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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I'm both good and disappointed with the trade. This is a good move for the next 3-4 years. The contract speaks for itself, and it addresses a big need which is starting pitching beyond 2020. This isn't really just a 2020 'win-now' move. The disappointing part is that this is confirmation that the Twins didn't see Graterol ever holding up to a major-league starter workload. And that's quite different from what everyone was hoping for when we ranked/discussed Graterol as being at the very top of the prospect list.
  2. jkcarew
    Of course they have an idea. They have a ton of information and data that you and I don't. And their information lead them to make the deal. What you are insinuating is that you think they'll be wrong. We'll see.
  3. jkcarew
    But there is no other argument. A good starter is worth more than a great reliever. Period. It's easier to find guys who can work 3-4 innings a week one inning at a time and get people out. Much harder to find guys who can throw 5+ innings a game, 200 innings a year effectively. And that's what's going on with this trade. If the Twins thought Graterol was going to be able to handle a major-league starter workload, they wouldn't have offered him for Maeda. (The presumption being that the Twins still feel like Balazovic will be able to handle a starters workload.)
  4. jkcarew
    I mean, if you really believe Graterol won't be able to handle a starter workload in the majors, you'd rather have Downs. So, I think the Red Sox FO will be able to sell it, given the narrative they've fed their fans for the last 48 hours. Downs is a middle-infielder (still playing mostly shortstop) who had a combined A+/AA OPS of .888....at age 20.
  5. jkcarew
    It's all a part of the slow, painful process of anger, denial, and acceptance of the fact that the Twins FO doesn't (didn't) think Graterol can be a starting pitcher in the major leagues. And, the accompanying belief that Balazovic is still on track to be a starter.
  6. jkcarew
    But if the Twins FO thought he was going to be a top starter they wouldn't have offered him in this deal, right...for a good-not-great starter? We can wish all we want, but it's pretty difficult now to suggest the Twins see Graterol as being a starter. Ever. Of course, that doesn't mean they'll be proven correct. We'll see.
  7. jkcarew
    Very legitimate sentiment, IMO. While, I probably side with those that feel we're seeing amateur hour unfold over in the Red Sox front offices....I don't think that exactly means that the medical records are 100% definitely irrelevant to this story. First, let's not pretend that we necessarily know everything in those medical reports...or that the Twins have made a practice of transparency with fans and media regarding Graterol's arm. Of course, they haven't. That's not the way things work. Meanwhile, there have been plenty of smoking guns in Graterol's young career. So, is it possible things might be at least a little worse than we assumed? That maybe reliever isn't a short-term choice, but a necessary long-term approach to manage injury risk? The fact that Boston should have been able to infer that the medical records would have issues based on public knowledge and Minnesota's willingness to trade him for Kenta Maeda...well that doesn't exactly say "but, the medical records are fine".
  8. jkcarew
    Every pitcher has a tough stretch or two...Berrios’s numbers are his numbers. The ‘concern’ regarding the Twins pitching has been, for the most part, how it stacks up in the playoffs. It’s relatively easy (in 2019, it was historically easy) to have success in the regular season playing in the AL Central. If your best starter is struggling to be a top 20 pitcher, you’re going to be at a disadvantage in the playoffs...and probably right out of the gate.
  9. jkcarew
    Agree on the potential willingness to pull trigger sooner rather than later on a bench bat role given his age...but fwiw....it's not at all obvious to me that he's going to be a superior offensive player to Cave, and we can assume he's not going to be defensively superior. Cave was a 112 OPS+ guy last year (111 career now)...and also out-hit Rooker at Rochester last year. I guess his right-handedness could play in a platoon situation...(although, Cave even indicated the ability to handle left-handed pitching last year, in a small sample). That kind of power gives him a chip and a chance, though.
  10. jkcarew
    I'd be a low-teens guy on Rooker. The 2019 number are inflated...both in terms of what the International league was in 2019 (there were 4 guys at Rochester last year that slashed better than Rooker)...and in terms of his unsustainably high BABiP. In 2018, as a 23-year-old in AA, he was .254/.333/.465. That's not bad, but it's not great either. And he's 25 now. Could be a late bloomer like Garver (was Garver ever ranked as high as #9?)...but Rooker has a much slimmer margin of error. Guys that can hit for power and play a bad corner outfield or first base are a dime a dozen. Catcher, not so much.
  11. jkcarew
    I don't think the arbitration outcome impacts how the future plays out in any way. But I do think the arbitration process presented us a snapshot of where the parties are at this particular time. And it doesn't seem that they are close. Still time. Seems Jose is betting on himself, and seems that the Twins are not yet ready to go to the elite money level for him. Both seem reasonable positions to me, but it also seems that the better Jose does in 2020/2021, the less likely he is to stick here beyond free agency. I guess that could be looked at as a good thing.
  12. jkcarew
    Whatever criteria is used for age...Enlow comes out much younger than the last three pitchers who appear on these rankings...almost 4 years younger than Thorpe... and between 1 1/2 to 2 years younger than Canterino and Colina. Very much a work in progress with high upside, which is exactly what you would expect Enlow to be at this point and given his draft status.
  13. jkcarew
    "(Wallner) got in a healthy 291 plate appearances as a pro at age 21. The results weren't necessarily amazing, but they're almost eerily similar to those Alex Kirilloff put up in his own Elizabethton debut, as a first-round pick in 2016. I think we all recall what followed in the (delayed) encore." Granted, he's 'only' coming in at 14th, but let's not go there. Apples and oranges. Wallner was 21 coming off 3 years of D1 competition in a very good conference. Kirilloff, 18, coming in off of facing high-school competition...in Pennsylvania no less. Kirilloff's debut performance was vastly more impressive than Wallner's. I agree with keeping Javier in this neighborhood...for now.
  14. jkcarew
    Thanks for doing these! Just fun and interesting. I'm with Tom on Colina. A hard-throwing 5-11 (if that) guy that can rack up innings to be a year-after-year reliable starter? Doubtful. Not never...but doubtful. FWIW...we question a 21-year-old Graterol because he's never been able to exceed 102 innings pitched in a season. Colina's max is 109 innings...last year was less than 100. I would evaluate him lower as a potential guy on the back end of a bullpen.
  15. jkcarew
    Ensuring that Gordon started the season on the IL... just another example of the brilliance of the current FO.
  16. jkcarew
    Hyperbole much? I don't think I'll choose stealing signs in major league baseball games as the criterion against which I'll determine that Altuve is scum and Lombardozzi is a great guy. Then again, I think I might be in the minority here.
  17. jkcarew
    As a team, Houston's batting OPS was higher on the road than it was at home in both 2017 and 2018. Higher at home in 2019. If they're healthy, they'll be plenty good offensively. It's plenty fine with me that the Twins are even in the conversation...which they undoubtedly are.
  18. jkcarew
    This article gets ahead of itself quite a bit, IMO... Chacin won't even see the 40-man until/unless a fairly significant string of events unfolds. Barring a spring-training disaster, one or two of the young arms already on the 40-man will get the opportunities to start the season. If they fail as a group, and/or there are other injuries...and Chacin is good at Rochester....then maybe. It's just insurance...supplementary insurance even...the kind you buy when you already have insurance, but don't love it.
  19. jkcarew
    So, you're comparing him to A.J, huh? Good call, IMO. Come to think of it, the last time the Twins won a playoff series, Pierzinski was there...and played a HUGE role. Just say'in.
  20. jkcarew
    You mean like in the day's of Ty Cobb? If I'm trying to win, I'll take a measure of acid with the sugar...while absolutely acknowledging that it can go south just as easily.
  21. jkcarew
    Like others, I love the idea of Sano glued to the seat/spot next to Cruz...in the batting cage, dugout, clubhouse, plane. Please, Miggy...continue to be asking Nelson ton's of questions and watching every aspect of every single one of his at-bats.
  22. jkcarew
    I was thinking of posting an image of a street sign that read... '0 Street' I'm sure it's out there somewhere.
  23. jkcarew
    Nice article. Great point on Ramirez...in the 2nd-half, he was absolutely 100% the player that finished third in MVP voting the two prior seasons. He's a star. He's 27. Lindor just turned 26. We still talk about our 26-27 year-olds in terms of 'taking the next step'. What if Ramirez and Lindor can have even bigger seasons than they've had. Still very good chance of that...even likely at some point. And the pitching...so, yeah. Last year, pretty much everything that could go wrong for them, did go wrong. Lost some pitching...but still have pitching. We'll see...I still think they finish first or second.
  24. jkcarew
    Good point. Their combined 137 K's in those 412 AAA PA, just made it SEEM like they played a lot more
  25. jkcarew
    Congrats on the HS diploma, Jhoan!!
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