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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Which is why success rate is so important. Most stats I've seen have an over/under of around 70%. That's the zone when the stolen base turns from detriment to a positive.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    And a double has no value over a walk if nobody is on base and the hitter doesn't score, yet we count them all as doubles.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I find it interesting that some sabr-heavy teams are starting to look harder at the stolen base. Tampa was one of the better base-stealing teams in the league during their recent run of success. There's a lot of value in the stolen base if it's used correctly (and successful the vast majority of the time).
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Henderson had a ridiculous 81% success rate and is +500 stolen bases over second place, Lou Brock. I'm not sure what you're trying to get at but you'd be hard-pressed to find statistics that show those steals didn't have a huge impact over the course of his career. He also managed to scrape together a paltry 297 homers over the course of his career. And then there's the .401 career OBP.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Rickey don't like seeing Rickey compared to prospects.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Rickey was the greatest leadoff hitter of all time and it's not even close. He's easily one of the greatest players of all time, as evidenced by his appearance in so many statistical categories we prize today (OBP, BB) along with the stolen bases and 19th all-time in career bWAR despite being a "meh" defender. We'd be more than stoked if Buxton turned out anything like Rickey Henderson. Henderson played in the wrong era. He spend the latter part of his career in the homer-crazed late 80s and before we realized that not making an out was so bloody important in baseball. If he played today, he'd be considered the best player in baseball by a country mile.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I've heard this argument made a few times but I think the hit you take from moving a capable hitter down to the nine slot more than offsets any gain you get from extending the "table setting". Moving a guy from #2-#9 in the lineup costs him 60-80 plate appearances in a season (too lazy to do the math on that but that number is relatively accurate).
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'm fine with Buxton starting off in the leadoff spot but I hope he becomes more than that at some point.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but then you're sacrificing 50-70 plate appearances in a season by taking one of your better hitters and moving them to the ninth spot in the order.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that lineup construction isn't a huge factor in scoring runs but saying the leadoff hitter only leads off once and therefore power doesn't matter is a bit misleading. Hitting homeruns out of the leadoff spot is also impacted by the probability of the 7-9 hitters being on base during the leadoff hitter's plate appearance versus the probability of the 9-2 hitters being on base during the leadoff hitter's plate appearance. Obviously, any properly constructed lineup will see the 9-2 hitters being on base more often than the 7-9 hitters.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but in a perfect situation you'd rather have that guy batting 3-5 when it's more likely that runners are on base when it happens.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that if Hicks can maintain a .341 OBP, that's a good leadoff guy. I'm more than a little skeptical Hicks can maintain a .341 OBP in regular appearances.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Given Buxton's toolset, I'm hoping he forces his way into the 2 or 3 spot, not leadoff.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I lean toward Dozier. I think he'll continue to be a .730-.750 OPS second basemen but have a nagging feeling that many of those homers will turn into doubles this season. You don't want a leadoff guy jacking a bunch of solo shots but doubles are a good way to set the table. Plus, he can take a walk and his lack of BA won't hurt as much if there's nobody on base in front of him (ie. missed opportunities to advance runners on base).
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    More information about "Forum Friday 02/20/2015"
    The Astros and Twins share several traits: young teams, loads of potential, good farm systems, and bad records. Fangraphs scribe August Fagerstrom compares two young outfielders who each made an impression on their respective teams last season: George Springer and Oswaldo Arcia. Comparing George Springer to Oswaldo Arcia As pitchers and catchers prepare to report over the weekend, Twins Daily users continue to post their experiences from Fort Myers as the baseball season begins to ramp up in Florida and Arizona. Hammond Happenings Fangraphs loves the Twins farm system and ranked eight (!) Twins prospects on their top 200 list, though debate broke out over the omissions of Nick Burdi and Eddie Rosario. Twins fans are greedy when it comes to prospect rankings. Fangraphs Top 200 Prospects Derek Wetmore from ESPN 1500 wrote an article asking who should be the next player to have his number retired by the Twins. Should it be Torii Hunter? Jim Kaat? Brad Radke? Give your us your take! Twins Retired Numbers In Vikings News: Mike Freeman from Bleacher Report wrote an article blasting Johnny Manziel and praising Teddy Bridgewater. With every passing day, it seems more like the Browns took a bullet for the Vikings. Think About if We had Drafted Bridgewater In Wild News: Devan Dubnyk has been a revelation for the Wild. It turns out that his renaissance in the net may not be fueled by luck but is a result of new head-trajectory technology employed during the offseason. A must-read article. Dubnyk's New Technique
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    There seems to be a growing portion of the Twins fan base that would pay him a good chunk to play somewhere else.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    You mean the guy who was the Twins' best starter last season and the guy who just signed a massive contract extension to stay in Minnesota? You think that guy is going to be the Opening Day starter? Yeah, me too. Hughes' right arm could be in a cast and there'd still be a 75% chance he gets the Opening Day start in 2015.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    *hat tip*
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    At least my parents only did it once.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    That's the height of ridiculous. It basically breaks the scale of ridiculous.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That is utterly ridiculous.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It's an assumption to say those are the five best starters. Nolasco has a long track record of middling success while Meyer and May are big question marks.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    My point is that homers are not the only way to generate power. During his second half "power slump", Dozier's LD% remained solid as those homers turned into doubles. He was still hitting the ball hard, he was simply hitting that ball a slightly shorter distance. Dozier slugged .387 while hitting only five home runs in the second half. That's not the slugging percentage of a weak hitting second baseman.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    His control and velocity aren't a problem. I'm more down on Stewart than most because of the strikeouts but scouts are almost universally positive about him so I hold cautious optimism for the kid. The guy has only dedicated himself to baseball for what, less than two years? It takes time to move through a system and flourish when he's starting behind most other draft picks from a development standpoint.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Excellent point. I often find myself forgetting the enormous age gap between them.
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