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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Indeed. I don't even think Tulo is the best player on the team in 2015. Dozier gets my nod for that title.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    They have six starters, yes. One of them can't pitch in the playoffs and two shouldn't pitch in the playoffs. Remove Gibson and the team is down to just two adequate playoff starters.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    To be clear, I'm not super high on Gibson. I like him but he's not outstanding. My opposition to trading him is that it directly undermines the "win now" aspect of acquiring Tulo and I don't see how that's even debatable.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    There's almost a zero chance the Twins win in the playoffs without Gibson. That should be enough of an argument for anyone. He is their only above average pitcher. Couple that with the Twins' shoddy pen and you can write "one and done" in pen. Tulo will likely remain a good player for a few more years but he's not the player he was five years ago. He faces injury issues on almost a yearly basis. If you're trying to win now by acquiring Tulo, giving up Gibson is in direct opposition to that goal. Teams improve by giving up future talent, not today's talent.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    That doesn't make sense any way you look at it. Escobar has been an average shortstop (or better) whenever he gets the chance to start. Kurt Suzuki has been below replacement level for most of the season and is 31 years old. Even if Escobar fails, the Twins have other players to fill in at short. I'm not much of a fan of any of them, but they exist. The Twins options at catcher are: Kurt Suzuki.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the two players have a pretty good shot of being of nearly equal value from 2015-2018. Either way, I expect it to be relatively close. Except one of them costs $15m and the other costs $100m. Whether the posters here want to buy into reality or not, money matters. The Twins aren't going to post a $200m payroll in 2017. Acquiring Tulo, while not a terrible idea under the right circumstances, will seriously hamstring Ryan in acquiring future players. That counts for something. If one wants to build a winning team, one has to acquire better players, not acquire better players while giving up better players.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not a direct comparison, WAR was used to point out just how terrible an idea that is because Kyle Gibson has been really, really good and continues to improve as the season progresses. Is Kyle Gibson more valuable than Tulowitzki in 2015? I'm far from certain that's the case. Is Kyle Gibson at $500k more valuable than Tulowitski at $20m? Hell yes. That's not even in doubt. To give up a good cost-controlled player who is contributing today for an older expensive player who may or may not contribute more wins to the team is the kind of deal that gets general managers fired, and for good reason. It's idiotic. And then you get into the fact that Tulowitzki has a pretty extensive injury history and has crossed the age of 30. There isn't a situation where you can paint that trade idea in a positive light. Tulo is a "win now" move. It's damned near impossible to "win now" when you give up a younger, possibly equal value, player in trade for that older, expensive player. Gibson could actually get better from 2016-2018. It's unlikely but it's possible and it costs the Twins very little to find out. On the other hand, you can pretty much bank on Tulowitzki diminishing in some capacity from 2016-2018. It has already started to happen. His fielding metrics are no longer impressive and haven't been for several years.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    if Escobar continues starting, shortstop will no longer be a negative WAR position. Catcher will likely remain a negative WAR position until Suzuki is replaced. Which position is a higher priority again?
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, exactly. I thought the point of acquiring Tulo was immediate gratification and wins. If you trade your only above average starter in the process, I struggle to see where the additional wins are found. Kyle Gibson is a 27 year old 3 WAR player making peanuts. Troy Tulowitzki is a 30 year old 1.6 WAR player making $20m. Yet people want to trade those two players? WTF.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Sick burn, bro.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    He has a 110 wRC+ as a shortstop and defensive metrics rate him as consistently average. But yeah, other than that he's pretty terrible.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Sigh. Yeah, I got "told". *rolls eyes* Care to revisit your completely baseless, statistically inaccurate, and anecdotal Escobar argument from a few pages ago, Dave?
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    If Ryan could unload Nolasco and not give up Sano, Buxton, or Berrios, he deserves a gold statue outside Target Field. I'd push hard with Kepler and Polanco. If you're going to get something done without giving up one of the top three, I think both those players need to be in the conversation.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it's a rebuttal to people repeating the "NL West is hurting his numbers" argument. I don't see it. Coors positively affects his numbers but there's only a marginal dip when you look at his NL West road numbers. Dodger Stadium is the only stadium that has crushed Tulo in his career but that probably has as much to do with the Dodgers pitching staff as the park itself (just a .700 OPS there, yikes). The other three parks are within .030 of his career road splits.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    But by having an impact, it diminishes the validity of the argument that Tulo's road numbers are hamstrung by playing in the NL West. Dodger Stadium, PETCO, and AT&T Park don't negatively disrupt batting average numbers but Coors does positively disrupt batting average numbers (and therefore SLG numbers as well). Hence, the home/road splits. The NL West is largely irrelevant in the argument.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Players don't control where they hit the ball. It appears that most players have the same Coors effect on their batting average if you find a sample size large enough to give an accurate representation of the player. Yes, Tulo is a very good player wherever he plays but it's a mistake to not acknowledge the effect Coors Field has had on his slash line. It's there and it's readily apparent, just as it is with most players. Most people point at the power numbers in Coors but that's not where most players I've followed get dinged. It's the batting average, which mostly negates the argument that the NL West is heavily impacting his road numbers. LA, SD, and SF don't have average-sapping outfields. They're just normal outfields, if a bit on the large side of things.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Even discussing Gibson in Tulo trade talks is pure insanity. Give up Gibson, the only pitcher on this squad who is truly above average, for a SS who could begin his decline phase as early as tomorrow. I thought the point was to win in 2015. That seems a lot like robbing Peter to pay Paul and that's not going to bring a championship to Minnesota. Without Gibson, who actually wins a game for the Twins this October? May? Eh... Maybe if you're happy with a 5 IP, 1 ER game. Santana? Nope, can't play. Milone? Maybe - maybe - you put him out there in game four. Pelfrey? LOL.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, anything you take from BA you have to also remove from SLG so the player ends up profiling quite differently once you remove the Coors effect. Average is the one aspect of a slash line that hits OPS twice (once for OBP, once for SLG). Out of curiosity, I looked up the Rockies' team stats since 2000. It's kinda insane. Since 2000, these are the years the Rockies led the NL in home batting average: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015. Since 2000, these are the years the Rockies finished in the top half of the NL in road batting average: ... It hasn't happened. They've never finished higher than tenth.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought I pretty clearly dispelled this a few pages ago. Holliday is no less exempt from it than other players. Coors Field's biggest trait is that it inflates batting average but may or may not have a significant impact on power numbers. Removing a player from Coors has a visible impact on most players because they don't get to spray hits all over the outfield. The stadium is the king of cheap hits. Holliday career numbers: .307 .386 .520 .906 Holliday Coors numbers: .361 .427 .656 1.082 Holliday Busch numbers: .310 .405 .534 .938 Playing in the NL West has a minimal impact because while AT&T, Dodger Stadium, and PETCO may sap power numbers, they certainly don't hurt batting average to the tune of .055 points. No stadium outside of Coors can manipulate a player's batting average to that extent.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be shocked to see Turner in Minnesota before September of 2016, especially given how 2015 has gone for him.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, there are concerns with the Twins SS prospects but my point is the Twins HAVE SS prospects. Catcher on the other hand...
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I prize Berrios so much because he's capable of two things I value more than Tulo: 1. Becoming a legit #2 as early as next season. 2. He's the best bet to acquire a legit catcher.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    They had a guy. They traded him away and inexplicably brought him back as an outfielder last season. How about this? Tulo for Kepler, Polanco, and Meyer. Do the Rockies listen? Probably not but that's a deal I could get behind.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'm the baseball pleb, Mr. UZR/150 over a 15 game sample size. It depends on what Tulo costs. If there's a way to get him without giving up Sano or Buxton, you have to at least give it thought... But really, the biggest long-term gains for this team will be made at catcher. Any prospect traded for Tulo is a prospect you can't trade for a guy like LuCroy or Susac or whomever. Plouffe/Arcia isn't going to get you a catcher because a team looking to move a catcher probably isn't interested in Plouffe (ie. they're in a rebuilding phase) and Arcia isn't enough to get a good return. Berrios is your best bankable chip to get a catcher and the Twins need a long-term solution at the position. The Twins don't need a catcher in 2015. They need a catcher in 2015, 2016, 2017... But can you really say the same thing with certainty about shortstop? I can't. The Twins have three viable, though questionable, options at shortstop. They have zero options at catcher.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll give you 2016 but it gets murky after that and I seriously doubt Tulo is a critical piece of the 2019 World Champion Minnesota Twins.
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