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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Molitor put Joe in the second spot and tell him "just get on damned base and let the guys behind you take care of the rest". That's what Joe is best at, after all.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect this is the case. If you pull out those points individually, his struggles make little sense. When healthy, Joe was too damned good a hitter to get beat so badly by something as simple as a shift. Part of being a MLB player - especially a 40 WAR player in less than a decade of play - involves constantly adjusting and beating the opposing pitcher and defense. They do one thing, Joe adjusts and continues hitting. Increasingly by the day, it seems that Joe might have suffered longterm, possibly permanent, effects to his ability after the 2011 injury and the concussion. Couple that with aging and defenses more aggressively shifting against him and we end up where we are today. Where he could have adjusted in previous years has turned into a situation where he's unable to adjust to what pitchers and defense are doing to him. It started with the strikeouts after his 2011 injury and became increasingly problematic after the concussion.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough. I was just winging the math on that one. But even at .770, Joe is a productive first baseman. In 2014, that would have been good for something around a 115-ish OPS+. Definitely not where you want a $23m player to be performance-wise but not embarrassing, either.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, you're completely disregarding that Joe's slugging when down a full .105 (!) from 2013 to 2014. His BABIP in 2013 was unsustainable but that wasn't the real reason his productivity nose-dived after the concussion. It was the fact that he stopped hitting for any kind of power. The BABIP was simply regression toward his personal norm. It should have contributed to a slight dip in overall numbers but not the "fall off a cliff" drop we saw in production. If Joe slugs .450 instead of .370 last season (a relatively conservative number based on his 2010-2013 numbers), his OPS is still over .800 for the season and we barely even notice his slight overall decline.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I don't think that's the case. He was very productive in 2010, 2012, and 2013. Hell, he was even somewhat productive in 2014. When compared to the likes of Barry Zito and Ryan Howard (amongst many others), Joe is a veritable productivity machine despite all the issues he's having later in the contract. Mauer has posted an rWAR of 18.8 from 2010 through today.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I hadn't heard this. Yikes. I'll never forget the cheap shot on Jim by Charles Martin. Maybe the most egregrious and damaging penalty I've ever seen in the NFL.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I just feel gutshot every time I think about Joe Mauer. It's such an unfortunate - and completely unexpected - decline that I still struggle to comprehend it. By all accounts, Mauer should have declined gracefully. Maybe not on the level of Molitor but his excellent bat control and discipline should have made him a productive player well into this 30s. Now I don't know what the Twins can do with him.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't get the starting thing at all. What a weird tryout. But as a reliever, a healthy Tim Stauffer should have been serviceable. He missed bats and had a manageable walk rate for the Padres. His peripherals indicated a very different pitcher than what we saw this season and the only thing I see that's different is that he has lost considerable velocity this season. He's probably injured. On paper, Tim Stauffer makes a hell of a lot more sense than Blaine Boyer, yet we've seen the exact opposite results. Baseball is a weird game.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that the Twins should have been looking more at the younger relievers in their system and didn't need both Duensing and Stauffer (although Brian had good splits against lefties last year, something he hasn't replicated this season). My earlier point is that they didn't keep Stauffer around for that long. Tim struggled badly and was put on the DL. I'm sure the Twins were aware of his drop in velocity and decided to give him one more shot after the DL. The velocity didn't return and they cut him after just 5.1 additional innings. Would I have cut him a bit faster? Yeah, almost certainly but the guy only made 13 appearances with the Twins. They didn't dawdle excessively on making a decision here.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    1. I wasn't in love with the Stauffer signing for a few reasons but he was a Jared Burton-type risk - albeit for too much money - that didn't pan out. Eh, whatever. I thought the Twins had enough youngster to patch together a pen but I understand the desire to pick up at least one veteran guy in case things go horribly wrong. 2. The guy pitched all of 15 innings before getting the axe. The way some are acting around here, you'd think he pitched 50 innings of high leverage baseball before getting cut. 3. Stauffer lost 2 mph on his pitches between 2014 and 2015. That impacted his ability more than anything else; certainly more than the move from the NL and PETCO and is almost certainly the reason his Swinging Strike % dropped from roughly 10% over 2012-2014 to a meager 4% in 2015. 4. Stauffer went from a 20%+ K% from 2013-2014 to just 8% in 2015. He was a reliever from 2013-2014 so it's not as if he got to rack up Ks against pitchers in the NL. Simply put, the guy is not the pitcher the Twins thought they were getting and that's not because the Twins were blind to Stauffer's PETCO stats. Something is wrong with the guy.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    It might be a problem, it might not. Nolasco is gone after 2017, Santana after 2018. Unless Jay is a phenom, he won't even be knocking on the door as a starter until 2018. It's so hard to project pitchers. Half or better of those guys might flame out, unfortunately... Or at least see a significant setback like TJ that pushes their timetable back 18 months.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    If they drafted for need, it's a mistake. Thankfully, it's pretty well known that the Twins take a BPA draft strategy so it's likely they went BPA and it happened to be a lefty starter. The earliest this guy will reach Minnesota is late 2017 and even that's a reach because he needs to be stretched out as a full time starter. Teams shouldn't draft for "need" 24+ months out. That's just stupid.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    While I have no real opinion on this pick, drafting for need is the biggest mistake one can make in baseball.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be hesitant to make any trades that give up players in the organization's top 15 this season. I don't think the Twins have the horses to compete through the dog days. I'd rather see them start aggressively infusing the lineup with potential breakout players like Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc. Maybe Meyer out of the pen in July. Those moves could pay as big, if not bigger, dividends through the rest of the season. But yeah, no trades that deplete the on-field product of the Minnesota Twins, either. Does anyone really care if Mike Pelfrey walks away after the season is complete? I sure don't. And if you don't care whether Pelfrey walks, why on earth would you trade him while the team is contending? Enjoy the winning, don't rock the boat. Save some of those valuable trade chits for 2016 and beyond. Just let it ride this season and see what happens.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Looks like we're officially into promotion season. I can't imagine that Berrios will remain in Chattanooga much longer.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    This. Times 1000. If the Twins are winning in July, the only "value" they should care about is what they're getting from the players on the field. Worry about what happens in November in November.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Teams shouldn't worry about selling high when they're leading the division, particularly when it's one of the guys who helped them get there. If it helps make the team better today, that's a different story... But trading Mike Pelfrey probably isn't going to help make the team better in 2015.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    So the Twins, while leading the division, should trade their second best starter because he has value right now? Sounds like a good way to intentionally shot yourself in the foot.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not going to like seeing May get demoted, either... But as long as Pelfrey is sporting a top ten ERA, you have to put him on the mound every fifth day. This season - as surprising as this is to say - is turning into a time when the Twins have to think more about winning every game possible and less about prospect development (thankfully, those two things will overlap in many situations so it's not an issue most of the time).
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope. Nope. Nope. What makes you so bloody confident in Tommy Milone and his 86 mph fastball? Mike Pelfrey is helping the first place Minnesota Twins win baseball games. Full stop. This isn't a video game. These are real, live human beings and you ride the hot hand while it's working.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Trading the second best starter when the team has the best record in the American League would be incredibly foolish. Mike Pelfrey is helping win baseball games. That is literally the *only* thing that matters right now when it comes to the subject of Mike Pelfrey. I agree the bullpen needs an overhaul but the rotation should only be changed if it is a clear and obvious upgrade. Milone might not be better than Nolasco, much less Pelfrey.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That clarification makes way more sense. Yeah, his chances of being a plus MLB starter seem to dip slightly by the month but if the guy can stay healthy and keeps his high 90s fastball, he should be a nice bullpen piece at the very least. As I said earlier, his strikeout rate isn't nearly as concerning as his injury issues. The guy has been throwing a limited pitch selection, is on both a strict pitch count and innings limit, and hasn't come close to really unleashing on opposing hitters yet. If a guy isn't throwing his plus offspeed stuff - which Stewart absolutely has - his K rate is going to suffer badly and shouldn't be the determining factor of whether he's "succeeding" or not. Kohl is still very much in a developmental period and that isn't shown in the box score. While I'm pretty dedicated to sabremetrics myself, it seems that some people forget that not everything is shown in a box score, particularly MiLB where we don't even have access to things like pitch selection and speed. As long as scouts and analysts stay bullish on Stewart, I'm going to temper my concern. By virtually every account you read anywhere by people who have watched the kid pitch, he has the stuff to miss bats. If he gets through a full season without restrictions and continues to strike out four per nine, then it's probably time to start raising the big red flags.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm also most concerned about his health, particularly his rollercoaster fastball velocity. The guy is on a strict pitch count and innings limit. I won't get too worked up about his results until those limits are removed and we get to see what Kohl can really do, if and when he gets healthy.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    5%? Oy. A 20 year old pitcher who, when healthy, can touch the high 90s has a 5% chance of success in the majors? And we're basing this on his inability to miss bats for a partial development season where he was pitch-restricted and 38 innings of the following season? Seasons when he has struggled with injury concerns? This thread has taken a turn straight into CrazyTown. Stewart might be a permanent injury concern. He might never strike guys out. Those are real possibilities but I'll let the guy reach, oh I don't know... maybe 200 career innings before writing him off as an automatic bust or giving him a one out of twenty chance of success in major league baseball, especially when you read reports from people who have watched him pitch say things like "effortless delivery", "reaches high 90s", and "elite prospect".
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm well aware of the hurdles facing Stewart and his K rate. It's possible, maybe even likely, that he doesn't overcome those hurdles and fails to be an impact at the major league level. But people are really overreacting in this thread. Stewart isn't a typical prospect. - He's 20 years old in A+ ball and has all of 38 innings under his belt. - He never dedicated himself fully to pitching until he was drafted in 2013 and didn't really get a taste of professional baseball until 2014 (uh... that's last season). - The Twins had him on a limited pitch selection most, if not all, of last season. - I have no idea what pitches he's throwing right now and what frequency he's throwing them. - In July of last season, BA had Stewart's fastball touching 98 mph. - He made just seven starts in the second half of 2014. He has basically pitched one full MiLB season at this point. Stewart is still in the developmental phase of his professional career. He could be as many as five years away from Minnesota and still break into the league as a 25 year old (aka. the debut age of Trevor May and Kyle Gibson). He's pitching against hitters who are a huge step up from anything he's seen in the past. If Stewart is struggling in July and August of this year, then my concern will elevate quite a bit... But right now? No. It's way too early to be so knee-jerk reactionary about 38 innings. MiLB is so much more than looking at box scores. The scouts who have actually watched Stewart pitch are still very high on the kid. Does everyone down on Stewart think those scouts and analysts don't look at box scores? This is what John Sickels had to say in November of last year about Stewart:
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