerial challenges) haven’t made things more painful than they needed to be from time to time. Having said that, now is the time for the FO to come to the fore. The time for deferring to the manager’s methods/desire to win a game are past us. The moves with Sano and now Buxton were pretty drastic steps...now let’s see more of that. Sell and promote aggressively...learn as much as possible regarding young assets before this off-season.
  8. jkcarew
    Don't know how toolsy he really is. He's already bigger than most that end up sticking at SS, and he really hasn't shown any speed (at least in terms of SB) yet. On the plus side, more mistakes and bigger mistakes are made on the very young players...and this kid was drafted at a very young age. Maybe we'll have a 6th-round steel. Nice to see him already doing well at Elizabethton.
  9. jkcarew
    I think he has some pop. Pretty high percentage of his hits have been for extra bases...for instance, has more combined HR and triples than Lewis despite significantly fewer hits. So, I suppose that, along with the patient approach earns a lot of walks. (And a lot of deep counts and resulting K’s). It will really be interesting to watch his development.
  10. jkcarew
    Cool photo! Could we see that photo with Target Field as the backdrop some day?
  11. jkcarew
    Molitor is neither as good as the second half of 2017 indicated, nor is he as bad as the last couple months would indicate. I said before, I don't think he was the best choice when the Twins hired him. And don't feel differently now. Twins have made a few high-profile decisions with a nod to (at least a bit) of provincial thinking...Morris (he was coming off a pretty poor '89/'90 stretch), Mauer vs Pryor, Molitor. As Michael Lee Aday once said, "Two out of three 'aint bad".
  12. jkcarew
    I know it's easy to pile on Sano right now, and there's not much question Sano's future is trending decidedly down and Rooker's up. But just in an exercise in perspective, and also to remind ourselves that Sano is worth significant salvaging efforts...here is how Rooker's half-year at Chattanooga compares to Sano's half year there.. Sano, 22 years old, HR% 5.2; BB% 13.3; SO% 23.8; OPS 918 (Sano was coming off a missed year with Tommy John) Rooker 23 years old, HR% 4.3; BB% 6.9; SO% 28.5; OPS 813 Rooker seems to be making very steady progress, especially with the K rate. Encouraging.
  13. jkcarew
    The 1 K in 6 innings for Romero is curious...the swings and misses were down in his last few starts with Twins. Maybe something to keep an eye on.
  14. jkcarew
    I don't share your optimism... 1. Buxton has been a completely lost from day 1. And is currently completely lost at the AAA level. 2. Polanco will be replacing Adrianza (847 OPS in June while the Twins have continued to sink) 3. Castro had been awful offensively from the beginning of the year. The cost will not be 'low' for a Ramos rental. 4. Sano is not coming back any time soon. That has been made pretty clear by where they sent him. 5. Hanley Ramiriz? I think hoping for May Morrison to come back for July would be a better bet 6. Joe's been about the same player this year that he was in 2014, 2015, and 2016. And he's 35 years old now. It's really, really unlikely that anything in here (even we added a potential Dozier reawakening) would be enough to account for making up 8 games against Cleveland. I guess, you never know unless you try, and all that. But I wouldn't pass up on any opportunity to add even marginal value at areas of major league or organizational need...not to mention, to learn more about certain prospects by promoting them.
  15. jkcarew
    I think this is pretty fair/objective. I mean, you might bring Mauer back as a bench/depth player. But the challenge there is that he doesn't provide any defensive flexibility, which is critical with the number of pitchers on the modern 25-man. You might keep Dozier (price is looking lower every day)...say, in the unlikely event, for instance, that you used Gordon to obtain a real mlb catcher. I guess you could trade Kepler or Rosario (in a sell high)...but it would have to be for a good or very good right-handed hitting major league outfielder. Unlikely. Buxton or Sano would be too much of a sell-low scenario to be worth it. And the only reason I wait to sell closer to July 31 is if I think that gets me more leverage. So, yeah. This.
  16. jkcarew
    Which means that leaving one-third to one-half of the infield completely open has lead to lower BABiP. Try explaining that one to the baseball novice. Of course true SLG guys aren't going to give in...nor should they. On the other hand, a whole lot of guys that are getting shifted are not in that category.
  17. jkcarew
    So, currently we're 8 points below the dead-ball era. And we're lower than every era except for the era that resulted in the mound being lowered. (The current game does remind me of 1960's baseball to a degree.) But having said that, this data makes it look like the 70's and 80's were the aberration rather than the norm. Of course, the huge difference is in how the .246 (or .230) BA is achieved. In the past it was achieved with a whole lot of ball-in-play guys...and a healthy minority of strike-out/power guys. Now it's achieved with considerably less diversity in approaches skill/sets. Almost everyone is (or is trying to be) the same player offensively. And that player hasn't been developed to put the ball in play or spray the ball all over the field. He's been trained to 'launch' or walk...and accept the resulting K%. We know why. And it's probably true to say that, regardless of what the modern formula dictated, the shrinking diversity of approaches/skills-sets was going to an inevitable result of the evolution of how kids grow up today and are trained. They don't so much 'play' baseball as much as they are 'trained' at it. Ironically, this is more true the more talented the kid.
  18. jkcarew
    I do think this is a problem...an 'unintended' consequence, if you will, of the sabermetric revolution...although other factors probably in play, as well.
  19. jkcarew
    Yep. Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP. As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse). This is not a trend anymore. It's just the way the game is played now. The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting. It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation. This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA. And this is how the player is developed. So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.
  20. jkcarew
    His velocity has been better than expected right from the beginning even when results were poor. I thought he...if used solely in the closer role...would be the Twins no. 1 problem/issue this season. As it turns out, I would have been happy to be correct. But it won't last forever, and we don't need him anymore this season...so, I'm with Thrylos, I hope we sell high.
  21. jkcarew
    With the 2018 season gone, I can agree with the Twins taking these drastic steps to attempt to reclaim an asset. At this point, I don't think the Twins should be in a hurry at all. Whatever those things are that are broken with Miguel, take the time to attempt a rebuild from the ground up with the remainder of this season (and the upcoming off-season). Meanwhile, I wouldn't mind a similar approach with Buxton at this point. Perhaps his challenges are narrower in scope than are Sano's. But there's no value in having a center fielder of any defensively ability that hits like a pitcher. And so far, he hasn't come close to handling the AAA pitching he's seeing. Hopefully that changes. But if July 9 comes around and it hasn't changed, it will be interesting to see the decision.
  22. jkcarew
    Where did I use the term ‘little’ impact? I said overrated. And the reason is primarily that the game is played differently than it used to be. Basically sit around and wait for a couple of walks and a blast. Even today’s managers have said as much. Also, said the impact is still there...primarily revolving around bullpen moves...and that I don’t think the trend is Molly’s friend in that regard.
  23. jkcarew
    You're right. I don't understand. I would have thought home runs are more important than walks in about 99.99 at-bats. I guess I'm really having trouble staying with these advanced metrics.
  24. jkcarew
    Barry Bonds actually proves the point that, within the context of real actual games...with real actual win/loss scenarios...that SLG can be way more important than OBP. He was intentionally given a base 688 times, and pitched around many, many more times than that...all to avoid his SLG...the manager deciding, correctly, that OBP would not hurt him as much as SLG would in those scenarios. Again, within the context of a game, you need both to win consistently. Dexter Fowler 362/421 career OBP/SLG for a 783 OPS. Bo Jackson 309/474 for 783, or Dave Kingman 302/478 for 780. Are there more instances where I'd rather see Fowler come to the plate than Jackson or Kingman. Probably. Are there almost as many at-bats where I'd rather have Jackson or Kingman come to the plate. Yes. This actually gets to sequencing and batting orders, which is a whole 'nuther discussion
  25. jkcarew
    Yes...didn’t get the a ball out of the infield this game. But a walk and only one K. Baby steps...and the toe must feel fine with the SB.
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