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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If you're trying to patch a problem on the MLB roster, there comes a time where "rehabilitation project" is not a phrase you're interested in pursuing. Listen, I'm not some huge fan of JR Murphy. I don't think his ceiling is very high... But we said similar things about Plouffe and Dozier in the past. What Murphy does bring to the table is stability and a short track record of success. Will it turn out to be a good move for the Twins? Well, I'm not sold on the move so I'm skeptical but I'm not going to blast the trade much, either. In a talent-for-talent swap, it was a pretty fair deal. Now the rest will be played out on the baseball diamond and we'll find out whether the Twins' or Yankees' scouts were smarter. But Bethancourt isn't even an option. This is 2016 and the Twins are trying to win. In 2013 or 2014, yeah, you go after a Bethancourt but you don't rely on that guy to fill your 25 man roster when your starting catcher is Kurt-friggin-Suzuki.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Bethancourt hit AA as a 20 year old. Murphy hit AA as a 21 year old. You're talking up Bethancourt's .840 AAA OPS while downplaying Murphy's .734 MLB OPS. In essence, you're blaming Murphy for not getting demoted. As a 21 year old, Bethancourt repeated AA. Murphy played part of the season in AA. For all intents and purposes, they put up identical numbers (Bethancourt had a slight advantage in OPS, well within any kind of margin of error). You're acting like Bethancourt is some raw 20 year old and Murphy is 30 years old. Murphy is 25, Bethancourt 24.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm still not entirely sold on the Hicks/Murphy trade and it surprised me how quickly Ryan moved this offseason but I can't fault the guy for locking down the most problematic position for the Twins as quickly as possible. He's getting hammered for moving too quickly at catcher - a notoriously difficult position to fill - but is also getting hammered for not moving quickly enough at reliever - the easiest position to fill. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Ryan had already shored up the bullpen. I'd also feel a lot more comfortable if people were more consistent with their arguments.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Bethancourt MiLB OPS: .694 Murphy MiLB OPS: .733 John HIcks MILB OPS: .734 Bethancourt MLB OPS: .527 Murphy MLB OPS: .685 I'm not saying Murphy will have a better career than Bethancourt but your schtick of railing on every single decision Ryan makes is getting old, Dave. There's a reason Bethancourt was traded for a song. He's a former decent (not great, just decent) prospect who has fallen on hard times. He's still relatively young (but so is Murphy) so there's hope he turns it around but he's a project, not an MLB player you rely on going into the season.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Inversely, you could say SD moved too late, possibly in the same fashion Ryan may have moved too late with Plouffe. Play cute games, talk about how much you love a player, and say you're not going to trade him... Well, sometimes, you get burned as other teams take your word for it and move on to other targets.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Losing Michael will sting a bit. He has really turned it around the past two seasons.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, yeah. He's better than Stauffer.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    If he's the fifth option and the Twins don't allow him to block younger, better players, it's an acceptable move. Don't really care for it but I won't get too upset, either.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    This is one of the areas where Ryan's conservative nature really hurts him, in my opinion. The 6/7th inning guys shouldn't start with mediocrity. Fien is a mediocre reliever. Guys like Nick Burdi or Alex Meyer aren't going to get the call to Minnesota and become the closer or 8th inning guy overnight. They're going to start in a lesser role and work their way forward in the pen. A guy like Fien blocks higher upside players from getting to the Majors quickly and testing their ability to compete. I see virtually no upside here and marginal downside. Mostly, I think it's pointless. Though if Ryan doesn't hesitate to release Fien or trade him the moment the Twins have a better option, Casey is a fine safety net.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's a fair argument, I'm just not ready to lose Kepler or Berrios. Berrios is the team's only legit hope for a front line starter and I like Kepler better than either Rosario or Hicks (I may have even traded Rosario before Hicks). Anyone else in the system is fair game, IMO... But the problem is that no one else in the system is far enough along in their career and/or good enough to bring back a truly talented catcher. Maybe you can make a case for Gordon but I don't see it yet.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm glad they didn't tap into the farm, as any competent catcher is going to cost Kepler or Berrios. I think both will be better than Hicks, possibly as early as this season. That's why I wanted to roll the dice on Wieters. It's not that I liked Wieters so much, it's that I hated the price of everyone else (not including Murphy, who never even crossed my mind).
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see it happening without an injury. Rosario is a given. Arcia needs to be on the roster. Buxton has both MLB and AAA time. Then comes Kepler. I don't see Max jumping over the guys in front of him to open the season, though I think we could see him relatively early in the season (May) if one of the other guys is struggling.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Exactly. I'm much more concerned with what Murphy does in Target Field than what Hicks does in Yankee Stadium.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If we're talking about platooning Hicks, there's no reason not to be bullish on this trade. A young cost controlled catcher > A short side platoon corner outfielder The hope is that Hicks figures out RHP, not that he's a 150 PA platoon player. If you think he's a permanent platoon guy, Murphy is more valuable to the Twins.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I hold out hope for two things: 1. He flew through the MiLB system, especially considering he's a catcher. There's possibly some upside left in there. 2. He hasn't received consistent playing time. Maybe some of that latent upside will emerge with more regular plate appearances. But overall, I'm underwhelmed with the trade. I think it's a relatively close swap of matching talent but it's not the direction I wanted to see Ryan take the team this offseason.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Statistical noise made to support a negative view of the trade (and this is coming from someone who doesn't care for the trade). Murphy has roughly 140 PAs both at home and on the road. Too small a sample to matter. He has almost identical XBH numbers at home and on the road. Yankee Stadium isn't helping him there. The difference is BA-driven. He has a ~.070 BABIP advantage at home. That's just luck. I see troubling numbers with that BABIP but the home/road splits are statistical noise in a SSS.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Not the route I would have taken but let's face it... Hicks is likely to be a role player himself. His troubles against RHP aren't likely to go away. But overall, meh.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, I think you're right. I was thinking 2011 for some reason.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    A few things here: 1) Different scouting director, different GM. To expect the same process isn't sound analysis. 2) I've heard - albeit second or third hand - that many of the Twins' scouting reports on Nishioka were not positive. I have no idea what the hell happened there but I'm not sure it was the fault of scouts.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    It's pointless to compare them. They're not even from the same country and league, never mind their wildly different performances, swings, and player profiles. They weren't signed by the same GM and they weren't scouted under the same director. We may as well compare Joe Mauer and Chris Herrman. At least they once played the same position. There's reason to be concerned about anyone who comes out of the KBO. That has absolutely nothing to do with Nishioka.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    If I'm Milwaukee, I start the conversation at Berrios and don't dip below Kepler + Gonsalves. That's a realistic trade scenario, not the gibberish being spouted in this thread.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Except for one thing: Why would the Brewers want Plouffe? They're on the cusp of a rebuild, especially if they trade Lucroy. The idea is nonsensical.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Any player that has a 40+ WAR career is a resounding draft success.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    He's definitely better than Boone, which is why I'm not entirely against the idea. But he's a pretty significant risk.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Given the market, I can't see the Twins trading for a decent catcher without giving up Kepler and/or Berrios based on the quality of the trade target. I could swallow losing Kepler but not Berrios. It all depends on what the other team wants. And let's say the Brewers want Kepler + Gonsalves for Lucroy. At that point, giving up money + pick for Wieters seems like a pretty damned good deal, as Lucroy has the same question marks surrounding him. I don't want AJ. He's due to completely fall off a cliff at a moment's notice and his defense is already terrible. Salty is an interesting flyer but there's a good chance he's cooked. The Twins could easily enter 2016 in the same situation they were in 2015.
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