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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    A fair rebuttal. One can't go a week without hearing a Chicken Little voice an opinion. Sooner or later one of them will be right. I still don't have a lot of faith in the short-term market, though.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I think rough times are on the horizon, which is why 85-90% of my 2015 investments went into dividend stocks. I'll make money while the market stumbles around.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    This is what I'd like to see happen with Polanco. Unless a team out there really wants him and offers big value. Then I may trade the guy.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed on both counts.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Sometimes, getting too amped up to prove you should be there can be destructive. There is plenty of time to evaluate Nolasco, there's no need to put too much emphasis on his performance yesterday (and I'm saying this as a person who doesn't like Nolasco, not even a little bit).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. Different strategies for different needs.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, almost all my stocks are back in the black, if only slightly. Except Tesla. I've taken a beating on Tesla, though I suspected that could happen going into the stock. Between their aggressive expansion and plummeting oil prices, they're in a difficult spot in the short- to mid-term. But Tesla is a ten year stock for me so whatever.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm wary of any Vince Coleman comp because the dude was greased lightning. He stole 407 bases his first four years in MLB, which makes any WAR comp... Difficult. In one season, Coleman posted a 3.0 oWAR despite hitting to the tune of a 91 OPS+. But if we're talking bat, that may be a fair comp to Buxton's floor.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I fully expect Park to struggle for up to half a season before making an adjustment, provided he's capable of making a successful adjustment.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    One thing I really like about Escobar is that it seems like he's always clowning on something. His Jumbotron video, his general demeanor, he just seems like a bit of a joker. It has nothing to do with his play on the field but I have to believe that has some positive impact in the clubhouse. And it's fun to watch.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I could just as easily compare Park to a Cuban hitter and come up with the same (non) answers. He's had all of three plate appearances. How he looked his first day on the job is kinda irrelevant, especially when steeped in a negative comparison of a wildly different player. Park was a risk, we all know it. He's also a comparatively cheap risk.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Never mind the fact that Nishioka didn't strike out that often, roughly once every six times he went to the plate.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    *looks around* Nope, I didn't say anything of the sort but I'm not terribly worried about Dozier. He could regress but I think it's more likely he continues posting the ~.750-ish OPS he has been posting since he adjusted his approach/swing 1900 plate appearances ago. No one should be off the table if the return improves the team. It's unlikely the team will be improved by trading Brian Dozier. Maybe this July, that changes... Maybe it changes next November. Dunno, but I see little reason to force the issue today. Right now, second base is one of the few positions on the team with an above-average player and few question marks.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, that was the exact statement I disputed.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Escobar is in a very different position, though... His increase in performance directly coincided with an increase in playing time in two consecutive years. With that said, I do not expect Escobar to come anywhere near an .800 OPS in a full-time role. I'd be thrilled with .750, very happy with .730. And he shouldn't be in a leadoff role, not with that OBP... But the Twins have some pretty bad leadoff options right now.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    More important but not far more important. Polanco's AA/AAA OBP was about .030 higher than Dozier's MLB number. Dozier's MLB SLG was about .060 higher than Polanco's AA/AAA number. One guy did it in the minors. The other guy did it in MLB. The MLB guy is the better hitter. I don't even see how this is an argument.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Either way, you're removing Dozier and adding Polanco to the lineup. The offensive gain/loss is the same no matter how you rotate the players around the diamond. And why does Dozier need to be at the top of the order? Is this an appeal to the old (I believe it was Batgirl) Gardenhire parody book and its chapter titled "Play Second, Bat Second"? And I don't understand the point of even bringing up what Brian Dozier was doing at age 22. It's irrelevant to 2016. If you want me to admit that Dozier is not great at the top of the lineup, well, I agree. His bat plays much better down the lineup (5-6 would be my preferred destination for him). Regardless of lineup order, as of today Brian Dozier has a better bat than Jorge Polanco. I don't see how this statement can be challenged.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    This is an absurd statement. If Polanco has a better bat, why has his MiLB OPS been lower than Dozier's MLB OPS over the past two seasons? It's possible Polanco will have the better bat in the future, maybe even the near future... But right now, he does not have the better bat.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    "Sell high" should only be referenced if at least one of the following criteria is met: 1. The team has no expectation of winning enough baseball games to matter 2. The team has a viable replacement at the position who can step in and won't sacrifice (multiple) wins in the short-term Neither applies to the 2016 Twins. Maybe in July of this season, that changes and we all feel more comfortable about Polanco's defense and bat. But right now, not so much. Over the past two seasons, Brian Dozier has posted a .757 OPS. Jorge Polanco hasn't posted a number that high since he was in Ft. Myers.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    John, did you catch the velo on Hughes' fastball today?
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sorry to pick on you but this is a pretty tired argument. Yes, Nick Gordon could have a piano fall on him tomorrow. He could have his leg bitten off by a shark. He could suffer a career-ending injury via soda machine. With that out of the way, a reasonable floor is futility guy. I have no problems projecting a guy who looks to have few flaws (but few stellar assets as well) to a part-time MLB role at some point in the future. Maybe he sticks for one year. Maybe he sticks for a dozen like Jamey Carroll. The only problems I have with use the "floor" is when respected sites like FanGraphs give a guy like Alexis Tapia a "floor" of "Kevin Jepsen". Wait, what? So his floor is "above average reliever" even though he hasn't really pitched above A ball? No, man, no. That's just ridiculous. But using "floor" as a substitute for "reasonably negative projection that doesn't involve something disastrous happening" is a perfectly fine way to use the word in the context of baseball prospects.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'm not sold Gordon can post an .800 OPS at any level, though it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree, not cut and dry but I believe Gordon still has the advantage, as he doesn't have any glaring flaws in his game. Polanco has gone from "question marks about defense" to "not likely to be an MLB shortstop" in the past couple of years and Vielma can't hit a lick at any level. Those are big hurdles to overcome. Gordon, while unspectacular thus far, has no such issues.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely... But we're talking about a lanky 19 year old kid with ~750 PAs who drastically improved as the season progressed. There's some upside in Gordon, only time will tell how much.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, I understand that... But it's possible, maybe even likely, that Gordon improves as much or more than the other guys in the system. It's possible he becomes a very good defensive SS who posts a .750 OPS in the majors. In today's game, that's a top five shortstop.
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