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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm well aware of the hurdles facing Stewart and his K rate. It's possible, maybe even likely, that he doesn't overcome those hurdles and fails to be an impact at the major league level. But people are really overreacting in this thread. Stewart isn't a typical prospect. - He's 20 years old in A+ ball and has all of 38 innings under his belt. - He never dedicated himself fully to pitching until he was drafted in 2013 and didn't really get a taste of professional baseball until 2014 (uh... that's last season). - The Twins had him on a limited pitch selection most, if not all, of last season. - I have no idea what pitches he's throwing right now and what frequency he's throwing them. - In July of last season, BA had Stewart's fastball touching 98 mph. - He made just seven starts in the second half of 2014. He has basically pitched one full MiLB season at this point. Stewart is still in the developmental phase of his professional career. He could be as many as five years away from Minnesota and still break into the league as a 25 year old (aka. the debut age of Trevor May and Kyle Gibson). He's pitching against hitters who are a huge step up from anything he's seen in the past. If Stewart is struggling in July and August of this year, then my concern will elevate quite a bit... But right now? No. It's way too early to be so knee-jerk reactionary about 38 innings. MiLB is so much more than looking at box scores. The scouts who have actually watched Stewart pitch are still very high on the kid. Does everyone down on Stewart think those scouts and analysts don't look at box scores? This is what John Sickels had to say in November of last year about Stewart:
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    38 innings at a higher level of competition than he's ever pitched before. The guy is pitching in Ft Myers and isn't old enough to drink legally. "Mildly concerned" is the correct position to take here.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh... Okay. I guess almost every baseball analyst on the planet must be completely wrong about Kohl. His K rate is mildly concerning but the guy has loads of talent.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    If he played half his games in a stadium like PETCO, it'd be interesting to see him try. Target Field is a tougher place to do it. Plus, Byron is a righty. I don't know if he'll have the opposite field power or swing to be a triples machine in the majors.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Glen Perkins is not overrated. Since 2011, here are his stats: IP: 279.1 SO: 307 BB: 66 (!) H: 239 HR: 24 (!) Those are pretty close to video game numbers.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    If you plan to use him as trade bait, he'll gain the most value by staying in Rochester, starting games. 10-15 innings of MLB mop-up work isn't going to help gain value.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you can expect #1 to happen soon, #3-5 to happen relatively soon (mid to late June is my guess), and keep hoping on #6. As for #2, I'd love to see Milone but who do you kick out of the rotation to do it? Trevor May? No thanks. And putting Milone in a long relief role in Minnesota seems like a giant waste to me. I'm hoping that in June or July, Ryan is able to move Milone in trade for a piece that will help the Twins in 2015, provided everybody is still healthy and the Twins are contending.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh. While kinda funny, that's not really fair to say about Berrios. The Twins have been quite aggressive in promoting him, so much that they even gave him a Rochester start last season as a 20 year old. It's obvious that the organization is a big fan of the kid. I'm sure the Twins are planning to promote him as soon as they begin their mid-season wave of promotions.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    It's becoming quite apparent that Berrios has little left to learn in Chattanooga. The Twins need to consider a promotion and consider it soon.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins can recoup value from Pelfrey by letting him help them win ball games in 2015.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Bonds had a WAR of 162. I just can't even.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Perkins is a gimme choice. I'd also probably nominate Dozier because he's been good for quite some time and deserves his first nod. Plouffe would make it many years but this year, it seems like a crowded field at third (something not often said in the history of baseball).
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Vlad Guerrero in his prime. Dude was a cartoon character with that swing.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. I've been meaning to look that up and never got around to it. The starters seem like they're missing a lot more bats in recent weeks, which is surely making their FIP and xFIP look better.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    They're actually middle of the pack - 15th in baseball - in scoring first inning runs this season. But they're first in second inning runs and second in third inning runs.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Too early to say. If Pelfrey drifts back to league average, it'll be easier to replace him and ease the rotation logjam that's coming. If he's still pitching lights-out in July and the Twins are still in the hunt, I think there's almost a zero percent chance he'll be traded. Remember that Santana cannot pitch in the playoffs this season. If the Twins look like a playoff contender, that will almost certainly factor into Ryan's decision.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Going with your closer for a 4+ out save is a lot less necessary when you have nearly the same quality pitcher getting guys out in the eighth inning.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not *entirely* true. Molitor seems more willing to bring Perkins into a game for more than one inning (he's done it twice this season) but the concept wasn't completely foreign to Gardenhire, either. Perkins pitched more than one inning four times during Gardenhire's final two seasons. It's a welcome move to aggressively use your closer in that manner but Gardy wasn't completely averse to doing it, either.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I still don't believe in the White Sox. Overall, their team OPS is 27th in baseball. Just three teams - one from the AL - sit behind them. They've improved only marginally in May, posting the 23rd team OPS in baseball. Only three AL teams rank below them. The Whities play half their games in a bandbox. Their OPS needs to skyrocket before they even sniff contender status.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    It has flown under the radar but Mike Pelfrey's groundball rate now sits at an impressive 56% for the season. That's better than Kyle Gibson.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That's... Partially true. Nolasco has somewhat lucked his way into so many wins this month but he's been a better pitcher, despite being unlucky with a .374 BABIP. He has struck out 25 hitters in 28 innings while walking just six during that span. If he keeps it up, he's an above average pitcher (though I'm as skeptical as anyone about his ability to keep that up). I always assumed this to be the case. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Meyer is in Minnesota by season's end, pitching out of the pen. That might be the best thing for his development.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I find it interesting that after all the teeth-gnashing about the "slow" rebuild, the Twins are lock-step with the Astros (though having watched many Astros games this year, I believe them to be the better team) but they got there one year faster than Houston. I rolled my eyes as much as anyone during the Kevin Correia-type signings but ultimately, it didn't matter or hinder the team's long game (on the other hand, moves like releasing Worley surely did). The Twins are rotating in younger players by the week and are in a very good position to keep racking up wins for the next half decade.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Mauer is very good with RISP, I don't understand why people rag on him so much. Here are the differences with RISP: Joe Mauer: BA: +.028 OBP: +.090 SLG: +.029 Miguel Cabrera (I just picked a random good player): BA: +.025 OBP: +.048 SLG: +.011 Yeah, so Joe Mauer. Despite "putting the bat on his shoulder and going after the walk", he still has a higher slugging increase than Miguel Cabrera with RISP.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    It should be added that most of the difference in the splits between RISP and bases empty comes from increased OBP minus BA (in other words, walks). But not all of it. Small gains were often seen in BA and SLG in the years I spot-checked. My thinking is that bad pitchers put more men on base. Bad pitchers give up higher OPS to opposing hitters. Add in the increased walk rate (for obvious reasons) and you have the difference between bases empty and RISP splits. Clayton Kershaw doesn't allow as many runners into RISP as Ricky Nolasco does so most of Clayton's lights-out innings come with the bases empty. The inverse is true of Nolasco.
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