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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    That's all fine and dandy and I do believe that good bullpens tend to overperform pythag records over a season but... The Royals were 22-25 in one run games last season. This argument doesn't really pass the smell test. IMO, bullpens can help pythag record differential but +5 is a pretty huge difference. I wouldn't put money on the Royals repeating that a second time. Add in the loss of Shields and his annual consumption of innings and things start to stack against the Royals repeating their 2014 campaign. It's not impossible because they're young and have room to develop but it's somewhat of a leap to just wash away 9+ wins between pythag and Shields and assume they're on the verge of a 90 win season (again, that's my argument... not whether the Royals will be good, whether they'll be as good or better than last year).
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think they'll be a pretty good team but they were lucky last year. Based on runs scored vs runs allowed, they were +5 wins over a luck neutral team. I didn't say everything went right last year. I said they need to compensate for 8-9 wins between luck and James Shields to be better than they were in 2014. That's a difficult hurdle to overcome. Not impossible but pretty difficult.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Until I read this. You're killing me, birdwatcher.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Probably my favorite statement in the history of the Twins Daily forums.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    It's going to require a lot to go right and virtually nothing to go wrong for the Royals to be better in 2015. They lost James Shields and finished +5 in Pythag last season. That's 8-9 games they need to compensate for in 2015 if luck-neutral. I expect the Royals to be around 85 wins. Good, not quite good enough to make the playoffs unless they get pretty lucky or the rest of the division falls completely flat.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I should add that if any team is going to completely implode in 2015, I think it'll be the Tigers. The Royals might slip but I think they'll still be good/decent. On the other hand, Detroit is primed for a couple of players to fall off a cliff.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are favored for last place and for good reason. If I was putting money on the Twins passing anybody, it'd be the Indians and/or White Sox, not the Royals. I'm not much of a prediction person but I see the ALC shaping up like this: DET KCR CHW CLE MIN (better but still last... maybe 75-78 wins) I hope it finishes more like: DET (they're old and can't sustain this forever so one more good year then collapse) KCR (gonna be a threat for awhile) MIN (progress!) CLE (just not in love with this team) CHW (not sure what to think of the Whities right now) I think this division is going to be *really* tight. No 90 win teams, no 90 loss teams. There's a good chance 88-89 wins takes this division.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Even if you do find a "summer job", chances are it's for peanuts because who needs a highly-paid employee for just a few months of the year? It's hard to find short-term development work (under three months) and development is a great fit for short-term employment based on the need employers have to ramp up/down project cycles. And even despite that fact, most employers would rather hire someone to develop 40 hours a week (whether they need it or not) than hire a part-time or temporary employee.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    The biggest problem is that MiLB players don't have a seat at the negotiating table. That's a big issue and it's just. plain. wrong. If they can't negotiate more money, so be it... but the fact that they don't get to negotiate is a huge problem. They have one shot to bargain (initial draft signing but even that is now restricted due to slotting) and after that, they're at the conscripted mercy of a boss that gets to control them for a decade. The largest group of employees in an industry making money hand over fist doesn't have anyone looking out for their interests. That needs to change.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't get the logic in this. I think you could say "the Twins want all their pitchers to pitch well" but I don't see a scenario where Ryan says "boy, seeing May become a solid starter would be nice but I hope he tanks so Mike Pelfrey looks good and that contract is justified". Ryan looks good if the Twins win ballgames. Nobody cares about the Pelfrey deal if the Twins win 85 games in 2015 and if Trevor May helps the Twins win more ballgames than Mike Pelfrey, I think he'll be the one taking the ball every fifth day (or Milone or whoever the Twins have the most faith in heading out of Ft Myers).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i299/leeped/comics-skits-jokes/nathan-fillion-well-nevermind.gif
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's just it. When Ricky showed up to a Wild game in a Dodgers hat, I didn't care... But after 2-3 more minor incidents, it's getting old. He was paid a boatload of money to pitch in Minnesota. If he didn't want to pitch in Minnesota, he shouldn't have signed here. I don't say this about many people/players but honestly, he gives me the perception that he's an ass. If he can't say anything nice about Minnesota - particularly after the $12 million dumpster fire that was 2014 - he needs to just keep his mouth shut.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    The dude just doesn't get it. Stop bashing Minnesota weather, Ricky. The fanbase is going to hate you for it in time. At least pretend like you want to be here. Somebody gave you $50m for what has been about a buck-fifty worth of performance thus far. Keep your mouth shut.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    As much as some don't want to see it, Nolasco has to be given a shot out of Spring Training. He has a long track record of success in MLB - albeit rather middling success - and had a really bad, off year in which he was hurt. I think his leash should be short but his track record demands he get a rotation spot out of ST.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    http://mediacdn.snorgcontent.com/media/catalog/product/c/l/clevergirl_fullpic_artwork_1.jpg
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, we are Minnesotans. The way I picture a Minnesota riot is hordes of middle-aged white people aggressively serving one another hotdish. Some may go as far as saying "thank you but I'm not hungry" as few as two times. It'll be utter chaos.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we're obligated to riot if that happens.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    We have placed a bag of tickets in the forest somewhere north of Bemidji. Godspeed, everyone. (just give your name at the door)
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how I feel as well. May showed enough last season that, barring collapse, he deserves the first look. I'm also in favor of sending Meyer to the bullpen to start the season, provided there's room for him.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Sausage King of Chicago reference. Nice.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the BB rate has to regress. The HR rate... Well, it'll probsbly land somewhere between his 2014 season and his old AL East/Yankee Stadium numbers. As you said, all of that could be offset by a reduction in BABIP. I think Hughes will continue to be good, though I'm not sure how good. He could easily repeat 2014 or he could slide toward 100 ERA+ territory. Neither would surprise me.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Trevor was credited with 10 errors at home in 2014 but was only credited with four on the road. If he's paying off scorekeepers, someone should explain to him that there's a better way to do it because it appears that he's not very bright.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Really nice article.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Trevor doesn't get enough credit among Twins fans. He has turned into a competent starter with a decent glove. He's not the type of guy you sign for four years but he's certainly the type of guy you can win with if you have flashier players at other positions around the diamond. He's no Corey Koskie but few are... And even Koskie was largely unappreciated in Minnesota during his tenure. He was a hell of a player.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Really? UZR doesn't account for walls? That's absurd. Plenty of stadiums have 10+ ft walls which make a catch impossible.
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