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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    That's dealing with batting average. I'm looking at OPS for obvious reasons. I spot-checked ten random years going back to the mid-70s and every year, the AL had a higher OPS with RISP than it did with the bases empty. Interestingly, the gap was small in the 3-4 years I checked from 1975-1990 and has expanded quite a bit since that time, growing up to a .040 OPS difference in a few recent seasons.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, both leagues have better numbers with RISP (by a healthy margin) so one would assume that most players also have better numbers with RISP. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2015
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    The numbers bear this out. Percentage of strikes thrown to Joe Mauer in his career: Bases Empty: 62% Men on Base: 56% RISP: 54% Joe sees a lot fewer strikes when runners are on base.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know what to think about Mauer right now. He seems like a player in flux, a guy who changes slightly on a weekly basis. It feels like he's trying to change his approach and take advantage of defenses shifting against him to middling effect. He's pulling the ball more but the ball is rarely hit with authority. For example, one of his triples felt like a rope to right center... That landed about 30 feet beyond the infield dirt. If not for the shift, that's possibly a single, maybe a double at best. It was hit well but not authoritatively. I hold out hope that Joe is still working on his swing, trying to make contact before he tries to advance and make authoritative contact... But I don't know if that hope is grounded in reality.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Completely misunderstood your post. Whoops.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I give Bruno quite a bit of credit for Dozier because the difference was night and day. One day, he was a subpar hitter. The next, he was an above average hitter. The difference was amazing. But you're right that ultimately, it comes down to the player acknowledging that changes need to be made and making those adjustments. Dozier not only listened to Bruno about his swing but he also applied a lot of hard work to defense and baserunning, ultimately becoming the most well-rounded player on the team because of it.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    You can count me in the camp of "bullish on Dozier" and "bearish on Plouffe". I didn't see Plouffe coming at all.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, in that regard, they're extremely similar. It's an interesting development because even some of the front office's staunchest defenders had to question their player development system a few years ago when things got really bad. Now that some unlikely players have emerged as very good players, it appears that maybe things weren't as bad as they seemed, we just needed to give the organization more time to get everyone pointed in the same direction. Another good reminder that baseball moves at a glacial pace compared to other sports.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. The career trajectories of those two players are interesting, doubly so that they doing it at the same time on the same team. Though Dozier is slightly different in that he had a definable "light switch" moment when Bruno changed his swing.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    To present another option, it's possible the Twins saw the incredible work ethic from Trevor all the way through the system and felt he could become a quality SS in time. Hell, given what Trevor has done at third, I'm not sure he still couldn't become a quality SS if he applied himself to it. I can't remember the last time I saw a player get just a little bit better every year I watched him play the way Trevor has over the past four seasons. It's fascinating how Plouffe has so sneakily gone from "bad" to "meh" to "good" to "this guy is possible an All-Star" right under our noses.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I meant to respond to this earlier. I can't lay too much fault on the Twins for keeping Plouffe at short. He's relatively athletic and his bat didn't project to anything but shortstop until he went bonkers as a 25 year old in AAA. Maybe the Twins should have played him more at third in hopes he'd become a utility guy but I can't fault them for not making a wholesale change to third when the guy's yearly OPS hovered around .720-.730 in the minors. That simply isn't a bat that will carry at third in Major League Baseball. It appeared that if the Twins were to get value from Trevor, it would have to be at short because he couldn't hit worth a damn. It's easy to forget now but Plouffe was basically written off as a bust just a few years ago. It's a good reminder that not all baseball players develop at the same pace. Trevor seems to be a hard worker, a smart guy, and a good listener because he has completely turned his career around, one small step at a time. It's kinda amazing when you look at the progression of Plouffe as a baseball player.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    To an extent, possibly... But this isn't a good example. We have reports of people who actually watch baseball games and they pretty much unanimously agree that Plouffe is a good defender nowadays. You'll get disagreement on just *how* good he is in 2015 but most people have agreed on the general sentiment that he's at least average with the leather. And then you have Tom Barnard, a guy whose job is to be as hyperbolic and aggravating as possible. The guy with the loudest idiotic opinion gets the most listeners because... Well, because that's our modern society, I guess. Sigh. That's a rant for another day.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    The 50 people who say Plouffe has become a pretty good defender to every one Tom Barnard. I see your overall point about the eye test but this isn't a good example of it. One guy has gone off the rails and is showing obvious bias while the rest of the world has pretty much agreed on the exact opposite. Not all opinions carry equal weight, particularly when the results are this lop-sided. Not to get all political but it's kinda like climate change. On one hand, you have virtually every climate scientist and NASA saying one thing while a politician who received a law degree (or less) says the opposite. At that point, you basically ignore the politician because it's obvious he's either insane, bought out by special interests, or both. If anything, he has done you a favor by showing a complete inability to parse information reasonably with as little bias as possible. He has indirectly told you that he is not worth listening to anymore.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. The Twins rotation won't show legitimate upside until Berrios arrives and (hopefully) Meyer sorts out his command issues in Rochester.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    You and the rest of the United States who prefer their metro areas to be populated and bear-free and their rivers not aflame.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It's going to take a lot more than five starts to convince another team to take on Ricky's contract. In all likelihood, he either pitches better or the Twins are forced to eat the contract as soon as July. At least one of Berrios and Meyer is going to need MLB rotation time this season, maybe both.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    As I said in a later post, I'm less concerned about Hicks' numbers than I am his approach and mental state. Those are basically impossible to judge from an outside perspective so... *shrugs*
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. If the coaches think he is ready, then I'll defer to their judgment... But I think calling up Hicks based purely on numbers is a mistake. That kid was a complete mess as recently as last season. If the coaches like his new swing and think his head is in a good spot, then call him up... But we've been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" dog and pony show too many times already. A little prudence isn't going to hurt in the long run.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    The league average OPS is around .710 this season (going from memory here, give or take .010 or .020 points). If Aaron Hicks plays stellar corner OF defense, can OPS over .700, and the Twins get power from the rest of their lineup, then Hicks would be just fine in a corner spot.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    It depends on Hicks' production. If he's still doing this in two weeks, I consider a promotion. If he's doing this in mid-June and hasn't received a promotion, then I'll start to wonder what the hell the Twins are thinking. So, to put a number on it, 2-4 weeks if Hicks continues raking in Rochester. Hicks has been very good for three weeks. Given Hicks' recent history, three weeks isn't enough for me and I don't think it's enough to prove anything about Hicks' mental state, though I will defer to the coaching staff there for obvious reasons.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Going into the season, I would have been very happy with third place. This is a development year. If they manage to win during that development, great... But I'm interested in the Twins doing all they can to build sustained success, even if it costs a few wins in 2015.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I see the Twins being forced to move one or more of Vargas, Pinto, or Arcia in the next year or two. The Twins have three players who profile best as DH and a slew of outfield prospects that are better defensively. Something has to give.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Why do some think that Hicks either plays center or is a fourth outfielder? He could play a corner position if he can OPS over .700. A defensive outfield of Rosario, Buxton, and Hicks would be terrifying to opposing batters.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't need to see half a season out of Hicks to believe he's a changed man but 19 games hasn't convinced me of anything. I'm glad he's doing well but he needs to show he can hit for a longer period of time and more importantly, coaches need to weigh in on Hicks' mental game before a promotion is handed out. I'm less worried about his ability than I am the grey matter betwixt his ears. That could be today, it could be June. I don't know.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Really nice piece, Brandon. Hard not to like the things I'm seeing and hearing from Trevor since the season started. The guy looks ready for MLB.
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