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IaBeanCounter

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Everything posted by IaBeanCounter

  1. IaBeanCounter
    The problem will be home plate umpiring! According to the Umpire Scorecards the Twins opponents In 3 games have been favored to the tune of 1.46, .96 and .43 runs. Yesterday the umpire took the bat out the hands of 2 of our batters.
  2. IaBeanCounter
    On the Twins/mlb site Gray is listed as the game 3 starter.
  3. IaBeanCounter
    This sounds what Toronto decided before game 2. I am for this move in that Baily has performed well on the road against playoff teams: LAD 6 IP, 1 ER TB 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR Bal 7 IP, 0 ER Milw 5 IP, 2 ER. 1 HR
  4. IaBeanCounter
    They will also have homefield in the World Series if they face AZ.
  5. IaBeanCounter
    Ryan at home wouldn't be a bad thing. In 6 innings he only gave up 3 hits and a walk, the problem was they were all in the same inning, with the last hit being a grand slam.
  6. IaBeanCounter
    I would switch out Ober for Ryan for the Hou series. Ryan has pitched 10 innings against Hou given up 9 runs (4 home & 5 away) and 3 HR. Neither Maeda or Ober pitched against Hou this year. The following is the road IP, ERA, HR, WHIP and ERA for last 7 games for each pitcher: Ryan 79.1, 5.22, 20, 1.26 & 4.79 Maeda 59.1, 3.03, 8, 1.04 & 4.41 Ober 68.0, 3.57, 9, 1.06 & 3.53 I can make a strong argument for either Maeda or Ober to start game 1. If the Twins are as analytical as they claim they wouldn't let Ryan face Hou.
  7. IaBeanCounter
    I believe that once Toronto clinched a playoff slot on Saturday they preferred to play the Twins and they called up a minor league pitcher who gave 9 runs in 4 innings to seal a loss and the 6th seed. If that was the case Karma may have upset their plans. The Twins played very well and Tampa Bay played poorly. JMHO
  8. IaBeanCounter
    Who is better defensively at first Kirilloff or Solano?
  9. IaBeanCounter
    As you mentioned Ryan has terrible home/away splits. If the Twins win today, Ober should be the game 1 starter vs HOU. Ober has a very small home/away split. As stated above Ryan would get a start when the Twins return home.
  10. IaBeanCounter
    The youngsters took a lot of pitches, I'm wondering if the pitch challange in the minors trains them to be better judges of pitches.
  11. IaBeanCounter
    or 13
  12. IaBeanCounter
    I think you should go for 2023rd post
  13. IaBeanCounter
    Thanks, I looked Gameday and thought how could both Larnach and Luplow make the roster. I believe the roster had to be submitted by 9 today.
  14. IaBeanCounter
    Gameday matchups
  15. IaBeanCounter
    Hopefully I am wrong regarding Lewis. The Gameday doesn't have him in the matchups, but the Twins transactions have him being activated from the IL.
  16. IaBeanCounter
    Larnach and Luplow made the roster
  17. IaBeanCounter
    No Lewis or Buxton for WC series
  18. IaBeanCounter
    Since both of his injuries this year have been batting or baserunning, if he is not capable of playing the in field I would have him on the roster as the last position player for a pinch hitting situations. This year who would your rather come up with runners in scoring position, Buxton or Lewis? OBP Tot v RHP v LHP OPS Tot v RHP v LHP Lewis .372 .372 .375 .920 .962 .787 Buxton .294 .307 .256 .732 .767 .628 Having Lewis as a PH allows Julien to DH, Polanco at 2nd & Farmer or Castro at 3rd The Twins averaged 4.67 runs against Tor with all the games before the AS break. The Twins averaged 4.18/game before the AS break 24th MLB. After the AS break they averaged 5.61 runs/game 5th in MLB. I believe we will score enough to win the series, the question in my mind is if the pitching and defense will contain Tor. BTW the Twins record against all playoff teams is 24-26.
  19. IaBeanCounter
    Lewis' OPS vs RHP is .962. So having him bat against a righty shouldn't be a problem, i was surprised that is OPS vs LHP was only .787. The more RHP we see the better.
  20. IaBeanCounter
    You stated it well, with a 14 position player roster the choice is between Buxton and Stevenson. In my heart I've always felt the Twins would find a way to put Buxton on the playoff roster. My mind tells me it comes down to how well Buxton can run, because pinch running may create a run. With a 15 pp roster for the WC, both should make it.
  21. IaBeanCounter
    According to Statcast sprint speed (feet/sec) and Jump (reaction feet vs avg) Larnach 26.7 / -1.6 Wallner 28.0 / -3.6 Stevenson 29.3 / not listed Gallo 26.6 / .4 MLB average all positions 27.0. I was surprised by Gallo's speed or lack there of, but he does have an above average jump. Larnach is slower than Wallner, but he gets a better jump on the ball (not good but better than Wallner). I would go with the four named above, as I believe Stevenson's speed may become a factor.
  22. IaBeanCounter
    I don't believe that is "pure conjecture" as it based on the following assumptions: 1) Twins scoring results will not change based on whether Gray is pitching or "replacement player". To say otherwise is to believe that the Twins batters have a bias against Gray and don't want score runs when he pitches. 2) Any "replacement player" will have a worse ERA as evidenced by Gray leading the team starters in ERA. 3) Any "replacement player" will pitch fewer innings, putting more stress on the bullpen. Gray averaged 5.8 innings per start (second only to Lopez). In the 22 games not started by Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Maeda or Ober the pitchers average 4.95 innings per start, almost a full inning worse than Gray meaning that the bullpen will have to pick up an additional 26.4 innings over the 31 Gray starts. Based on the above, I do agree that the results "would have been completely different", in that the Twins would have had more losses. What assumptions do you have that the Twins would have had results better than Gray's with a "replacement player" pitching?
  23. IaBeanCounter
    The Twins said the they DFAd Floro to make room on the 40 man. I only have 39 on the 40 man. 28 active, 7 in minors (Balazovic, Headrick, Henniqez, Sands, Winder, SWR & Celestino) and 4 on 10 day IL (Correa, Lewis, Gallo & Buxton). The Twins roster has Alcala, Centerino, De Leon, Mahle, Moran, Gordon & Miranda on the 60 day IL. What am I missing?
  24. IaBeanCounter
    Of Gray's 31 starts the Twins scored 3 or less 17 times with a record of 6-11 a winning percentage of 35.3%. Of the 11 losses the bullpen had a BS in 5 of them. The BP has had 26 games with a BS (1 game had 2 BS), 10 of which Gray was the starter. Gray had a BS in 32.3% of his starts. There were 16 games with BS over the remaining 125 games, or 12.8% The Twins have a total of 64 games scoring 3 runs or less with a 15-49 record so the bats have been consistent with the other starters. In the 47 other games scoring 3 runs or less the record is 9-38, a winning percentage of 19.1% IMHO Gray gave the the Twins a greater chance to win when the bats weren't performing and had the bullpen let him down more often that the other starters. Therefore I believe he is the Twins 2023 MVP, as a replacement starter would have lost substantially more games than Gray.
  25. IaBeanCounter
    Don't the Twins have an open slot on the 40 man, 28 on the active, 7 in the minors and 4 on the 10 day IL? Or am I missing something?
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