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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Teams shouldn't worry about selling high when they're leading the division, particularly when it's one of the guys who helped them get there. If it helps make the team better today, that's a different story... But trading Mike Pelfrey probably isn't going to help make the team better in 2015.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    So the Twins, while leading the division, should trade their second best starter because he has value right now? Sounds like a good way to intentionally shot yourself in the foot.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not going to like seeing May get demoted, either... But as long as Pelfrey is sporting a top ten ERA, you have to put him on the mound every fifth day. This season - as surprising as this is to say - is turning into a time when the Twins have to think more about winning every game possible and less about prospect development (thankfully, those two things will overlap in many situations so it's not an issue most of the time).
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope. Nope. Nope. What makes you so bloody confident in Tommy Milone and his 86 mph fastball? Mike Pelfrey is helping the first place Minnesota Twins win baseball games. Full stop. This isn't a video game. These are real, live human beings and you ride the hot hand while it's working.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Trading the second best starter when the team has the best record in the American League would be incredibly foolish. Mike Pelfrey is helping win baseball games. That is literally the *only* thing that matters right now when it comes to the subject of Mike Pelfrey. I agree the bullpen needs an overhaul but the rotation should only be changed if it is a clear and obvious upgrade. Milone might not be better than Nolasco, much less Pelfrey.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    That clarification makes way more sense. Yeah, his chances of being a plus MLB starter seem to dip slightly by the month but if the guy can stay healthy and keeps his high 90s fastball, he should be a nice bullpen piece at the very least. As I said earlier, his strikeout rate isn't nearly as concerning as his injury issues. The guy has been throwing a limited pitch selection, is on both a strict pitch count and innings limit, and hasn't come close to really unleashing on opposing hitters yet. If a guy isn't throwing his plus offspeed stuff - which Stewart absolutely has - his K rate is going to suffer badly and shouldn't be the determining factor of whether he's "succeeding" or not. Kohl is still very much in a developmental period and that isn't shown in the box score. While I'm pretty dedicated to sabremetrics myself, it seems that some people forget that not everything is shown in a box score, particularly MiLB where we don't even have access to things like pitch selection and speed. As long as scouts and analysts stay bullish on Stewart, I'm going to temper my concern. By virtually every account you read anywhere by people who have watched the kid pitch, he has the stuff to miss bats. If he gets through a full season without restrictions and continues to strike out four per nine, then it's probably time to start raising the big red flags.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm also most concerned about his health, particularly his rollercoaster fastball velocity. The guy is on a strict pitch count and innings limit. I won't get too worked up about his results until those limits are removed and we get to see what Kohl can really do, if and when he gets healthy.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    5%? Oy. A 20 year old pitcher who, when healthy, can touch the high 90s has a 5% chance of success in the majors? And we're basing this on his inability to miss bats for a partial development season where he was pitch-restricted and 38 innings of the following season? Seasons when he has struggled with injury concerns? This thread has taken a turn straight into CrazyTown. Stewart might be a permanent injury concern. He might never strike guys out. Those are real possibilities but I'll let the guy reach, oh I don't know... maybe 200 career innings before writing him off as an automatic bust or giving him a one out of twenty chance of success in major league baseball, especially when you read reports from people who have watched him pitch say things like "effortless delivery", "reaches high 90s", and "elite prospect".
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm well aware of the hurdles facing Stewart and his K rate. It's possible, maybe even likely, that he doesn't overcome those hurdles and fails to be an impact at the major league level. But people are really overreacting in this thread. Stewart isn't a typical prospect. - He's 20 years old in A+ ball and has all of 38 innings under his belt. - He never dedicated himself fully to pitching until he was drafted in 2013 and didn't really get a taste of professional baseball until 2014 (uh... that's last season). - The Twins had him on a limited pitch selection most, if not all, of last season. - I have no idea what pitches he's throwing right now and what frequency he's throwing them. - In July of last season, BA had Stewart's fastball touching 98 mph. - He made just seven starts in the second half of 2014. He has basically pitched one full MiLB season at this point. Stewart is still in the developmental phase of his professional career. He could be as many as five years away from Minnesota and still break into the league as a 25 year old (aka. the debut age of Trevor May and Kyle Gibson). He's pitching against hitters who are a huge step up from anything he's seen in the past. If Stewart is struggling in July and August of this year, then my concern will elevate quite a bit... But right now? No. It's way too early to be so knee-jerk reactionary about 38 innings. MiLB is so much more than looking at box scores. The scouts who have actually watched Stewart pitch are still very high on the kid. Does everyone down on Stewart think those scouts and analysts don't look at box scores? This is what John Sickels had to say in November of last year about Stewart:
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    38 innings at a higher level of competition than he's ever pitched before. The guy is pitching in Ft Myers and isn't old enough to drink legally. "Mildly concerned" is the correct position to take here.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh... Okay. I guess almost every baseball analyst on the planet must be completely wrong about Kohl. His K rate is mildly concerning but the guy has loads of talent.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    If he played half his games in a stadium like PETCO, it'd be interesting to see him try. Target Field is a tougher place to do it. Plus, Byron is a righty. I don't know if he'll have the opposite field power or swing to be a triples machine in the majors.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Glen Perkins is not overrated. Since 2011, here are his stats: IP: 279.1 SO: 307 BB: 66 (!) H: 239 HR: 24 (!) Those are pretty close to video game numbers.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If you plan to use him as trade bait, he'll gain the most value by staying in Rochester, starting games. 10-15 innings of MLB mop-up work isn't going to help gain value.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you can expect #1 to happen soon, #3-5 to happen relatively soon (mid to late June is my guess), and keep hoping on #6. As for #2, I'd love to see Milone but who do you kick out of the rotation to do it? Trevor May? No thanks. And putting Milone in a long relief role in Minnesota seems like a giant waste to me. I'm hoping that in June or July, Ryan is able to move Milone in trade for a piece that will help the Twins in 2015, provided everybody is still healthy and the Twins are contending.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh. While kinda funny, that's not really fair to say about Berrios. The Twins have been quite aggressive in promoting him, so much that they even gave him a Rochester start last season as a 20 year old. It's obvious that the organization is a big fan of the kid. I'm sure the Twins are planning to promote him as soon as they begin their mid-season wave of promotions.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    It's becoming quite apparent that Berrios has little left to learn in Chattanooga. The Twins need to consider a promotion and consider it soon.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins can recoup value from Pelfrey by letting him help them win ball games in 2015.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Bonds had a WAR of 162. I just can't even.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Perkins is a gimme choice. I'd also probably nominate Dozier because he's been good for quite some time and deserves his first nod. Plouffe would make it many years but this year, it seems like a crowded field at third (something not often said in the history of baseball).
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Vlad Guerrero in his prime. Dude was a cartoon character with that swing.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. I've been meaning to look that up and never got around to it. The starters seem like they're missing a lot more bats in recent weeks, which is surely making their FIP and xFIP look better.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    They're actually middle of the pack - 15th in baseball - in scoring first inning runs this season. But they're first in second inning runs and second in third inning runs.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Too early to say. If Pelfrey drifts back to league average, it'll be easier to replace him and ease the rotation logjam that's coming. If he's still pitching lights-out in July and the Twins are still in the hunt, I think there's almost a zero percent chance he'll be traded. Remember that Santana cannot pitch in the playoffs this season. If the Twins look like a playoff contender, that will almost certainly factor into Ryan's decision.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Going with your closer for a 4+ out save is a lot less necessary when you have nearly the same quality pitcher getting guys out in the eighth inning.
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