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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I agree there have been big red flags for some time with Graterol in terms of his being a major-league starter. And also agree that pointing those out wasn't a way to become popular here. His TD prospect rankings these last two seasons are indications that the writers on this site mostly chose to ignore those flags. Still, I don't know that he NEVER becomes a starter. Never's a long time. But, it's clear to me based on the deal they made, that the Twins think it's unlikely to work for the foreseeable future.
  2. jkcarew
    Based on what? IMO, the jury is still very much out on this.
  3. jkcarew
    Have your 6th best pitcher pitch more and your best pitcher pitch less...as a deliberate strategy? This will be done as necessitated by injury and fatigue, not as a deliberate long-term strategy. The best pitchers will always be the best. Pay a guy...what, 2-5 times more than an average starter and 4-8 times more than a good reliever...then have him throw 140 innings? I don’t see this happening for a while. I won’t say never, though.
  4. jkcarew
    "Before you brandish your pitchforks, do know that I was born in Wisconsin..." Oh, yeah...that's SO much better. Just kidding. We love our Wisconsin Minnesota fans. Nice article.
  5. jkcarew
    In other news, every pitcher on the Twins current staff has better stuff than Walter Johnson because their k/9 is significantly better than his was. This is going to be a GREAT year!
  6. jkcarew
    Berrios threw 88 pitches to get through 4 innings, giving up 8 base runners (one on an error), and 3 runs, 1 earned. Did he embarrass himself? No. Nor did he pitch anything close to "well" if the objective is to beat a team who will be throwing Cole against you.
  7. jkcarew
    Soroka threw 140+ innings not once, but twice in back-to-back minor league seasons...and then the following year, he still didn't break camp with the major league club. Balazovic has reach 93 innings (last year). I think the challenge with thinking/wanting Balazovic to be like Soroka...is that that has to happen at age 18. Unfortunately, there's probably not any amount of wishing at this point that can somehow make Balazovic prepared to do what Soraka did at age 21. I would think/hope the Twins will push his innings this year (pending health).
  8. jkcarew
    Not sure how you come up with this take. IMO, a more accurate take would be "Poor development of starters necessitates Graterol trade". If we're talking about the current administration...and we're talking development (not draft/evaluation), particularly of starting pitchers...then this FO has had their hand in plenty of failures. Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero...even Graterol. Meanwhile, the others that have made it to the majors are a mix of 'we'll see' and low ceilings. For instance, Wes Johnson was widely quoted regarding his plans to get more velo out of the intriguing prospect that was Stephen Gonsalves. A year later Gonsalves is released. This staff didn't 'develop' much of anything out of the top starting prospects they inherited. Stewart, also nothing, Romero seems to have gone backwards, and Graterol may have been a lost cause, but they ended up trading him for far less than anyone would have imagined 12 months ago. If any of these guys...including guys like Thorpe, were looking like reliable major league starters by 2020, the Twins could have kept Graterol in the bullpen to make the overall pitching staff that much stronger. There's optimism that real success is right around the corner with Duran, Balazovic, and/or one of the currently-rostered young arms taking a big step. But up to this point?...some big disappointments...mixed with a few small wins with low ceiling guys.
  9. jkcarew
    6-5, 230. Balazovic closing in on 6-5, 220. It doesn't guarantee anything, but when assessing the chances that someone can sling a baseball 95 mph 3000+ times over the course of a summer, like a major-league starter will...the stats above help...a lot.
  10. jkcarew
    It's all about whether he will function effectively as a catcher in the major leagues. Highly questionable according to many reports when he was drafted. If that's trending favorably, and significantly so...which it seems to be doing...that would be huge.
  11. jkcarew
    I support the trade...even like it. But also acknowledge that the trade is a bet on Graterol not being able to handle a major-league starter's workload. If Graterol becomes a reliable starter in the major leagues...really any time in the next 3 years or so...then it is HIGHLY likely the Twins FO will regret this deal. But that's the nature of trades. You can't win if you don't play.
  12. jkcarew
    and 5 points if he had used 'short-lived'.
  13. jkcarew
    Too high. He's currently basically the equivalent of a promising player in the Dominican league...regardless of where the Twins happened to have drafted him. In fact, I bet the Twins wish they could have played him in the Dominican league last year...because there didn't seem to be a league in affiliated ball where he was suited to play.
  14. jkcarew
    There will be legitimate reasons that medical reports kill or modify trades. The behavior that does the damage is... 1. - leaking trades to the media/blogosphere before trades are final 2. - the media/blogosphere going with anything and everything they hear...or heard somewhere.
  15. jkcarew
    Is he more guilty than Polanco or Pineda because he hasn't been punished? He's not in control of punishment. Was his 'apology' any more dissatisfying than the 'apologies' offered by Polanco and Pineda? No and No. I'll say it again to anyone that can't stand the idea of Gonzalez being on the club: would you like the Twins to drop Polanco and Pineda as well?
  16. jkcarew
    Actually, I don't see it as "the other thing"....I see it as THE thing. It's the four years...addressing the starting pitching need beyond 2020...and doing so without inhibiting the ability to spend money on higher-end options (or Berrios, etc.) if/when that time comes. That's the get that off-sets having Graterol in your bullpen, IMO.
  17. jkcarew
    I'd rather make the trade to a team that could use him to beat us in the World Series than to a team that could beat us in the AL Central or the AL playoffs, wouldn't you? Were there a lot of other NL teams out there that could supply us with 4 years of a Maeda for $3M+ incentives per year?
  18. jkcarew
    I'm both good and disappointed with the trade. This is a good move for the next 3-4 years. The contract speaks for itself, and it addresses a big need which is starting pitching beyond 2020. This isn't really just a 2020 'win-now' move. The disappointing part is that this is confirmation that the Twins didn't see Graterol ever holding up to a major-league starter workload. And that's quite different from what everyone was hoping for when we ranked/discussed Graterol as being at the very top of the prospect list.
  19. jkcarew
    Of course they have an idea. They have a ton of information and data that you and I don't. And their information lead them to make the deal. What you are insinuating is that you think they'll be wrong. We'll see.
  20. jkcarew
    But there is no other argument. A good starter is worth more than a great reliever. Period. It's easier to find guys who can work 3-4 innings a week one inning at a time and get people out. Much harder to find guys who can throw 5+ innings a game, 200 innings a year effectively. And that's what's going on with this trade. If the Twins thought Graterol was going to be able to handle a major-league starter workload, they wouldn't have offered him for Maeda. (The presumption being that the Twins still feel like Balazovic will be able to handle a starters workload.)
  21. jkcarew
    I mean, if you really believe Graterol won't be able to handle a starter workload in the majors, you'd rather have Downs. So, I think the Red Sox FO will be able to sell it, given the narrative they've fed their fans for the last 48 hours. Downs is a middle-infielder (still playing mostly shortstop) who had a combined A+/AA OPS of .888....at age 20.
  22. jkcarew
    It's all a part of the slow, painful process of anger, denial, and acceptance of the fact that the Twins FO doesn't (didn't) think Graterol can be a starting pitcher in the major leagues. And, the accompanying belief that Balazovic is still on track to be a starter.
  23. jkcarew
    But if the Twins FO thought he was going to be a top starter they wouldn't have offered him in this deal, right...for a good-not-great starter? We can wish all we want, but it's pretty difficult now to suggest the Twins see Graterol as being a starter. Ever. Of course, that doesn't mean they'll be proven correct. We'll see.
  24. jkcarew
    Very legitimate sentiment, IMO. While, I probably side with those that feel we're seeing amateur hour unfold over in the Red Sox front offices....I don't think that exactly means that the medical records are 100% definitely irrelevant to this story. First, let's not pretend that we necessarily know everything in those medical reports...or that the Twins have made a practice of transparency with fans and media regarding Graterol's arm. Of course, they haven't. That's not the way things work. Meanwhile, there have been plenty of smoking guns in Graterol's young career. So, is it possible things might be at least a little worse than we assumed? That maybe reliever isn't a short-term choice, but a necessary long-term approach to manage injury risk? The fact that Boston should have been able to infer that the medical records would have issues based on public knowledge and Minnesota's willingness to trade him for Kenta Maeda...well that doesn't exactly say "but, the medical records are fine".
  25. jkcarew
    Every pitcher has a tough stretch or two...Berrios’s numbers are his numbers. The ‘concern’ regarding the Twins pitching has been, for the most part, how it stacks up in the playoffs. It’s relatively easy (in 2019, it was historically easy) to have success in the regular season playing in the AL Central. If your best starter is struggling to be a top 20 pitcher, you’re going to be at a disadvantage in the playoffs...and probably right out of the gate.
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