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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Sano is the DH now. He could be third base next year, which makes Plouffe a valuable trade chit. The Twins will have a better idea of what he'll be in three months (starting some time soon when Plouffe goes on leave). I don't expect them to pick up another starter but Berrios should be with the club next season and Meyer is a wild card. If they acquire Tulo, one of the starters (Gibson, May, Berrios) is almost certainly out the door. The rotation is far from a strength on this team and I don't see how they lose one of those pieces and remain competitive. The Twins have a lot of moving parts right now. Their two best prospects are still question marks. They'll have something resembling an answer to those questions after the season is complete. Their outfield looks decent right now but question marks remain. In two months, they'll have a better idea whether Hicks and Rosario are for real (and hopefully Arcia). Young teams are volatile. It doesn't make a lot of sense to start moving critical pieces when any number of young players could collapse tomorrow. Every single valuable player is under team control for 2016. This shouldn't be a "get it done NOW" situation. Ride the wave, hope things go right, and prepare to adjust this offseason if they don't, comfortable in the knowledge that you'll have more information to make an educated decision at that point (not to mention the market will be more favorable to you over the winter months). If the Twins had 4-5 young players rocking and rolling, one or two team issues, and had played better than .500 ball for the past eight weeks, I'd feel differently about it. You throw caution to the wind at that point and make your push. The Twins aren't in that position. They're a hugely flawed team that is riding one good month but have looked mediocre/bad outside of that one month. That doesn't instill faith in their ability to compete down the stretch. Make a few small moves, try to stay in contention, hope a few players get hot at the right time. If they don't, oh well. Make adjustments this winter and try again.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    To me, the money isn't as important as the pieces the Twins have to give up to acquire Tulo. If the Twins are going to win for a prolonged period of time, it's going to be on the backs of Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Meyer, Kepler, Gibson, May, et al. Several of those pieces are off the table if you acquire Tulo and the Twins have so many flaws they need those players. Even with Tulo, the team still needs a handful of good players to win and they don't have those players. Tulo doesn't fix catcher, DH, the rotation, or the bullpen. The team has too many holes and one player isn't going to solve that problem.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Exactly. You've essentially removed both options this offseason because you have no prospects left to trade and you've spent all your money.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    There are always players available in the offseason. They won't be as good as Tulo but they'll be available, either in FA or in reasonable trade that doesn't require Ryan to light the farm on fire.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    This argument really needs to be put to bed. Ryan has spent decent money the past two seasons. There's no reason he can't do the same this offseason. With that said, why this would happen in the next week: July, 2015. Terry Ryan: I'd like to give up a few prospects for the honor of paying Troy Tulowitzki $100m over the next half dozen years. Jim Pohlad: AWESOME. LOVE IT! Whoo hoo! *Ryan and Pohlad high-five* But if July passes, this magically happens? November, 2015. Terry Ryan: I'd like to give Player X $60m to shore up our horrible shortstop/catcher/whatever situation. Jim Pohlad: Go **** youself, Terry. *Pohlad punches Ryan in the face* If the Twins have money today - and I'm not saying they do - then they have money in November.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it depends. If you play the MiLB guys, you get to rotate through 3-4 of them you wouldn't have if you acquired Tulo. You'd also have $20m to go buy a player in November. With Tulo, you have none of that. You have Troy Tulowitzki. All the eggs, one slightly cracked Faberge basket. Tulo has more upside in the short term but I'm not sure short-term upside should matter to the Twins because I don't think they're very good. But any way you shake the tree, Tulo is a riskier proposition.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Eduardo Escobar posted a 2.5 WAR in just over 400 PAs last season with the vast majority of his innings coming at short. It's not only possible the Twins would be a few games better than they are now with a different player at short, it'd be hard not to be a few games better. Santana is one of, if not the, worst position player in baseball this season. At that point, it's hard not to improve.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, scratch one part of that post. 2013 Aaron Hicks was better than 2015 Danny Santana by pretty much every standard you can grade a player (OPS, defense, WAR, whatever). All of you Santana supporters, let that sink in for a moment.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I have the same problems with Tulo but I'm not entirely against the deal. The biggest issue I have with it is that I doubt the Twins win in 2015 with or without him. And that means you've burned through one of Troy's remaining productive years. He might have 3-4 more in him. He might have one. He might, god forbid, have none. He's a risky player and it's a risky deal. His injury history scares the hell out of me. I love his bat but have serious doubts it can stay on the field.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Whether Santana is the best prospect at short is irrelevant because in the here and now, he's one of the worst position players in baseball. Should Aaron Hicks have spent all of 2013 on the Twins because he was their "best" prospect? Of course not, that's ridiculous. Hicks wasn't learning in 2013. He was getting the **** kicked out of him on a nightly basis. That's not productive for the team and it's not productive for the player. 2015 Danny Santana is 2013 Aaron Hicks. They were/are "learning" at the MLB level the same way I'd "learn" how to box by getting in the ring with Floyd Mayweather.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Good post. I'd run with Escobar at short first... You can always call up Polanco later. I'd also pick up a bullpen rental to pour some water on that dumpster fire. But, like you, I'd be in no rush to move valuable assets unless the deal just felt perfect. This team isn't good enough for that and one guy isn't going to make them better enough.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, what's important is the groundball rate (highly repeatable) and the K rate (a new addition but likely repeatable). If those two things are in place, Gibson is an above average pitcher. He's never had a real issue with walks so that's not a concern. Im bullish on the K rate staying high because he has carried it over a dozen starts. Striking out 2-3 more batters per game means he's getting 5-10 more swings and misses per outing. That's up to 10% of his total pitches per start. It's highly unlikely that's luck. Maybe over 2-3 starts but not a dozen. That's the equivalent of getting 100 lucky pitches where the batter simply missed the ball. It doesn't add up.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    While you two can go around about Gibson all night, there's one very revealing stat: For the past 80-90 innings, Kyle has approached one strikeout per inning (somewhere around 8 per 9). Strikeouts, unlike ERA or almost any other stat, are generally not prone to wild fluctuation with moderate sample sizes. This turn in Gibson's career arc is likely not anomalous because pitchers rarely get lucky by missing bats en masse. Add in Gibson's continued ground ball dominance and you have a pitcher that looks to sustain some level of above average performance.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    There is one month where every one of Gibson's stats is unlike the other months. That is April. As I pointed out in another thread, it wasn't hard to spot the evolution of Kyle Gibson going back to last year if you were paying attention. In 75-80% of his starts, he was either stellar (4 ER). IIRC, he had about five "mediocre" starts. That's... Strange. When examining a player in his first full season, that's a very promising sign even if the aggregate stats completely miss those nuances by adding stellar and awful to equal mediocre. Which is why you sometimes need to look past the aggregate stats when dealing with young players and why career stats are basically junk.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    1. He's 27. 2. He had 230 MLB IP going into this season. You can't fault a guy for getting TJ surgery and setting back his timeline nearly two full years.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    They need a catcher. They need a shortstop. They need a bullpen. Catcher needs to be found externally. It will be a massive failure of that isn't fixed by February. Shortstop probably needs to be found externally. That's why I'm not 100% against Tulo. The bullpen should have had open auditions two months ago. I think that has a chance to be fixed internally and by picking up a decent vet. The rotation... Well, cross your fingers on Meyer and Berrios. I don't see how else it will get fixed. Having a full season of Santana should help somewhat. He's not amazing but as a third starter, he should be okay.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    If Buxton is hurt again, thems the breaks. Notice one thing about my post: I didn't point out two of the three biggest issues on the 2015 Twins - shortstop and catcher. This team has three major glaring flaws - bullpen, catcher, shortstop. It has question marks in centerfield, the rotation (as far as the playoffs are concerned), and I'm putting the bullpen here again because it's that bad. Where the team is set with a player, they offer middling production from most of the field: first base, left field, center field, right field, DH. This isn't a team poised to get hot and thrive in a playoff environment. It's a team poised to scuffle along and barely miss or make the playoffs. If Ryan were to somehow transform this team into a solid contender, he'd have to trade half the farm and swing 4-5 deals just to get the Twins to the level of the Angels or Royals. This isn't the 2010 Twins that were an incredibly solid team from front to back. It's not a surprising but sustainable team like the 2002 team. Hell, it's not even the rounded but flawed 2006 squad. The 2015 Twins are closer to the 2001 Twins than any other team in recent memory and that's not a team you bank on down the stretch. You shore up minor issues without giving up much, hope a few things break right, and don't get too upset if they don't.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    For me, it'd require a few things: - Buxton, Sano are healthy and contributing - Berrios or another pitcher looked like a decent or good playoff starter - The bullpen wasn't laughably bad The third issue is somewhat fixable (but not entirely, the issue is too widespread), the second issue isn't, and the first is entirely up in the air. I keep saying it but I'll say it one more time: this team is simply not that good. They banked +11 wins largely through luck and have spent the past eight weeks scratching to play just .500 ball (and they've missed the mark by 3-4 games). I don't expect the Twins to be a .500 team after the break. They'll probably be close but four months of .500 ball does not a world champion make.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Groan. That statement is a joke but feels disturbingly accurate.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    All of this, though I'm not particularly in love with Kepler. I think he's making a good case to sell in an org with too many outfielders. I'm all for improvement to keep the door open but this team isn't particularly good, IMO, and it can't really be fixed in a single deadline. Try to stay relevant but don't try to force the issue by trying to turn this team into something it isn't (dominant).
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but he's not unlike Mauer in that his value drops like a stone the moment he can no longer play a premium position. Not to mention that it creates positional issues on a team that already has Joe Mauer on it. And that's a real risk for a shortstop signed through his age 35 season. His bat should carry to another position but it won't carry particularly well unless he stays over .800 and I'm not sure that's a reasonable expectation.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really have any concerns about his bat. I think he's a .820, maybe .840 hitter in Target Field. That's pretty awesome. My concerns revolve around defense and health. His health is an immediate concern but the defense should be fine for a year or two. My major concerns revolve around 2017-2018. All one has to do is look at Joe Mauer or Albert Pujols previous to this year's Renaissance to see how badly things can go after 30.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know when the decline phase will come either but it significantly raises the risk of the deal. If 2015 Tulo is the Tulo going forward, he needs to hit better than Brian Dozier to sustain the greatness he had in years past. He isn't hitting that level offensively this season, either... He has the talent to do it but each question mark raises the risk of the deal.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Good catch on the partial seasons. I forgot to equate for that. But either way, he's not the defensive player he was earlier in his career. It's likely he will become below average defensively relatively soon.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that pretty much sums it up.
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