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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    We shouldn't be concerned. This is a typical arc for a young player that thrives after a call-up. Pitchers and coaches acquire film on the player. They find his weak spots and exploit them, often by throwing an inordinate amount of breaking balls. Now it's up to Sano and Bruno to adjust to the new approach.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Perkins in entrenched as the closer provided he doesn't implode... And I'm okay with that. Given the role of the "closer" in baseball, I've come to the opinion your best reliever should not be the closer. Coming into a fresh inning with the bases empty and a 2-3 run lead is going to result in a win the vast majority of the time with even a mediocre guy in the closer role. So if no one in baseball is going to use a true Bullpen Ace model, the best guy on the staff should be used in the seventh or eighth innings depending on the game, ready to come in with runners on base during a critical situation (or even a fresh inning with the heart of the lineup coming to the plate). Put your second-best guy in the "closer" role and go with a quasi bullpen ace model.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Play nine games that way and see who wins more consistently. Come on, you're being intentionally difficult. This is baseball. Sometimes games are won with a swinging bunt. That doesn't mean you train your players to rely on swinging bunts. The pitcher who can put the ball where he wants it (command) is going to beat the player who can throw it in the strike zone (control) more often than not.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The two are sometimes used interchangeably but yeah, that's about right.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Rotations like the Twins' 2011-2014 rotations are an example of the weakness of FIP/xFIP. If a pitcher is really bad, it tends to break those stats because FIP/xFIP assume a pitcher has a relative level of competence and isn't getting drilled every time contact is made with the ball. This isn't an indictment of FIP/xFIP, though... It's an indictment of those rotations. They were terrible and most of the rotation underperformed their advanced metrics by a healthy margin. Also, I'm sure terrible OF defense helped balloon those old ERAs while the more advanced metrics try to weed out that statistical noise. In short, FIP/xFIP are not a good indication of the relative quality of the 2014 vs. 2015 rotations. The 2015 rotation is considerably better, both because the Twins have better pitchers and because they have better defenders behind those pitchers. Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson had a lower FIP than ERA in 2014 while everybody else had a higher ERA than FIP (anywhere between a few percentage points to 2+ runs). Advanced metrics can't seem to accurately track pitchers who are so terrible that "luck percentages" don't seem to apply because they don't give up an expected level of medium/hard hit contact. Long story short, 85mph pitching machines seem to "break" advanced metrics and the 2014 Twins had the majority of their starts come from 85mph pitching machines.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Sorry guys, there was a hiccup that set me back a few minutes this morning so the tickets didn't go live until a little after 8am.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    So, yeah. Tyler Duffey.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    9/19. You going to be in town? I'll buy you a beer... and then probably ban you because it's funny.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    That's why I said "likely phoning it in". Cleveland is on a nice run but I suspect they'll be out of it in a week or two with a few more losses. Whether they decide to start playing prospects more is up in the air.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I won't frown upon a sweep. It certainly makes that Astros/Royals road trip a bit easier. Also, the Rangers are losing badly tonight so there's that.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, 2/3 at home and splits on the road will probably keep it close. People fret about the Twins' schedule but I see a September with only a moderate challenge: 3 vs. ChiSox: yeah, okay, whatever 3 @ Astros: ooh, tough 3 @ Royals: again, tough 3 @ ChiSox: yeah, again, whatever 3 vs. Tigers: phoning it in 4 vs. Angels: could go either way 3 vs. Indians: likely phoning it in 3 @ Tigers: phoning it in 4 @ Indians: even more likely phoning it in 3 vs. Royals: almost surely phoning it in
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    A great point, one that doesn't get enough consideration. Why call up Pinto as a third catcher when you can call up an actual third catcher and pinch-hit with guys like Vargas, Arcia, Kepler, or Walker? Not that I think most of those guys will get the call but if you have an extended September bench, who is playing as "third catcher" is going to be less important than the no-position mashers you have riding the pine.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Let's not go crazy here. The Twins' pen is acceptable.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I've really wanted to see Nunez get a shot at third for awhile now. *rubs eyes* Oh, wait. No, that's not true at all. Sano. I've really wanted to see Sano get a shot a third for awhile now.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Turner is 23 years old with a .615 OPS in Chatanooga. He doesn't need to be on the 40 man for what, two more years? There are reasons to be aggressive with promotions... being reckless with them is something else entirely. Turner has no business being in a Twins uniform right now, if only for 40 man concerns (on top of his performance with the stick). If you want to add to the 40 man, you do it with guys like Berrios, who are going to force their way to the majors next season anyway.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    He has been in the majors for three seasons but only 800 PAs. That's what really matters. The last 180 of those PAs have been pretty good. And while his RHP split is a pretty bad .634, he had ~90 PAs (roughly 35% of his 2015 PAs) with a sub-.550 OPS against RHP. That means he's been somewhere around .700 since the call-up. Still not great but somewhat promising going forward. But I agree with your general point that Hicks isn't the best fit for the Twins right now. Given their other options, Hicks in a corner spot isn't the best use of his talents.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Health concerns are completely separate from this argument about service time. No matter the situation in Minnesota, if Ryan feels Berrios is hitting a wall, he has to shut him down. Period. At some point, the Twins need to stop worrying about 2022 at the expense of 2015. Like I said, if it's April 1st, yeah, you play Jose in Rochester for 3-4 weeks and then call him up to grab that extra service year because "why not?" But every. win. matters. right now. If Berrios can fill a role and help the Twins squeak out even one more win without bringing up any long-term concerns about his arm, you make that move because one win could be the difference between making the playoffs or missing by a game. And, again, the Twins can send Berrios back down if he struggles in 2016, getting back that extra service year. The vast majority of Twins prospects bounce back and forth a few times before sticking in Minnesota. I hope Berrios isn't one of those guys but I wouldn't bet against it. On top of all that, don't you think Berrios will benefit from learning what it feels like to compete against the best talent in the world in crucial situations during a playoff run?
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. If it's April 1st and you have 162 games in front of you and a competent rotation without Berrios, you consider keeping him down for all of 20 days so you can grab an extra year of service time. If it's September 1st and you're in the middle of a playoff race, you say "to hell with that service year" and assemble the best possible roster in Minnesota. If Berrios struggles, there's nothing preventing the Twins from sending him down in 2016 and getting that extra service year.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'm all in favor of letting Berrios pitch, I think asking him to start games deep into October is a bit much.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    It sounds like they're taking a "feel" approach with Berrios, which I believe is the right call. The Twins have never mentioned an innings limit for Jose, at least not as far as I know.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/636884642252124160
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The Red Wings are not going to make the playoffs.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    The Astros are good but not without flaws. Still, a tough matchup. The first Royals series is troublesome. It's early enough in September where the Twins will be facing a Royals team focused on maintaining the best record in the American League. The second series, maybe not so much. There's a better than 50/50 chance the Royals will phone in that series.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    If Berrios doesn't get the call this season, is he a unanimous top ten prospect on major lists? I'm leaning toward "yes". It's almost impossible to doubt the kid at this point.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Hicks had a .217 BABIP in August. That's really all you need to know about Hicks' August. He had just 16 hits but six of those hits were doubles or homers. He only drew one walk but given Aaron's history, that doesn't concern me a whole lot. He's going to be a somewhat streaky player, I think... At least until he's able to show a little consistency from the left side of the plate. By comparison, Hicks was truly awful in 2013 and 2014 (as we all know). Here were his BABIP stats: 2013: .241 2014: .300 Even during his disastrous 2013 season, his BABIP was .025 higher than it was in August.
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