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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If Buxton is hurt again, thems the breaks. Notice one thing about my post: I didn't point out two of the three biggest issues on the 2015 Twins - shortstop and catcher. This team has three major glaring flaws - bullpen, catcher, shortstop. It has question marks in centerfield, the rotation (as far as the playoffs are concerned), and I'm putting the bullpen here again because it's that bad. Where the team is set with a player, they offer middling production from most of the field: first base, left field, center field, right field, DH. This isn't a team poised to get hot and thrive in a playoff environment. It's a team poised to scuffle along and barely miss or make the playoffs. If Ryan were to somehow transform this team into a solid contender, he'd have to trade half the farm and swing 4-5 deals just to get the Twins to the level of the Angels or Royals. This isn't the 2010 Twins that were an incredibly solid team from front to back. It's not a surprising but sustainable team like the 2002 team. Hell, it's not even the rounded but flawed 2006 squad. The 2015 Twins are closer to the 2001 Twins than any other team in recent memory and that's not a team you bank on down the stretch. You shore up minor issues without giving up much, hope a few things break right, and don't get too upset if they don't.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    For me, it'd require a few things: - Buxton, Sano are healthy and contributing - Berrios or another pitcher looked like a decent or good playoff starter - The bullpen wasn't laughably bad The third issue is somewhat fixable (but not entirely, the issue is too widespread), the second issue isn't, and the first is entirely up in the air. I keep saying it but I'll say it one more time: this team is simply not that good. They banked +11 wins largely through luck and have spent the past eight weeks scratching to play just .500 ball (and they've missed the mark by 3-4 games). I don't expect the Twins to be a .500 team after the break. They'll probably be close but four months of .500 ball does not a world champion make.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Groan. That statement is a joke but feels disturbingly accurate.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    All of this, though I'm not particularly in love with Kepler. I think he's making a good case to sell in an org with too many outfielders. I'm all for improvement to keep the door open but this team isn't particularly good, IMO, and it can't really be fixed in a single deadline. Try to stay relevant but don't try to force the issue by trying to turn this team into something it isn't (dominant).
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but he's not unlike Mauer in that his value drops like a stone the moment he can no longer play a premium position. Not to mention that it creates positional issues on a team that already has Joe Mauer on it. And that's a real risk for a shortstop signed through his age 35 season. His bat should carry to another position but it won't carry particularly well unless he stays over .800 and I'm not sure that's a reasonable expectation.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really have any concerns about his bat. I think he's a .820, maybe .840 hitter in Target Field. That's pretty awesome. My concerns revolve around defense and health. His health is an immediate concern but the defense should be fine for a year or two. My major concerns revolve around 2017-2018. All one has to do is look at Joe Mauer or Albert Pujols previous to this year's Renaissance to see how badly things can go after 30.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know when the decline phase will come either but it significantly raises the risk of the deal. If 2015 Tulo is the Tulo going forward, he needs to hit better than Brian Dozier to sustain the greatness he had in years past. He isn't hitting that level offensively this season, either... He has the talent to do it but each question mark raises the risk of the deal.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Good catch on the partial seasons. I forgot to equate for that. But either way, he's not the defensive player he was earlier in his career. It's likely he will become below average defensively relatively soon.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that pretty much sums it up.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Nor do I. On that we agree. The only rational explanation I can devise is that Trevor is in a dead arm phase and they're not telling anyone. Every other rationalization is bizarre.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    There are a few flaws in this argument. 1. I never said May would be in the rotation at the ASB. 2. I've gone on the record saying I wouldn't have taken him out of the rotation. I merely said May in the pen might not be a disaster if he's used in high leverage situations. 3. Who said the Twins FO isn't capable of mistakes? I've been hammering them over the pen and SS for months now.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler isn't great but he looks like he's going to profile as a solid MLB regular. That has value. He's 22 years old and tearing up AA.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I was thinking more like Gibson + Kepler but YMMV.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I think everyone here can agree on one thing: Danny Santana should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I have my doubts about this team as a whole. But I know that making the staff considerably worse isn't going to improve their chances in October.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be shocked if Trevor May isn't in the rotation by the end of August.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Where did I say anything about an ace? One thing I do know is that you're not going to find a "mythical ace" or anything resembling such a thing by trading your best starting pitcher. And how do the Twins get that "mythical ace" when they've committed $20m to Tulo and lost their best starter? Your argument is illogical.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know about anyone else in this thread but I was working under the assumption that Gibson straight up for Tulo wasn't even a consideration. My assumption was Gibson + stuff for Tulo.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. I don't see the point of acquiring a player who costs a lot and has reached his peak at the expense of a cheap player who appears to be reaching his peak. I'm not against acquiring Tulo but I have my doubts... But not if it costs the Twins a valuable player who is contributing to the 2015 squad. I don't see how people envision a Twins team that wins this October without Gibson starting the first or second game of the series.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I mean "interchangeable" as in "one of those players should be removed for the other". A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable. Having Pelfrey or Milone in a playoff rotation is questionable. Having both of them in a playoff rotation is begging for a quick exit.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair but Gibson has steadily become a better player since he entered the rotation in 2013. The recent stats are more indicative of his ability than older stats. He even showed this ability in 2014 but lacked consistency. His 2014 season was marked with insane fluctuations. Going from memory, he started about 30 games. In ~15 of those games, he allowed 2 ER or less. In ~10 of those games, he allowed 5 ER or more. In 75% of his starts, he was either stellar or horrible. That's a player you mark for improvement going forward. You don't ignore the career stats but you take them with a grain of salt.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That's what happens when the team continues to run out a -1.7 WAR player when they have a better option riding the pine.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that's not the issue. Gibson and May aren't interchangeable. Milone/Pelfrey and May are interchangeable.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    No, he's not. I like Phil Hughes - I like him a lot - but he's getting by on smoke and mirrors lately. His K% is a full 7.5% lower than his 2014 mark and is 3% lower than Kyle Gibson's, yet Gibson is the "mediocre starter" according to some around here.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought the point was to win in 2015. Are we writing off 2015? The way I see it, the Twins have almost no shot at winning in October with a rotation led by Trevor May and a bullpen with more holes than the Edmund Fitzgerald. The bullpen can be shored up a bit but it'd need to rival KC's pen to overcome that rotation. And that simply isn't going to happen.
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