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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And that's fair. If the coaches think he is ready, then I'll defer to their judgment... But I think calling up Hicks based purely on numbers is a mistake. That kid was a complete mess as recently as last season. If the coaches like his new swing and think his head is in a good spot, then call him up... But we've been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" dog and pony show too many times already. A little prudence isn't going to hurt in the long run. -
Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The league average OPS is around .710 this season (going from memory here, give or take .010 or .020 points). If Aaron Hicks plays stellar corner OF defense, can OPS over .700, and the Twins get power from the rest of their lineup, then Hicks would be just fine in a corner spot. -
Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It depends on Hicks' production. If he's still doing this in two weeks, I consider a promotion. If he's doing this in mid-June and hasn't received a promotion, then I'll start to wonder what the hell the Twins are thinking. So, to put a number on it, 2-4 weeks if Hicks continues raking in Rochester. Hicks has been very good for three weeks. Given Hicks' recent history, three weeks isn't enough for me and I don't think it's enough to prove anything about Hicks' mental state, though I will defer to the coaching staff there for obvious reasons. -
Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Going into the season, I would have been very happy with third place. This is a development year. If they manage to win during that development, great... But I'm interested in the Twins doing all they can to build sustained success, even if it costs a few wins in 2015. -
Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I see the Twins being forced to move one or more of Vargas, Pinto, or Arcia in the next year or two. The Twins have three players who profile best as DH and a slew of outfield prospects that are better defensively. Something has to give. -
Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Why do some think that Hicks either plays center or is a fourth outfielder? He could play a corner position if he can OPS over .700. A defensive outfield of Rosario, Buxton, and Hicks would be terrifying to opposing batters. -
Article: It's Time For Aaron Hicks
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't need to see half a season out of Hicks to believe he's a changed man but 19 games hasn't convinced me of anything. I'm glad he's doing well but he needs to show he can hit for a longer period of time and more importantly, coaches need to weigh in on Hicks' mental game before a promotion is handed out. I'm less worried about his ability than I am the grey matter betwixt his ears. That could be today, it could be June. I don't know. -
Batting average over a small sample size in AA means virtually nothing to me. What's important to me is the fact that Buxton is taking pitches he should take and absolutely mashing the ones over the plate (he's missing a fair amount of pitches as well but not enough to be a concern). Then he gets on the basepaths and wreaks havoc. Then he goes into center and reels off highlight catches and uses his rocket arm to double up baserunners who doubted his immense talent. Do I think Buxton should stay in AA for at least a few more weeks? Absolutely... But let's not understate a .880 OPS by a 21 year old coming off a lost season of baseball. The kid is killing it right now.
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It depends on personal perspective, I think. The Twins are obviously high on Rosario, as they were Polanco and Santana last season. There's something about those kids the Twins really like. In the case of Santana, it was obviously warranted and worked out wonderfully. Inversely, the Twins are extremely skeptical of Hicks, and for good reason. My personal feeling about that is "Well, no ****, Sherlock. Why didn't you recognize that in 2013?" but I'm happy they finally got on board with what seemed like a no-brainer decision to me. Do the Twins let work ethic and attitude influence their decisions, particularly with prospects? Yeah, I think they factor it in quite a bit and that's probably the right decision. Coming to the big leagues and playing every day is about a lot more than talent. All one has to do is look at Delmon Young to see that in action. Do the Twins let attitude and work ethic influence their decision-making too much? Well, that depends on your view of the situation... But I don't think Rosario's call-up is much of an indication of anything. The Twins all but said "we need an outfielder for a brief stint; he's here for two weeks and then goes back to the minors". Some disagree with me but I think the Twins' call-up of Rosario has equal parts "we don't want to mess with Aaron while he's rolling" and "we like Eddie quite a bit".
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The Super 2 deadline shouldn't impact the Twins' thinking in the slightest bit. What matters with Buxton is service time because if he pans out to be the player we expect him to be, an extension should come within 12-18 months after he hits MLB. Service time affects extension negotiations a lot but Super 2 status shouldn't be much of an influence because you're going to be paying the guy so much anyway. What's $5m more in a $75m contract? Who cares?
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I'm not suggesting the Twins don't factor in off-field attitude and work ethic, nor should they ignore it. But to claim that because Gardenhire "loved" Pelfrey - let's remember here that Ron Gardenhire did not have final authority over free agent acquisitions - is the reason the Twins signed him to a two year deal is quite a leap. Mike Pelfrey had a pretty good second half of 2013. I wouldn't have signed him to a two-year deal - I'm not sure I would have signed him to a one year deal - but assuming that was the main reason the Twins retained him after the 2013 season because the manager really liked him ignores quite a few things, including Pelfrey's performance and the fact that Gardenhire doesn't get to make that decision in the first place.
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I think that's really unfair to the front office. Pelfrey wasn't signed because he's a good guy. He was signed because he has the capability of being a pretty good pitcher when he's healthy (as evidenced by the second half of 2013). He's a good pitcher again this season and this is closer to what the Twins thought they were getting when they signed him two offseasons ago. Now, with that said... It's fair to criticize the Twins' thinking with Pelfrey, whether he had any business getting a two year deal and the likelihood of his performance being above average in either 2014 or 2015 based on his recent performances. Those are fair criticisms and they show blindspots in the Twins' evaluations of players, particularly pitchers in recent seasons. But to accuse the Twins of signing a guy because they like him? Nah, that's not fair. Pelfrey has shown flashes of competence on multiple occasions. He deserves better than that. As much as Mike Pelfrey drives me nuts, the thinking that went behind his signing is better than the thinking that went behind the Correia signing. At least Mike Pelfrey had some upside, as meager as that upside may be.
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Article: According To Plan
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Maybe to AAA but he didn't make his MLB debut until July. -
Rosario didn't perform well last year. I never said otherwise. But Rosario didn't fail to the point that he considered giving up switch-hitting permanently and didn't even tell his coach about it. That should raise enormous red flags about the mental state of Aaron Hicks as recently as last season. The kid looked and acted completely lost, a guy who was beat before he even stepped into the box. He wouldn't even take the bat off his shoulder, for crying out loud. Even the coaches were confused by his actions. That's not the type of guy you call up until you're sure he has sorted his problems and the Twins' explanation is rational. I'd be disappointed if they hadn't learned from their previous, repeated mistakes with Hicks by now. There's a lot more to a baseball player than a box score. Hicks' numbers were not only bad, he behaved like someone who had lost all confidence in his ability. If you want that person to be a longterm fixture in your organization, you treat him with kid gloves until he gets his head right and then you probably give him a few more weeks to make sure his head is right. Throwing him into the deep end again after he failed multiple times is a good way to waste what could be a valuable asset going forward. Again, my biggest complaint is that the Twins didn't take this approach with Hicks in 2013 or 2014. I'm certainly not going to blast them for finally trying to do right by the kid.
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Aaron Hicks had multiple months in 2013 where he OPSed over .700. Was he playing well then? Let's not fall over ourselves just because a prospect has a good month, particularly when his name is Aaron Hicks. I just can't wrap my head around why some of you are advocating that the guy get a call-up after so many spectacular failures, time after time after time. What's the rush? What harm is there in letting the kid see success at a level for more than three weeks before promoting him? Hell, right now I'd consider calling up Buxton before I'd call up Hicks if the 40 man wasn't an issue. I'd do everything in my power to let Hicks flourish for a prolonged stretch of time so he has the best possible chance of sticking on the 25 man roster permanently when he does get the call. It doesn't need to be months or even half a season... Just 6-8 weeks of solid play could do wonders for the poor kid's head.
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What makes you think Hicks has corrected himself enough to face MLB pitching again? ~60 ABs against RHP in Rochester? Given his spectacular, continued failure at every level since 2012, don't you think the prudent move is letting the kid prove himself a bit more before exposing him again? Think about that for a moment and how long that is in prospect years... Aaron Hicks has not had success at any level since August of 2012. That's 32 months ago.
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Oh boy, I can't disagree with that last statement enough. As the article implies, I think this move was equally about Hicks building confidence and Rosario's daily work ethic and the thinking behind this move is sound reasoning. This front office has horribly mismanaged Hicks for two years. We should applaud them for doing the right thing by the kid and letting him get his feet under him before exposing him to MLB pitching again. The kid was so completely lost that he gave up switch-hitting and didn't tell his coach. Give him more than 2-3 weeks to build up some confidence before throwing him to the wolves again. The Twins should have been playing the long game with Hicks in 2013 after his first failure. Instead, they continued to jerk him around and he failed everywhere he went. The best thing for his long-term development is being in a place where he can get his head right and once he does that, maybe he has a shot at becoming a productive MLB player.
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Fantastic. Any Twins fan that isn't reassured by that article has an irrational dislike of the front office. That was a well-reasoned, rational way to approach the situation and a good reminder that MiLB box scores don't tell us everything about a player. We need more articles like that when the Twins make a move that isn't completely logical on paper; real insight into their methodology and thinking. In this particular case, it's hard to argue that this wasn't the right move.
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In my opinion, the Twins didn't have a good option here but because Arcia is only going on the 15 day DL, giving Rosario a taste of MLB pitching isn't the worst thing in the world. If I was managing the Twins front office, I would do everything in my power to avoid "tainting" Hicks' recent success by letting something get into his head again. Let him succeed for an extended period of time before calling him up. The guy hasn't seen real success anywhere since 2012.
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The Twins won't lose Plouffe until November of 2017 no matter whether they extend him or not. Plouffe will be entering his age 32 season when they "lose" him. I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't sign Plouffe, I'm saying they shouldn't sign him right now because if Sano pans out at third base, they will no longer need Trevor and can use that money to fill a hole at a position of need. There is simply no reason to make this decision right now. In five months, we'll have a much better idea of what Sano can be and where he will play.

