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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Putting Mike Pelfrey in the rotation might be the right call from an intellectual standpoint - though I'm far from convinced that's the case - but from a fan emotional standpoint, I never wanted to see Mike Pelfrey make another start for the Twins and I certainly didn't want to see him make starts in April.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I can't really disagree with this take, at least not in 2015. The Twins have so many guys who could step into a relief role. I like the idea of scrapheap pick-ups but if they're not performing, you cast them aside quickly and you certainly don't let them get in the way of guys like Burdi.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Ryan is right in avoiding high profile bullpen arms in free agency. Relievers are just too damned volatile from season to season and the impact of a single reliever just isn't high enough to offset that risk. If things get bad, be aggressive and call up Nick Burdi.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't mean to imply that last year's bullpen was good. My intent was to point out that Ryan's bullpens are rarely bad. Last year faltered as yet another rotation fell to pieces mid season but they weren't a very strong group of pitchers in the first place. I'm not going to fret about the bullpen until they throw innings in MLB games that count. Do I trust this bullpen? No, not even a little bit. But given the volatility of bullpen arms and the live arms in the Twins' farm system, I'm not going to go marching up to 34 Twins Way with a torch and pitchfork quite yet.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    They've gotten the job done, whether xFIP wants you to believe that or not. Any failings of the bullpen have been directly tied to the rotation and eight men bullpens. The Twins' core bullpen guys have been "good enough". No, they're not flashy and no, they're not the darling of advanced metrics but they haven't killed the team. What has killed the pitching staff is a rotation that can barely pitch five innings a game. No bullpen will shine under that spotlight as you dig into your eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh best bullpen option during the season.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    There are many reasons to be frustrated with Ryan but his bullpens are not one of them. The guy has built a career of slapping together quality bullpens on the cheap. Yeah, I'm not in love with the appearance of the 2015 pen but I'm going to let them pitch before I get too upset about it.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Fantastic article, Parker. One of the best I've read lately.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    All that other stuff is implied.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not likely at all. Second basemen who post 9 WAR over two seasons are a rare commodity. Polanco has a chance to do that by 2018 but there's not a particularly good chance he can do it. Polanco is a decent, not great, prospect. He's the kind of guy who you keep an eye on and hope that he matures into something much better than he is right now. Kinda like Brian Dozier, actually... Though Polanco is younger and probably has a higher floor than Dozier. Either way, it's rare for Brian Dozier to turn into Brian Dozier and it'd be stunning to see the Twins strike gold like that twice in a row. Past Polanco, there's... not much. Santana is a SS. Rosario won't be as good as Dozier even if the Twins moved him back to second. Gordon also profiles as a SS and his bat is a pretty big question mark (plus, it would require him to play out of his mind to be in Minnesota by 2018). It continually baffles me how some Twins fans undersell Brian Dozier. He's not a "great" player but he's not far from it, either. He has been a fringe top five performer at his position for two years running. That's a damned fine player.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. The league has declined in offense. My point was that at the same age, Morneau was not hopeless against lefties. Below average, yes... But not so far from average that he had no hope of ever getting there. Ultimately, he become an average hitter against lefties, which is pretty good for a LHB.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Not in love with OPS differential because it ignores the overall quality of the hitter. Many seasons, Morneau had a 200 point differential... But nobody cared because he OPSed over .900 against righties (the strong side of the platoon) and .700 against lefties (basically, he held his own). Overall, that's a damned fine hitter who will post around a 120 OPS+ every season. It's also a hitter that can't be completely marginalized in late innings because he can't hit a lefty to save his life. If Arcia can replicate that, we'd all be thrilled... But he'd need to become a much better hitter overall to do it.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Lefty hitters often struggle against southpaw pitchers, yes... But Arcia doesn't just struggle. He's absolutely horrid against lefties. He has a .266 OBP against them and a .613 OPS. Morneau's career OPS against lefties is .100 OPS higher. Morneau was also a much better hitter against all pitchers, which makes it easier to stomach mediocrity against same-handed pitching. During his breakout season of 2004, his OPS against lefties was: .240 .289 .427 .716 Arcia's 2014 OPS against lefties (same age): .198 .261 .313 .574 There's "good hitter but mediocre against lefties", which is pretty common among good lefty hitters. Then there's "OMG cover your eyes, this guy is facing a lefty". Morneau was the former, Arcia is currently the latter.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    For me, it's not about "knowing" so much as "this player has the type of floor that could put him out of baseball in 3-4 years". Arcia doesn't have faults, he has some glaring issues that need to be resolved for him to be a long-term fixture at a defensive position. If he doesn't fix one or more of them, he's a platoon bat. Platoon bats don't get extensions. The day Byron Buxton hits Minnesota, I won't know if he'll be a 90 OPS+ player or a 140 OPS+ player... But I'd pursue an extension anyway because Buxton, as an up-the-middle defender, can be of real value whether he hits like Babe Ruth or Nick Punto. Sano, while not a defensive force, should hit enough to be a DH no matter what happens so an extension should be explored there as well. Arcia hasn't shown that he can even hit enough to hold down DH. It's about risk mitigation. Is the floor of this player so low that he could be out of baseball before the contract is done? If yes, then I drag my feet on an extension until that player shows me he can hold a place on an MLB roster.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Like you imply, I think the biggest reason we haven't seen more aggressive extensions is because the players haven't been worth it. Brian Dozier was a middling prospect who floundering and then found a groove. It would have been a big risk to sign him last offseason when 2013 could have easily been a career year for Brian. Oswaldo Arcia is a prospect with a ton of warts. Horrible defense, bad discipline, lots of power. If he is relegated to a platoon or DH role - a real possibility - his value falls through the floor. Trevor Plouffe had many of the same issues; thankfully, he managed to work through them and become a solid player but one can't hand out extensions with the hope a player improves drastically to earn that money. Even Span had the traits of a guy who was a near lock to earn modest extension money: solid up-the-middle defense, good/great discipline, and solid speed. It was a pretty low-risk deal. Span's floor was a no-hit up-the-middle guy who can get on base and help you defensively at a critical position. That's worth some money whether he hits .300 or not (and it should be noted that since having two consecutive 100+ OPS+ seasons to start his career, he has only done it twice in the five years following). It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Twins aggressively pursue extensions for Sano and/or Buxton, who profile as the type of player you want to lock up.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, my thoughts as well. Arcia has some pretty huge question marks so locking him up could be saving a ton of money or it could be throwing money on the fire. Brian Dozier had few question marks by comparison so the deal made more sense. If Arcia was a better defender, I'd be all over an extension... But if he was a better defender, he'd be a better player with fewer question marks so we're back at square one.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    But to turn down an option, the team usually has to eat $1-2m so you're turning a potential qualifying offer acceptance into a $17-18m contract, which is elite player money. And there's always space on the roster for a guy who's so good that he's looking at a $50m+ contract in the open market. With the new qualifying offer rules, the amount of money a player has to turn down has created a scenario where only a handful of free agents are willing to try their hand at the open market every season. On top of that, if a player is good enough to turn down a qualifying offer, you take the team option because trading 4-5 months of Brian Dozier will net you a good prospect, someone much more likely to help the MLB team than a late first or second round pick.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    My point is that if you think the player is worth that dollar amount, tradability of the contract is implied. Make a good decision on player value and the rest falls in line.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it's not really very smart. If a player is so good that he can afford to turn down a qualifying offer, you want that player on your team for the option price every time, if only to trade him early in the season (which will net you more of a sure thing than a comp pick).
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really think that tradability should enter contract negotiations unless a no-trade clause is on the table. The cleaner one can keep discussions and negotiations, the better. Player A is worth X Dollars to play for our team. Negotiate from that point... If you're worried about tradability, you should have other, more serious, doubts about offering the contract in the first place.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that it wouldn't make the slightest bit of sense. Pretty much every team option comes with a $1-2m decline cost, which the team has to eat... And there's no reason to decline an option if you actually want the player. If the player is good enough to decline a ~$15m qualifying offer because he's going to get more on the open market, you want that player on your team.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Pelfrey's pitch selection as a starter: *catcher puts down one finger* Pelfrey's pitch selection as a reliever: *catcher puts down one finger*
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The only way to get draft pick compensation is to offer a player a ~$15m qualifying offer (the number varies slightly by year, it's an average of top-paid players) and have them turn it down.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. So I was right about that part of the deal. Four years at $20m seemed a touch on the low side to me after Dozier racked up 9 WAR in two seasons. It makes sense that they wanted the guaranteed money to set Brian up for life while still getting a shot at huge free agency money in his early 30s. Sacrifice a couple of million now - while still getting $20m - for a shot at $50m+ down the road.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, for sure. I wouldn't rule out a trade by any means, just pointing out that it probably didn't even enter the Twins' thought process when signing the deal.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Career year is a bit misleading... Dozier was close to a 4 WAR player in 2013 and a tick over 5 WAR in 2014. He's had over 1100 plate appearances of consistent performance. And we're talking a yearly rate that is less than Mike Pelfrey will receive this season and less than what Kevin Correia received last season. The upside of this contract is pretty solid and the downside isn't enough money to really worry about... Roughly 1/20th of payroll averaged over four seasons. I think this deal is pretty solid on clubhouse goodwill alone. The Twins just showed that they are willing to hand over money to solid young players that perform on the baseball diamond. That has to motivate guys like Arcia, Santana, Vargas, etc. in some capacity.
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