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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Nor do I. On that we agree. The only rational explanation I can devise is that Trevor is in a dead arm phase and they're not telling anyone. Every other rationalization is bizarre.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    There are a few flaws in this argument. 1. I never said May would be in the rotation at the ASB. 2. I've gone on the record saying I wouldn't have taken him out of the rotation. I merely said May in the pen might not be a disaster if he's used in high leverage situations. 3. Who said the Twins FO isn't capable of mistakes? I've been hammering them over the pen and SS for months now.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler isn't great but he looks like he's going to profile as a solid MLB regular. That has value. He's 22 years old and tearing up AA.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I was thinking more like Gibson + Kepler but YMMV.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I think everyone here can agree on one thing: Danny Santana should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I have my doubts about this team as a whole. But I know that making the staff considerably worse isn't going to improve their chances in October.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be shocked if Trevor May isn't in the rotation by the end of August.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Where did I say anything about an ace? One thing I do know is that you're not going to find a "mythical ace" or anything resembling such a thing by trading your best starting pitcher. And how do the Twins get that "mythical ace" when they've committed $20m to Tulo and lost their best starter? Your argument is illogical.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know about anyone else in this thread but I was working under the assumption that Gibson straight up for Tulo wasn't even a consideration. My assumption was Gibson + stuff for Tulo.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. I don't see the point of acquiring a player who costs a lot and has reached his peak at the expense of a cheap player who appears to be reaching his peak. I'm not against acquiring Tulo but I have my doubts... But not if it costs the Twins a valuable player who is contributing to the 2015 squad. I don't see how people envision a Twins team that wins this October without Gibson starting the first or second game of the series.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I mean "interchangeable" as in "one of those players should be removed for the other". A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable. Having Pelfrey or Milone in a playoff rotation is questionable. Having both of them in a playoff rotation is begging for a quick exit.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair but Gibson has steadily become a better player since he entered the rotation in 2013. The recent stats are more indicative of his ability than older stats. He even showed this ability in 2014 but lacked consistency. His 2014 season was marked with insane fluctuations. Going from memory, he started about 30 games. In ~15 of those games, he allowed 2 ER or less. In ~10 of those games, he allowed 5 ER or more. In 75% of his starts, he was either stellar or horrible. That's a player you mark for improvement going forward. You don't ignore the career stats but you take them with a grain of salt.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    That's what happens when the team continues to run out a -1.7 WAR player when they have a better option riding the pine.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that's not the issue. Gibson and May aren't interchangeable. Milone/Pelfrey and May are interchangeable.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    No, he's not. I like Phil Hughes - I like him a lot - but he's getting by on smoke and mirrors lately. His K% is a full 7.5% lower than his 2014 mark and is 3% lower than Kyle Gibson's, yet Gibson is the "mediocre starter" according to some around here.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought the point was to win in 2015. Are we writing off 2015? The way I see it, the Twins have almost no shot at winning in October with a rotation led by Trevor May and a bullpen with more holes than the Edmund Fitzgerald. The bullpen can be shored up a bit but it'd need to rival KC's pen to overcome that rotation. And that simply isn't going to happen.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    He's been King people for over two months now. His season line is tainted by really bad peripherals in April. He hasn't been that pitcher for 2 1/2 months.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Indeed. I don't even think Tulo is the best player on the team in 2015. Dozier gets my nod for that title.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    They have six starters, yes. One of them can't pitch in the playoffs and two shouldn't pitch in the playoffs. Remove Gibson and the team is down to just two adequate playoff starters.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    To be clear, I'm not super high on Gibson. I like him but he's not outstanding. My opposition to trading him is that it directly undermines the "win now" aspect of acquiring Tulo and I don't see how that's even debatable.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    There's almost a zero chance the Twins win in the playoffs without Gibson. That should be enough of an argument for anyone. He is their only above average pitcher. Couple that with the Twins' shoddy pen and you can write "one and done" in pen. Tulo will likely remain a good player for a few more years but he's not the player he was five years ago. He faces injury issues on almost a yearly basis. If you're trying to win now by acquiring Tulo, giving up Gibson is in direct opposition to that goal. Teams improve by giving up future talent, not today's talent.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That doesn't make sense any way you look at it. Escobar has been an average shortstop (or better) whenever he gets the chance to start. Kurt Suzuki has been below replacement level for most of the season and is 31 years old. Even if Escobar fails, the Twins have other players to fill in at short. I'm not much of a fan of any of them, but they exist. The Twins options at catcher are: Kurt Suzuki.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the two players have a pretty good shot of being of nearly equal value from 2015-2018. Either way, I expect it to be relatively close. Except one of them costs $15m and the other costs $100m. Whether the posters here want to buy into reality or not, money matters. The Twins aren't going to post a $200m payroll in 2017. Acquiring Tulo, while not a terrible idea under the right circumstances, will seriously hamstring Ryan in acquiring future players. That counts for something. If one wants to build a winning team, one has to acquire better players, not acquire better players while giving up better players.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not a direct comparison, WAR was used to point out just how terrible an idea that is because Kyle Gibson has been really, really good and continues to improve as the season progresses. Is Kyle Gibson more valuable than Tulowitzki in 2015? I'm far from certain that's the case. Is Kyle Gibson at $500k more valuable than Tulowitski at $20m? Hell yes. That's not even in doubt. To give up a good cost-controlled player who is contributing today for an older expensive player who may or may not contribute more wins to the team is the kind of deal that gets general managers fired, and for good reason. It's idiotic. And then you get into the fact that Tulowitzki has a pretty extensive injury history and has crossed the age of 30. There isn't a situation where you can paint that trade idea in a positive light. Tulo is a "win now" move. It's damned near impossible to "win now" when you give up a younger, possibly equal value, player in trade for that older, expensive player. Gibson could actually get better from 2016-2018. It's unlikely but it's possible and it costs the Twins very little to find out. On the other hand, you can pretty much bank on Tulowitzki diminishing in some capacity from 2016-2018. It has already started to happen. His fielding metrics are no longer impressive and haven't been for several years.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    if Escobar continues starting, shortstop will no longer be a negative WAR position. Catcher will likely remain a negative WAR position until Suzuki is replaced. Which position is a higher priority again?
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