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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, their short-term valuation is bonkers. If I hadn't recently put money into high-risk shares of Fitbit (the market is needlessly down on them right now) and Square (they're a big risk but I like their 10+ year potential), I'd double-down on Apple. They seem to be a lock to gain back at least 10-15% once the market rights itself. My hope is Apple fights their recent downturn by upping their dividend yield. As someone who wants to move more to dividend stocks (I'm overly weighted in high-risk stocks right now), that'd be a lure to keep me in the stock long-term. God knows Apple has the profits and on-hand cash to do it.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    This dip is nonsensical. Apple's financials are insanely strong. They have enough money in the bank to buy about 75% of the shares of Microsoft, for crying out loud. Their long term outlook has question marks but the market has been punishing them for a full year as Apple continues to break its own records quarter after quarter. It's as if investors are saying "you're no longer growing at a 15% rate YoY so now we're going to punish you as if that growth never happened at all". At some point people will pull their heads out of their asses and the stock will self-adjust.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't own Under Armor but Facebook had at really good day for me.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    If you want a laugh, look what the market did to Amazon today. +$52 per share during trading -$82 per share after hours The market is silly and stupid.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    They are. I'm not sure why you received an email using that wording.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Great article, Nick. I'm disappointed with the offseason thus far. When the Twins were a 66 win team, I didn't really care about payroll. Pick up a few scrapheap/reclamation guys and expect to be bad. Get that draft pick and wait for the farm to build the team into a legitimate contender. As the farm approaches maturation, pick up a guy here and there so you're ready to contend when the youngsters take the field. Well, I didn't agree with some of the ways the Twins chose to get to that point but they got there, posting an 83 win season in 2015. Well, good! But now is the time to start building a contender. The Twins don't have to go for broke and Park was an interesting acquisition. Not the one I would have lobbied for but an interesting acquisition. But come on, not addressing the bullpen in a meaningful fashion? Yuck. Now is the time to find role players and the Twins badly need a role player in the pen. Next season, Jepsen comes off the books so signing a bullpen arm for 2-3 years is no big deal. I don't need a $130m payroll but I expect the team to spend what it takes to stay on the gas. That includes at least a few million to acquire a legit bullpen arm.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    This is the overall piece, BTW.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope, it was intentional. Everyone knows Paul is a lefty. (really though, it was done because a right-handed catcher didn't work in the composition of the overall drawing... his back would have been turned to the viewer)
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    If you say so. I look at the Tigers and see an old team. Old teams often underperform. If that's an unreasonable narrative, so be it.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, sure... But there are very few 2011 Twins in baseball. Things went badly for the 2015 Tigers but the 2011 Twins were a colossal train wreck. If something could go wrong, it did, and in spectacular fashion. That's why the 2015 Tigers won 11 more games than the 2011 Twins.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Fangraphs projected the Tigers to win 84 games in 2015, I believe. *shrugs* I don't put much stock in projections. For young teams, there are crazy variables that cannot be accurately measured. For old teams, there is a higher probability one or more older players won't just underperform, a few might get injured and miss most/all of the season. Projections can estimate Cabrera will miss, say, 10 games but they certainly can't project he'll miss 120 because he's now 33 years old and not very athletic. I give younger teams the benefit of the doubt and older teams the opposite. The Twins are a young-ish team, the Tigers are not. The Twins have a lot of upside in young players both in MLB and on the farm, the Tigers do not. The Twins have wiggle room for guys like Berrios/Kepler to arrive and dominate should someone falter (in the fashion of Duffey, who basically saved 2015 for the Twins). The Tigers have to hope and pray a bunch of established veterans stay on the field because there's little untapped upside on the team and no help to be found from the farm should one or two players go off the rails.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I feel like I'm having a Groundhog Day moment. I'm just going to cut and paste my thoughts on the Tigers from February 2nd, 2015: Second verse, same as the first.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I've said multiple times the Tigers might be good if things go right... But I don't believe things will go right for a team with that many 30-somethings and little help on the farm to back it up. Hence my skepticism that they'll be significantly better than they were in 2015. Will they have better luck than 2015? Sure, probably. Will it matter once you factor in the age of their best players and the loss of Price and Cespedes? Of that I'm not so sure. I don't think the Tigers will be a terrible team but I think aging will chip away at their win total through regression and/or injury.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, so their big acquisitions offset a 74 win team's offseason losses. And then we're back to talking about whether a handful of 32-37 year old players will have bounce-back seasons or even maintain their 2015 production...
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't say "everything will go wrong", I said "it's unlikely everything will go right when you're banking on that many 30-somethings". If performance is neutral for both teams, I expect the Twins to be a handful of wins better than the Tigers (let's say 3-4 wins) because they're relying on a bunch of mid-20s players to improve, not a bunch of mid-30s players to bounce back or sustain past performance. Things "not going right" for the Twins could mean Sano still posts an .800 OPS and Buxton gets a bunch of OF time and they stall out in the 78-80 win range. Things "not going right" for the Tigers could mean they repeat last year's 74 win total. Over the course of a season, having guys like Berrios/Kepler/Burdi/Meyer as fall-back options can make a huge difference, just as Duffey made a huge difference in 2015.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Unlike Nick, I'm bearish on the Tigers, just as I was bearish on them in January of last year. Could they be decent? Sure, they certainly have the talent... But man, it's going to not only require a few 30-something guys to rebound, it's going to require a few more 30-something guys to sustain last year's performance level. I think that's a stretch. While they made a few good acquisitions this offseason, is it enough to offset the combined 7.5-ish WAR they lost in Cespedes and Price? I'm... Skeptical, to put it mildly. I don't think the Tigers are a terrible team (sub-70 wins) but I think they'll struggle to reach 75 wins unless everything goes right... And, like I said earlier, expecting everything to go right on a team full of 30-somethings is a tall order.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh, yes. Same here. But Disney is a small dividend stock and I plan to hold on to it for at least five years so whatever.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a good plan and I was *this close* to doing just that in 2013; made a short sale offer on a house but the bank foreclosed on it before anyone alerted them a short sale offer was in place (mind you, there was a 3-4 month gap between these two events... why'd we bail out these clowns again?). Thankfully, it didn't happen because I don't have the time to manage a rental property on top of all the other crap I do but if you have the time, it's a good way to go.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    High fives, Mike. I'm in on Disney, Netflix, and Amazon. Amazon and Netflix in particular. Patience is really the key with the market, IMO. I sat on a stagnant Amazon around $300 per share for over a year and then the damned thing doubled in 8-10 months.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    If I was to invest in a stock right now, it'd be Apple. The market's valuation of them is nonsensical and their P/E is absurdly low. It'd be a good idea to get into them before their quarterly report in a week or so.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm getting killed. I've lost over 20% of my market value in the past 6-8 weeks. I've aggressively invested in individual stocks over the past few years. Had 70% gains overall, now down to about 35% gains. Oh well. All my stocks are long-term investments with the exception of Apple, which is in freefall for no good reason. But they pay a decent, if underwhelming, dividend so I'm not sure whether I'll sell next time they appear to peak or hold on to them indefinitely. But man, Netflix has been killllllllling it for me. Invested in them 13 months ago.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Meatsauce is a personality from KFAN.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    You can't honestly believe Mauer - a guy who played catcher for ten seasons - didn't play hurt. Every catcher plays hurt or they wouldn't play after the first few weeks of ST.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Tony O is a comparison but it's not a particularly good comparison. Oliva played right field. That's hardly a demanding position. Mauer played the most demanding position and played it well. Oliva had three batting titles. How many RF/DH have batting titles? Dozens? Mauer also has three batting titles. No other American League catcher has a batting title in 115 years of play. The last NL catcher to win the title did it before the end of WWII. Will Mauer make the HoF? I don't know. Should Mauer make the HoF? Yeah, probably. He wasn't only elite at the position for a decade... In that decade, he was one of the top two or three catchers of all time. That's strong consideration - if not outright election material - for the Hall.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    How have I never read this article before now? Great read. Not only does it highlight just how good Mauer was behind the plate, it talks extensively about Carter, another guy who rarely gets the respect he deserves.
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