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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    My eyes and defensive metrics disagree with you. Escobar is a middling defensive shortstop (career -3 DRS, 1.8 UZR). His bat is one of a middling offensive shortstop. As a stop-gap player, that's just fine, particularly when you have a sucking black hole at starting catcher and a bullpen that last struck out the side during the Carter administration.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh my.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    What both sides are ignoring is that there's a huge middle ground between "punt" and "all-in". I'm all for tempered, rational acquisitions to keep the team in the hunt this season. What I'm against is pushing all the chips into the middle of the table.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    This. So much this. I rarely get furious at the Twins but I'm approaching that point with Escobar. There's no good &^%$ing reason why he isn't the starting SS.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    If you're fine with the .819 road OPS, that's a fair argument. But don't expect better than that. Because the dip comes from BA, it therefore impacts both OBP and SLG. That means if Tulo only hits extra singles in Coors that he doesn't hit on the road (which we know is silly), roughly .100 of his .150 OPS home/road split is due to that drop in batting average (.050 in OBP, .050 in SLG).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm all in on a catcher now. They need to let the rotation play out. The bullpen needs help. That's how I'd approach this July and the offseason. I think the Twins should try to incrementally improve the team right now and they should definitely improve the team this offseason. They won't have the same players next season. Every single player that matters is under control for 2016 and Buxton/Sano have a total of 110 PAs in a Twins uniform. Also, both are injured right now.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Did you just use UZR/150 over a 150 inning sample size?
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It wasn't a comparison to Walker or even an attempt to diminish Tulo's ability. It's a fact that players coming out of Coors often suffer a large decline in batting average because they no longer get to spray balls into an outfield the size a Wal-Mart parking lot. Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies, as a team, perennially have a .070-.110 drop in batting average between their home and road games. Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies lead the NL in home batting average almost every single year, yet rarely crack the top half of the NL in road batting average.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Santana should not be the starting shortstop. Escobar should not be in left field, which is where a large portion of that negative WAR comes from. 2/3rds of Escobar's 2015 innings have come in LF, which is beyond aggravating. He has the equivalent of about 15 games at short this season (begins pounding face on desk because just typing that number is so aggravating). Last season, Escobar was a 2.5 WAR player in 2/3rds of a season. So, yeah. Absolutely preposterous, Dave.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not really the problem with players coming out of Coors. It's the batting average. Larry Walker had this same issue. Tulo's home/road BA difference: .047 Moving him out of the NL West is not going to improve his batting average. Hell, last season the Rockies team had almost a full .100 batting average difference in their home/road splits. This season it's still around .070-.080.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely, but it's not much (if any) more difficult than trying to negotiate a trade for Tulo. Catchers are out there, the Twins just have to make sure they're first in line at the discussion table.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It's about opportunity cost. The Twins need Berrios because their rotation isn't young enough or good enough yet and after Jose, there's no help on the horizon for at least 12 months, probably more like 24 months. The Twins also have a handful of decent, though unspectacular, shortstops. One of them should be able to fill the void for a year or two. If we were talking about a good catcher, Berrios is definitely on the table because the Twins have other starting pitching prospects but absolutely zero legitimate catching prospects. But for a 30 year old shortstop? No, I don't think that's a good use of resources. Tulo may be a 5 WAR player but a 2 WAR catcher has the same net effect for the Minnesota Twins and there's zero chance the catching situation will improve in 2015 or 2016 unless Pinto magically stops being awful behind the dish. So go find a catcher. Chances are it might not even cost you Berrios. You might be able to get it done for Kepler + stuff. You make the same net team improvement but you get to keep your "big three" in the process and you're not on the hook for nearly $100m during a decline phase.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Sano has a sprained ankle and 53 MLB PAs. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The kid will be good but let's see how he does when MLB pitchers start throwing him nothing but junk. Gibson, Hughes, and May are a completely underwhelming playoff rotation. Couple that rotation with the "OMG, please pitch a CGSO" bullpen and you have a one-and-done recipe.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If only money was involved, I'd be all over Tulo. But it's not only money. It's $94m plus one of Sano, Buxton, or Berrios (barring any ridiculous magic tricks pulled by Ryan). That's a price I'm not willing to pay on a team that I feel is more pretender than contender.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't want to make the playoffs, I want to win in the playoffs. This Twins team doesn't have much over 100 PAs from their two top 10 prospects. Their best chance of winning in the playoffs is by keeping their best young players and letting them mature. This team is a few games UNDER .500 over the past 6-8 weeks. Every player who matters is under control in 2016. This is not yet a solid team. It's a lucky team with significant flaws. If Buxton and Sano thrive and turn into solid players, I'm all for banking a few prospects for a Tulo type player but right now, it seems really premature, especially when you have to give up one of Buxton, Sano, or Berrios to get Tulo in the first place.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Playing to win only makes sense when you feel you have a solid foundation, not because you're eight games over .500 largely due to luck and good timing. If the Twins pick up Tulo, they still don't have a competent playoff rotation, they still have huge question marks in the outfield and DH, and they still have a giant blackhole at catcher. If anything, all of those problems are worse because you had to give up so much to get Tulo in the first place. He's a good player and I'd love to see the Twins acquire someone of his ability but the team is too flawed and the price too great to pull the trigger on that move in 2015. I mean, if they can somehow manage to convince the Rockies to take a bunch of expendable players in the deal (Meyer, Polanco, Kepler), then yeah, you do that... but that's not reality. The price for Tulo is going to start with Buxton, Sano, or Berrios. That's too steep a price on a flawed Twins team. They need those pieces to round out all those flaws.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Tulo is a great player but I see a lot of downside in him and not much upside. He's in his age 30 season. As a shortstop, that's getting a little long in the tooth. Unsurprisingly, defensive metrics aren't a fan of a 30 year old shortstop. From 2007-2011, Tulo had a +77 DRS. That's great! From 2012-2015, it's +6. Good but definitely not anything close to great. Tulo has a .958 home OPS and an .819 road OPS for his career. Shocking. He's very good outside Coors Field but he's far from great. His home numbers are skewing the overall perception of him as a player and that's not even factoring in diminishing returns as he ages through his 30s. He is guaranteed $94m through 2020 with a $15m option for 2021. He will be 36 years old at that point. Again, Tulo is a great player right now. I don't think the Twins should be prioritizing "right now" that heavily, especially when that prioritization will hurt in later years.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree with all of this. The thing is that still makes him the best Twins SS option by a healthy margin.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    To be perfectly frank, shortstop isn't even on my radar beyond "start Escobar already... what the hell is wrong with you guys?" Unlike catcher and the bullpen, the Twins have internal options at short that have either proven the ability to competently play the position (Escobar) or have enough upside to warrant a roll of the dice (Polanco). I'd go with Escobar but whatever... choosing Polanco wouldn't make me mad or anything. The Twins also have internal bullpen options but they refuse to use them for some reason. It's... confusing. So, catcher. Go find a catcher.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I didn't find that article discouraging at all. By all accounts, the Twins like Kurt Suzuki the human being. They're not going to publicly trash the guy, particularly when they literally have zero other viable options at the position. The article leads off by saying the Twins are following a handful of catchers. I find that somewhat promising and that it's possible, maybe even likely, they think catcher is the biggest deficiency of the team right now (you can make an argument for the pen but I think catcher and bullpen are in lock-step as 1a and 1b in the problem dept.). But they need to find another catcher before April of 2016. If Suzuki starts the season behind the dish again, it's likely his option year vests and that's a bad position to be in to start 2017.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    This is the direction I'm leaning toward as well. In this organization, Kepler is valuable and expendable.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we're kinda talking past each other here. I don't expect Arcia to "improve" so much as "stay on the field and mature", which will result in improvement. Whether that's an improvement to a 110 OPS+ player or a 130 OPS+ player, I do not know. He certainly has the talent to be that 130 guy but the dude can't stay on the bloody field long enough to find out. I agree that his trade return has diminished, though. I think it's mostly due to repeated injury but that's picking nits. The end result is that he's not worth as much today as he was in 2013.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we're kinda talking past each other here. I don't expect Arcia to "improve" so much as "stay on the field and mature", which will result in improvement. Whether that's an improvement to a 110 OPS+ player or a 130 OPS+ player, I do not know. He certainly has the talent to be that 130 guy but the dude can't stay on the bloody field for long enough to find out. I agree that his trade return has diminished, though. I think it's mostly due to repeated injury but that's picking nits. The end result is that he's not worth as much today as he was in 2013.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    There are several players on Buxton's plane, I will agree with that point... But nobody in MiLB has much more upside than Byron. Again, Buxton is very good at literally everything he does. Those players are incredibly rare. Sano has similar upside to Buxton, though I don't see him being as valuable even if he hits like Miggy. Baseball is littered with players who are extremely good at one or two things. Finding the player who is very good at everything he does, that's a rare specimen and you hold on to that guy. Buxton has the kind of talent that's hard to valuate. He's fantastic in the field. He has a good arm. He can hit for respectable average. He has very good discipline. He's a respectable power hitter. He can swipe bags because he's blindingly fast. If he projects into the player we all expect him to become, he's basically flawless.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a sticky situation. You have the following options: 1. Berrios. I don't think Jose is untouchable but he's close. The Twins are putting together a young core of arms that can compete in 2016-2019 but they're missing another #2 pitcher to complement Gibson and May to round out a competent playoff rotation. I think Berrios is that guy so the catcher better be really good to let Jose slip from your grasp. 2. Stewart, Meyer, Thorpe. Their value is diminished right now. Can't move any of those guys. 3. Hu. A long way from MLB. His value is questionable because he's so far from the majors. There isn't a good answer to the question.
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