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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Bolded: Yes. Absolutely, yes. The stats don't matter. But there may be correlation to success that are displayed through successful box scores, such as plate discipline, exit velocity, and launch angle. But there are also troublesome box scores that may want to influence but mean little to nothing, such as Garlick batting .350, which skews his entire triple slash line and is unsustainable.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    They’re really not. Like, at all. Analytics told us quite some time ago that spring training performance has a very low correlation to regular season performance, so weak that it’s basically nonexistent. If a team is basing decisions from an ST box score, they’re almost certainly doing it wrong. Spring Training can tell a team a lot but it’s usually outside a box score and something that the general public is not privy to like attitude, work ethic, practice sessions, and biometric numbers.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    The vast majority of spring training happens outside a box score and that’s where the Twins are making their decisions.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Right?!?!?! I'm excited to see what Rooker can do. As I mentioned in another thread, he has done nothing but succeed since being drafted and I hope he continues that streak in a Minnesota uniform this season. It's also a bummer for Kirilloff because if a damned pandemic didn't drop on our heads last year, it's likely he's also in a Minnesota Twins uniform right now alongside Rooker. Frankly, this situation is pretty muddy and there isn't a clear answer, I can see the validity of both sides. And while it's fine to be disappointed for Kirilloff, the certainty felt by some about the decision one way or the other is quite unwarranted. It's a tough call to make.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Ultimately, I think pretty much everyone believes Alex Kirilloff will have a more successful career than Brent Rooker but that doesn't mean, in the here and now, Alex is the best choice to open the season. People are really down on Rooker and I don't understand why. He's a very capable bat right now and could stick on an MLB roster for several years. He's a good player, the kind that can pleasantly surprise (Brian Dozier, anyone?) or tank out of baseball in a couple of years. There's only one way to find out which it is. Brent Rooker deserves a chance. He got one last year and did everything he could with it before going down with a fluke injury. I have no problem with the Twins giving him another chance, the guy hasn't done anything but succeed since being drafted. I'm excited to see what he can do for the Twins in 2021 and this decision isn't nearly as clear cut as some of you Kirilloff backers are making it out to be.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd bet even money that a Rooker/Cave platoon is an upgrade over Rosario. It's not a high bar to clear, frankly. Rosario was a fine MLB starter but that's all. Cave is good against RHP and probably a smidge better defender than Rosario. Rooker should be good against LHP while being a smidge worse defender than Rosario.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sorry but if you're using Spring Training box scores to evaluate players to put on the 26-man roster, you're the one who needs to throw your indicators out the window because they're quite useless and lead to really bad decision making. We have decades of evidence to support that being the case.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Honest question: why are so many convinced that Alex Kirilloff is a better option than Brent Rooker in April of 2021? The only person you put on that list that is hard to replace is Trevor May, given that Odorizzi barely played (and when he did, badly) in 2020. I suspect the Twins get similar production from LF this season without Rosario. He simply wasn’t a very well-rounded player who graded out as adequate MLB starter material, performance that can pretty easily be replicated by a Rooker/Cave platoon hopefully giving way to Kirilloff starting later this season. PS. Kirilloff wouldn’t have started last October if Rooker and Buxton weren’t injured; it was an act of desperation, not a planned event.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Even if Rooker doesn't make the roster, there's virtually a zero percent chance he's taken off the 40-man roster and at this point, I believe he's close to a lock to make the 26-man for Opening Day. He's something of a defensive liability but given that he's a capable RHB, he's pretty badly needed in both the lineup and specifically the OF alongside a Cave platoon.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    That makes sense, as I know the underlying tech needed for some of this stuff hasn't been universally implemented in spring training facilities (but is available in most of them, IIRC from previous reading).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think there's a pretty good chance for Broxton to stick with the organization, knowing that Buxton is Mr Glass and he's the best (only?) reasonable AAAA backup behind him in an org that plans to contend for the division. I think he probably gets lost in the shuffle that is the mad dash of last-minute demotions that happens before Opening Day and if he has an opt-out (again, haven't looked into it), I suspect he won't get much more of an opportunity to log MLB games than he would in Minnesota and there's a good chance he opts to stay here in the org.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I think those are the kind of things the Twins are looking at, amongst other things. Does the public have access to that stuff for ST yet? I haven't looked into it.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    The expectations for Cave and Broxton’s bats aren’t close to a wash. Cave has proven himself a capable MLB hitter, Broxton has not... and Cave is quite a bit younger, to boot.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Why prioritize Rooker’s playing time right now? Maybe because the Twins feel they’ll field a better team in April by doing so. And it’s not as if Kirilloff will be sitting around doing nothing. I’m sure he’ll be playing some form of extended spring training, though it’d be a lot better (and an easier decision to make) if MLB hadn’t postponed the AAA season.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Can someone explain to me why we're so bullish on Garlick? Because of 28 Spring Training plate appearances? Come on, people, you've all been baseball fans long enough to know better than that. Even ignoring the bit about rusty pitchers and facing MiLB quality talent, Garlick could have five bad games in a row and his stats are pedestrian, if not terrible, again. Sigh.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a pretty raw deal for Cave, who looks particularly appealing as a platoon candidate with Rooker and has all but earned an MLB roster spot until he shows otherwise (I'm basically writing off all 2020 performances because there are so many crazy, unexplained oddities in individual performances).
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think anyone here is crazy enough to measure Garlick's worth over Kirilloff but bench guys are needed and if it comes to one or the other sitting around and doing nothing five days a week, I choose Garlick. As for Rooker, the picture gets a lot muddier if you compare him to Kirilloff. Previous MiLB performances are pretty outdated at this point but Rooker hit quite well in the upper minors (~.850 OPS) while Kirilloff scuffled (~.750 OPS, largely due to injury but the numbers are still there) and Brent has a lot more experience facing higher calibre pitching. Rooker is a lot older and likely closer to his peak self as of today. And, to be blunt, the team probably doesn't care as much if Rooker receives inconsistent playing time at the MLB level while they're more focused in on Kirilloff's development arc. I can see some pretty legitimate arguments for keeping Kirilloff in the minors for now without even factoring in service time.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Zero postseason wins certainly matter but the fact that it matters doesn't mean there's a correlation between the current team's hitting approach and their previous postseason failure. I'm as frustrated as anyone by this postseason drought (and moreso than most, I'd wager, given how I've been running a Twins-based website for damned near the entire drought) and while we all want to see wins, there isn't an easy solution that fits a simple narrative. The Twins pitching failed in the 2019 postseason (along with their defense, woof). The Twins pitching succeeded in the 2020 postseason (despite their defense, woof again). In the end, it's five consecutive games of underperformance by some/all of the team and there's no silver bullet to be found, the Twins just need to freakin' PLAY BETTER BASEBALL. How do the Twins get there? Hard to say but it's not as simple as "hit differently", especially in the context of March 2021 when games don't even matter.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Broxton has played in parts of five MLB seasons so I don't see any possible way he could have options remaining. I didn't pay attention to the transaction wire when the Twins picked him up but he's almost certainly a FA.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I generally agree but the current Kirilloff situation shares little in common with what the Cubs did to Bryant. Kirilloff played scrimmage games against the same pitchers all of last season, excluding a single postseason game, and unsurprisingly seems rusty as a result. The Twins also have Rooker, who appears to be more ready in the here and now, though has a lower upside than Alex. Whereas the Cubs blatantly held back Bryant for service time considerations and everyone knew it.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Rooker is also a lot older, has a full season at AA, half a season at AAA, and played a handful of MLB games before getting injured last season. Kirilloff certainly has a (much) higher ceiling than Rooker but there are plenty of reasons to go with Brent to open the season.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Going into Spring Training, I suspect the Twins were leaning away from Kirilloff making the roster and him not hitting certainly doesn't help his case, though I'm not sure how much it hurts, either. All in all, I suspect the default plan was for Rooker to make the roster over Kirilloff. It's hard to keep them both on the same 26-man, at least to open the season. And Alex probably hasn't changed any minds in that regard, factoring in his lack of hitting or not. Which is too bad because with the AAA season pushed back, it means he won't be getting the reps he needs (along with everyone else who needs reps after not playing in games that matter since September of 2019).
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m not “attached” to Kepler an any way except that he’s a better player, by a country mile, than Garlick. You said it yourself, 27 at-bats. In spring training. I just don’t get how people fall into the same trap every March. I’m happy Garlick has hit well, it’s certainly better than the opposite. But, ultimately, it means close to nothing in terms of making a baseball decision to open the season.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yikes, no. Spring training stats don’t correlate to regular season success. Say it with me. Of course, if the Twins are convinced Garlick is the best option based on what they see outside a box score, keeping him is the right decision. But the box score *does not matter*.
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