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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Yeah, I don't put much stock in his starting numbers with MoB. Relief is an entirely different role and with the increased velocity (hopefully, anyway) and increased aggression (hit this fastball, I dare you, hit this fastball, I dare you) from the bullpen, he could profile as a very different pitcher in a few months. I don't care much where Pelfrey ends up, I only hope the Twins do what's best for the team in 2015.
  2. If you have suggestions on which threads to highlight each week, shoot me a message or email me at brock@twindaily.com by Thursday evening and I’ll add it to the following day’s article. If you’re not familiar with how MinnCentric sites operate, we use a universal login system. If you have created an account on Twins Daily, Vikings Journal, or Wild Xtra, the same login information works on all three of our sites so start commenting! Let’s get into this week’s action… Michael Beller from SI.com takes a look at Brian Dozier’s last two seasons and asks the question “is he due to regress?” Always a conversation-starter on the Twins Daily forums, this thread sparked a lively debate about Dozier and his ability to maintain 2014’s performance level. Dozier: A Candidate for Regression? Nick Nelson posted the top 11-15 prospects in the Twins system - many of which would be top five or ten prospects in other systems - and debate raged over the order of the list. Where would you put Lewis Thorpe, the left-handed teenager with shoulder questions? Twins Top Prospects: 11-15 Twins Daily member Halsey Hall has been moseying around sunny Ft Myers, enjoying above-freezing temperatures while keeping us updated on the happenings at Hammond Stadium, including its renovation. No one likes Halsey Hall. Hammond Happenings Fellow Twins site Twinkie Town interviewed the Twins Assistant General Manager, Rob Antony. When the front office is involved, expect “lively” debate on the merits of everything from the acquisition of Ervin Santana to statements that removing the trees was a mistake to suggesting that the front office should be replaced by concessionaires. Twinkie Town Interview with Rob Antony In Wild News: Last night was a good night and it couldn't have gone better for the Wild had they scripted it themselves. Surrounded in the standings by Dallas, Vancouver, Colorado, and Los Angeles, all four teams played last night and lost in regulation. Catch up with the events of last night on our forum! Scoreboard Watch In Vikings News: What should the Vikings do this offseason? Do they shore up the offensive line and then call it a day or are there upgrades to be found on defense? Join the conversation and pretend you’re in Rick Spielman’s chair for a few minutes. 2015 Offseason Discussion So that’s it for this week. Every week, we’ll pick the best threads and post them in a Forum Friday article. If your thread is chosen for the article, you will be entered to win a free Papa John’s pizza at any Minnesota location to get to the forums and start commenting today!
  3. Actually, we're working on a new front page that might do exactly that. One of my goals is to raise the blog section's prominence on the front page. I haven't really cracked that nut yet but I'm working on it. IMO, the sidebar system works okay toward the top of the screen but it has limitations as you scroll down the page. I think we can create a better layout and we're working on it.
  4. Sure, but there's also a new manager and we have no idea how he views the rotation. I find it really unlikely that Molitor is going to come out of the gates with a good ol' boy attitude about the roster. If anything, I think he'll put too much stock in ST performance because he's going to feel obligated to field the best team possible out of the gate. I think we all fall into the rut of assuming that the team will be managed similarly because Gardenhire was around for so long (as long as many here have been Twins fans).... I know I find myself constantly checking built-in assumptions about the roster before I remember that Ron Gardenhire is no longer the manager. We have no idea what Molitor is going to do.
  5. Ouch. Too bad for Vic but them's the breaks of signing 36 year old players to four year deals.
  6. I don't put much stock in defensive catcher WAR; there are too many variables that aren't accounted for in catching. The most generous scouting reports I remember seeing on Martinez called him a mediocre defensive catcher. The least generous said he was awful. Scouting reports on Mauer almost universally praised his work behind the plate. I haven't looked into his pitch framing stats so I don't recall if he was any good at that.
  7. Ah, got it. Nothing to see here. Carry on, carry on.
  8. I've been looking at the blog section of the site lately and see that it hasn't gotten any TLC since launch. I made some small changes to how the blogs are listed in the mobile section of the site this morning and that got me thinking... I'm not a blogger. I should ask you bloggers what you want changes you'd like to see made to the site. I'm open to any suggestions, though obviously, time constraints may apply to whether the requested changes are feasible or not. So, what would you like to see? More customizability in the blog sections, better image support, different sorting methods? Give me your feedback on anything blog-related and I'll compile the most requested changes and see what I can do about it. Please don't suggest "carry over blog comments to the front page", though... I'd love to do that and it's a long-term goal but it simply isn't feasible right now. It'll get done at some point but that change will require a complete rethinking of how comments are generated and posted.
  9. That's not really fair. Going into last spring, people on this board had convinced themselves that Gibson had zero chance of making the rotation out of ST because the Twins already had "their guy" chosen on March 1. I'm willing to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt here. I hope it's an open competition until mid-March and then they start narrowing it down as we approach April. I just want to see the best guy get the job (though I'm hoping that "best guy" is Trevor May).
  10. As if on cue, BP releases catcher framing analysis back to 1988. Mauer rates pretty well. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25514
  11. Martinez was regarded as an awful catcher and moved away from the position because nobody wanted him to catch. Mauer was regarded as a very good catcher and moved away from the position because he rattled his brain one too many times. Maybe not such a good comparison. If not for Mauer's FBS*, he'd still be crouching behind the dish, racking up caught games. *Fuzzy Brain Syndrome
  12. Thanks for looking into this, Parker. I never bought into the "the shift is killing Mauer!" sentiment. Sure, he lost some XBH in 2014 and that hurts his slugging percentage quite a bit... But his BA? I don't buy that. He might lose a hit here and there but that doesn't explain away a .050 BA drop.
  13. He doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. In 2014, the median team OPS out of catcher was ~.675.
  14. I studied projections, player models, and then compared it to division opponents. After hours of grueling study and number-crunching, I have determined that this is what it will take to return the Twins to competitiveness in 2015:
  15. Yeah, the Twins are in a *much* better position to eat those contracts (annual rate, length of contract, Twins payroll capacity vs. Royals, etc) but it would have been *much* smarter to sign one James Shields than Santana/Nolasco, IMO. Doubly so when you look at the triumvirate of May/Meyer/Berrios the Twins have coming through the system. The Twins shouldn't be dipping their toe into Scherzer waters but I'd rather have one guy like Shields/Sanchez than the duo of Santana and Nolasco.
  16. I'd stand up and cheer if that happened. It'd make them formidable in 2015-2016 but I can't see that deal working out in the long run (then again, I don't think the Nolasco/Santana signings are going to work out in the long run for the Twins, either).
  17. Nope. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Probably the most competitive division in baseball for that reason. No team stands out as a clear favorite, no team is penciled in for 90+ losses (some think the Twins might end up there but I don't really buy it, I think they're good for at least 75 wins). If the Royals manage to get Shields back, they're the only threat for 90 wins, IMO.
  18. The Twins had some solid young players in 2010. Mauer and Morneau, obviously. My point isn't that the Tigers will implode, it's that given the average age of their best players, it's not out of the realm of possibility. I think Detroit will be one of three ALC teams in the 81-85 win range: DET, KC, CLE. You can even toss the Whities in there if a few things break right for them. Obviously, the ALC won't have four teams in the 81-85 win range but going into the season, I think most of the division has a reasonable shot at that mark (including the Twins if things really go right for them). One of the teams will "break out" a bit and be better than that but on paper, this division is *really* tight.
  19. I don't see them finishing outside the top three if their luck is neutral. But given the potential age issues with Verlander, Miggy, and Martinez, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers' 2015 looking a lot like the Twins' 2011. The Twins completely collapsed that season and they were younger than the Tigers are going into this season. That kind of collapse is unlikely but given how many of the Tigers' key players are over 30, it's not unimaginable that they could crash hard and fast.
  20. That'd make them instant favorites in the Central by a pretty healthy margin, IMO.
  21. Yeesh. Somehow I missed that Scherzer went to the Nationals. Yeah, I no longer think Detroit is going to win the division.
  22. Look at where Bourn derives the bulk of his fWAR and then rethink why you believe he's ripe for a bounceback. Here are his DRS numbers from the past several years: 11, 30, -3, 24, 3, -6. So we have a guy with a middling bat, mediocre/subpar on-base ability, a guy who gets a lot of his offense from his legs and derives most of his WAR from defense. This same player is entering his age 32 season at an up-the-middle position. And you expect him to bounce back? I look at that guy and see a pretty routine - and expected - player decline.
  23. Why should we expect a bounceback from Bourn? His numbers in 2014 (albeit in a shortened season) weren't far off his career numbers. He's basically a league average player that has two outlier seasons with a high WAR. He's a defensive-oriented up-the-middle player with a mediocre bat who is entering his age 32 season. If anything, Bourn is due to regress any minute now and when he does, there's a good chance it'll be ugly. He's a player on the wrong side of 30 who relies on his legs for offense. He doesn't hit for average, he's not particularly disciplined, and he doesn't have great power. I agree that Kipnis is probably due for a rebound season.
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