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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I’m think I’m with you on this one. My concern would be that my manager has more than one tool in the toolbox...in addition to the data which always speaks to the long run (and large data)...some willingness to experiment (and fail) with aggressiveness and learn which risks are worth taking on, and in which circumstances. The concern is that I have to squint really, really hard to see where Rocco is willing to do any such experimenting.
  2. jkcarew
    I guess it would depend on how he actually feels about his legs right now. But, yes...all things being equal, I’m sure he wasn’t thrilled coming out, and I’m positive the outcome pissed him off
  3. jkcarew
    Right. It served no strategic purpose. Donaldson is not known for being particularly slow, and Blankenhorn is not known for being particularly fast. Baldelli simply didn’t want Donaldson in a situation where he would be forced to kick it into the highest gear to win the game. He’s nothing if not consistent in his perpetual concern for tomorrow’s game and next month’s games. And maybe that’s smart...even though it’s extremely frustrating in the moment....especially when trying to snap out of a losing skid.
  4. jkcarew
    I don’t think Baldelli is good with in-game decisions. Position players or pitchers. It’s not a strength that he’s been able to demonstrate with any consistency so far. When the Twins have won games in bunches it’s been when the offense simply bludgeons teams into submission. Having said that, it’s become pretty obvious that this roster (at least how its played so far) doesn’t provide him with many good options. Alcala was probably the best option in place of Colome for the 10th...and he pitched yesterday and gave up a HR. Dobnak? And on the offensive side...there’s one or two regulars that consistently put balls in play where you could hit-and run, one guy that knows how to bunt, maybe two that can hit behind a runner...7 guys that strike out anywhere from often to constantly. The good news is this team isn’t going to lose many games...if any...where they hit like this. The starting pitching and defense are likely to settle down. Still, Rocco is kinda crippled in close games late, both from the standpoint of the bullpen and being able to manufacture runs offensively. If this club doesn’t hit HR’s in bunches, they’re not going to be good.
  5. jkcarew
    Twins took the high school kid with “protectable tools”. The Padres took the college guy that could play. (Padres traded Turner to Dodgers in a deal that netted Will Myers.)
  6. jkcarew
    Lot of patience here for a 6-7 team struggling offensively and expected to compete for a pennant. In general probably the right attitude but I’m not sure it needs to apply to Jeffers. Many here want Sano out of the lineup. Sano’s K’ing at a 34.6% rate and walking at over 23%. Jeffers 52.2% and 8.7%. He’s been overmatched. It’s a small sample, but it’s not unreasonable that a team in the Twins position might want to get him ever-day at-bats (C/1B/DH) in AAA for a bit.
  7. jkcarew
    IMO, all recent managers have had their strengths...even when the team has failed. And also weaknesses even when they were winning awards. Rocco’s no exception. Since the mid-80’s, the Twins have done overall better than most in the manager category. Rocco’s still learning IMO...and that’s probably the good news, as he’s already established some strengths.
  8. jkcarew
    You’re way more likely to win the game with the one-out at-bat than the two-out at bat. You can’t bat Jeffers there. Period. He’s K’ing in over 50% of his PA...that’s an actual statistic, not hyperbole...and he’s a rookie. If you’re not going to be aggressive with your bench in that one-out scenario...2nd and 3rd bottom of 8, one out, tie game, 5-game losing streak...when are you ever going to be? Even if they elect to walk Garver and you feel you HAVE to bat Riddle (lord knows why!) it’s still a one-out situation and Riddle has 800 career PA and MUCH lower K tendencies. At this point in time, even JT Riddle is an infinitely better option than Jeffers when you need a ball in play to win.
  9. jkcarew
    Arraez and Kepler take Baldelli off the hook for an atrociously managed game. Atrocious. If his excuse for sending Jeffers (and his 53% K-rate to the plate in the bottom of the 8th with one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd) was because he didn’t want to leave only one catcher available...then I’d use a different word: stupid. It’s the 8th inning and the extra-inning rule practically eliminates the possibility of anything close to a marathon. The things he’s good at have value. But he’s been pretty bad from the start on in-game management and doesn’t seem to be showing much improvement, IMO.
  10. jkcarew
    I am concerned with the offense. On the other hand (going into today)... Polanco’s BABiP: 147...he’s likely to turn back into 2018 Polanco at some point. Garver’s BABiP: 143 Sano’s BABiP: 111...meanwhile, his SO% is exactly the same as 2019, BB% higher Twins OPS is 3rd overall in the AL; they lead the AL in OBP (you read that correctly) Twins team SO% is exactly league average and their BB% is better than league ave. It warps the mind, but this is what baseball looks like now. What the Twins haven’t done is make the big pitch, or the big play, or the big hit to turn close games. That will probably turn at some point.
  11. jkcarew
    I mean, yes, I’d drop Polanco in the order, specifically as it relates to Arraez’s position. I was concerned with how many of these guys were swinging the bat this spring, and some of that has carried over. On the other hand...(doesn’t include today’s 14 innings)... Polanco’s BABiP: 147...he’s likely to turn back into 2018 Polanco at some point. Garver’s BABiP: 143 Sano’s BABiP: 111...meanwhile, his SO% is exactly the same as 2019, BB% higher Twins OPS is 3rd overall in the AL; they lead the AL in OBP (you read that correctly) Twins team SO% is exactly league average and their BB% is better than league ave. It warps the mind, but this is what baseball looks like now. What the Twins haven’t done is make the big pitch, or the big play, or the big hit. That will probably turn at some point.
  12. jkcarew
    We’re making this conclusion based on 3 appearances? Really, it’s 2 normal appearances, because his first was in the make-believe 10th inning scenario where he faced two batters and gave up a single and a ground ball to second. (I do think it strange to give a low K% guy like Dobnak the first extra inning.) Still, in both of the two normal outings, he completely shut down the opposition for his first two innings and then was poor (to very poor) in his third inning of work. It’s seems kinda hard given that small set of outcomes to conclude he’s likely to be more effective as a starter. How about instead we limit him to no more than two innings in tight games, and avoid using him (or defer his use) in extra inning scenarios?
  13. jkcarew
    It’s nice to have that 8-man bullpen for 7-inning games, though...right? Our top two starters did their best to make this look rational. But it isn’t. It’s a joke and an embarrassment to the 150 years of Major League Baseball that preceded this.
  14. jkcarew
    As a Sano fan, I think patience is warranted. He comes across as a great teammate who really enjoys the game and the success of his teammates. And when things turn, the power can win games all by itself. But I have to admit that even I get dejected with the slow overall progress. I wish the concept of letting the ball get deep and going the other way would finally click at some point. It won’t cut down on the HR rate (much) as he’s so powerful he can reach any fence in any park...and it would help the K’s and the BA so so much. It’s exactly what Cruz does. I also worry that he’s starting to get frustrated himself. The happy-go-lucky, everything’s great, body language that he’s pretty much always been able to maintain seems to be cracking a bit. That would be a shame because one of the best parts about watching Sano is that he always seemed to be having so much fun out there almost no matter what.
  15. jkcarew
    One of those games where Berrios had no idea where the ball was going. It works against a lineup like Seattle’s...not against top-end experienced lineups. Still fun to watch him, works fast and never afraid to throw the ball over the heart of the plate (or try to) when the situation is calling for that.
  16. jkcarew
    Theoretically, Buxton. Theoretically. When he’s playing AND hitting, there’s no way a starting pitcher can be that valuable. Having said that, I’m not yet a believer in his ability to play 140 games a season. I’ve remained a skeptic regarding his bat, as well, but I’m seriously rethinking that position.
  17. jkcarew
    Dominate the opener, then lose a game you should have won, then win a game you should have lost. That’ll do.
  18. jkcarew
    Impressive pitching pretty much the entire series. Very encouraging.
  19. jkcarew
    Before the opener, I would have said a postseason series win. But now I feel like it needs to be...consistently know what base you should be throwing to if the ball is hit to you. And winning a postseason series.
  20. jkcarew
    Kinda missing the point by citing Rooker’s ST slash line by itself. It’s the K’s...which are not as beholden to the mitigating circumstances of sss as are the other factors going into the slash line. Rooker struck out in 48% of ST PA’s. 48%. He made Sano, who had an absolutely atrocious spring offensively, look like Wee Willie Kepler. Rooker started out decent, and then was pretty much a train wreck in appearances over the last 2-3 weeks. As someone who was likely to platoon quite a bit (and on the short end of the platoon), I’d much, much rather see Rooker iron out some issues as an every-day player at AAA. He’ll be back when/if he irons things out.
  21. jkcarew
    I do think the quality of depth is in a good spot. In fact, I’m getting a high-floor/low-ceiling vibe for this club. Hope I’m wrong on the ceiling part, but I’m having a hard time figuring out where the offensive resurgence is going to come from. One final elite/healthy year from Donaldson? Meanwhile though...we continue to perpetuate the myth that certain players from the 2019 Red Wings had ‘monster’ years. Context. Zander Wiel posted a 834 OPS. Entire teams matched that in the 2019 IL. Rochester posted 810 as a team. Jaylin Davis posted a 1112 in a partial season. Jake Cave a 984, Brent Rooker a 933, Tomas Telis a 854. Wiel, someone who apparently can only play 1B/DH, was ‘decent’, not ‘monster’.
  22. jkcarew
    The analytics say it’s more important to be above average offensively than above average defensively...and that ethos has strengthened as balls-in-play have continued to decline. So, we can say it’s ‘flexibility’ or a ‘better/new’ type of athlete, but I don’t think that’s the case at all...and that take doesn’t pass the eye-test, either. If anything, today’s players are much slower (and bigger/stronger) on average than players of 30 years ago. Instead, IMO, it’s simply a growing trend, an inevitable trend given the modern game, to put the organization’s 9 best available hitters in the lineup as often as possible, while making the considerable defensive compromises necessary to make that happen. Defense-first players are dinosaurs, only existing at C, SS, and CF...rapidly approaching extinction at CF, and critical habitat showing signs of stress at SS and C. Great defensive players will continue to come along, but more and more as opportunistic occurrences and less and less structurally (i.e., how players are developed, evaluated, and promoted). The bias for offense above defense is greater now than for any previous era.
  23. jkcarew
    Rooker was so upset upon being notified of this injustice, that he went right out there and posted three more K’s in 3 AB...to bring his ST K% to a tick over 46%. He should demand a trade.
  24. jkcarew
    “Flexibility” is simply a product of developing a top-end starter once every blue moon, (and refusing to play anywhere near the top end of starting pitching free agency). Still, it’s something to be thankful for in these uncertain times. But for the grace of God, our favorite club could be saddled with the perennial dilemmas faced by Cleveland or Tampa Bay of whether to pay or trade for can’t-miss blue-chip prospects, their growing stable of all-star starting pitchers.
  25. jkcarew
    If the Twins overall starting isn’t a good notch better than the White Sox, I think it’s going to be hard to win the Central for the Twins. Last year the Sox lineup was better than the Twins, but their starting pitching wasn’t close. Jimenez hurts the Sox, for sure, but it’s not like the Twins lineup has added offense. I think the thing I feel best about relative to Chicago as a Twins fan is Larussa. Could work out, I suppose. I’m sure he hasn’t forgotten how to manage a game. Still, it seems that there’s the real potential that that blows up and maybe sooner than later?
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