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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm in no rush to extend Gibson but I'm not sure he has peaked yet, either. He showed flashes of having strong #2 upside last season before regressing back into #3/4 territory. It's possible this is as good as he will get but it's also possible he's better than his 108 ERA+ last season. While Kyle is on the old side because of the college draft slot and TJ surgery, he only has 425 IP in the majors (and only 370 MiLB IP, his arm is fresh for a 28 year old). It's possible, maybe even likely, he has a little projection left in him. It's a risk. Do you wait and extend Gibson to see what kind of pitcher he projects to be in his early 30s or do you try to grab him now while the grabbing is good? Me, I'd punt for at least a season. I see no reason to fall over myself to secure what appears to be a middling starter, a guy with a TJ surgery already under his belt.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree the Twins' bench choices have been a source of aggravation over the years, that was (mostly) on Gardy. I'm cautiously optimistic Molitor may take a different tack once he stretches his wings a bit and becomes more comfortable as a manager.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, sure. We agree on that, obviously... But I cringe every time I see someone post Nolasco's Minnesota FIP as proof of anything (I believe someone else in the thread used the number, not you). He was a terrible pitcher in 2014. Terrible. It wasn't luck-related. He was just bad.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not saying metrics should necessarily change, only pointing out there are outliers (usually in the direction of "terrible") where the metrics shouldn't be used (or at least taken with a grain of salt). For the vast majority of players, they're useful. For a few really crappy players, they normalize things and make those terrible players look better.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Very true but one of my biggest problems with commonly-used advanced metrics is that they fail to acknowledge some things aren't luck-based. It's hard to normalize a pitcher who gives up frozen ropes all over the field. See Nolasco, Ricky. His 2014 wasn't unlucky; he was an awful pitcher. Hitters didn't squeak through a hit or two, they were squaring up on him and drilling the ball. But your point about BABIP is correct, my point is more about SLG and that normalizing some performances make them less accurate, not more. Ricky deserved every bit of that 5.30 ERA in 2014.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Milone is far from an awful pitcher. He has roughly three seasons of average ERA. No, he's not a sexy strikeout guy but he gets the job done. He's a useful piece as a fifth starter, I merely wish the Twins had better 1-4 guys.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Arcia has an MLB OPS+ of 104. He has shown he can hit MLB pitching. People are too down on him for his terrible 2015 season and forgetting the solid hitter he was before last season. And Buxton profiles as a wildly different hitter. He's right-handed (and therefore less prone to ugly L/R splits), is lightning-quick, and has better plate discipline. The two players don't share much in common and that's not even bringing up their defensive differences. Even if Buxton stumbles at the plate, much of his value comes from baserunning and defense. Arcia has to hit (and hit a lot) to have value.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh, yes. 30% of ALL balls in play end up with a runner on base. There are literally millions of data points to prove it.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Less than 48 months after the fact, it's hard to envision this draft going better for the Twins. You have two elite prospects in Buxton and Berrios, an intriguing starter in Duffey, and a handful of wildcards in Walker, Chargois, Melotakis, etc. So much talent in that list. So much.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It's my opinion Nolasco isn't competing against any of those guys anyway. Are the Twins really going to put Alex Meyer in a mop-up role? Burdi? Those guys will slot into the sixth or seventh inning roles. Their talent demands it. Whereas it makes all the sense in the world to slot either Nolasco or Milone into a mop-up role. It keeps them somewhat stretched out to spot start or take the fifth rotation spot the moment a guy falters or gets injured.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I believe Arcia makes the roster unless something truly bizarre happens. The same goes for Santana. I suspect the Twins are positioning him to be a super-utility guy, which is why they're playing him all over the diamond. In fact, I think the Twins bench is almost a given: Arcia Santana Murphy Nunez The only question in my mind is who gets the fifth spot (which is likely to be the starting CF position). Is it Buxton? Santana? Sweeney? And Buxton almost surely has the job by June 1st anyway.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, they're kinda mandatory, actually. A pitcher has very little control over the ~30% of batted balls that result in a runner standing safely on base. Less batted balls in play, less runners on base. There's a very high correlation between missed bats, strikeouts, and pitcher success.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's not uncommon to see a pitcher throw one batter all fastballs and then two batters later, only throw breaking balls. Obviously, that's not a viable regular season game strategy. Just like hitters, pitchers are getting their feel back for the game and we don't really know their status until ST is nearly over (and by that time, SSS noise makes the data largely irrelevant).
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Listening on the radio, he's been throwing strikes though I'd love to hear a velo reading on his starts (even though it may not tell us much). But, those will come soon enough. Right now, I don't know if we should be concerned with him not missing bats... It's still so early in the spring that not all pitchers, particularly veterans, are trying to miss bats. Each guy has his own routine and throwing heat that misses bats may not be a priority for Hughes at the moment. He could be doing a dozen things: working on a pitch, tuning command, setting his mechanics, etc. If he's not missing bats after March 20th, then it's time to show some concern. By that time, pitchers will be preparing for regular season games and will be mixing and matching pitches more like they would in a regular game.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Duffey's not a lock but Molitor said he was the favorite going into Spring Training.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the earliest he is traded is mid-July and even that's unlikely. If Nolasco builds value, it's likely it won't come until the offseason.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't be so sure of that, as Molitor has stated Duffey is a virtual lock for the rotation.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how I feel as well. I'm worried tired vets will block upside with mediocrity.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I won't cry a river if Berrios is in Rochester in August because Nolasco has a 3.00 ERA.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I was hoping they'd move Santana around the diamond and it appears they're doing precisely that. Even if he doesn't hit a bunch, that kind of flexibility is useful as a 24/25th man, particularly given Santana's speed.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Arcia's best chance to receive playing time revolves around Park struggling to adapt to MLB pitching, particularly breaking balls. Which isn't a knock on Park, it shouldn't surprise anyone if it takes him some time to adjust to a new country, new league, and better pitchers.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm (incredibly) skeptical Arcia will ever be a plus outfielder. I'd be thrilled with "competent". His struggles against lefties is very real and very common amongst young (and many old) left-handed hitters. But that's not a death sentence... 70% of MLB pitchers put their glove on their left hand.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    We just found Sano's pitcher for this year's Derby.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a bit more complex than that or every pitcher who throws 95mph would be in MLB, striking out hitters left and right. Maybe Tonkin needs to take a mph off his fastball to get more movement on it. Maybe that causes Tonkin to lose the feel for the pitch, making that adjustment useless overall. Maybe he needs to change his grip but a grip change causes wildness that he can't seem to overcome. There could be many reasons his fastball is straight and there isn't a magic "fix it" button that turns him into a quality MLB pitcher just because he throws hard. Velocity can't be taught and that gives Tonkin a leg up over many other pitchers vying for MLB jobs. On the other hand, velocity in itself doesn't guarantee success. There are mechanical, grip, arm slot, etc. factors and maybe the Twins have tried them all but none of them seem to work for Michael. It's all too easy to lay blame with the coaching staff for any problems a pitcher may have but that ignores the fact there is a human being throwing those pitches who may be unable or unwilling to learn what is being taught.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    LaTroy Hawkins once had a straight 95+ mph fastball. He did okay for himself. Velocity matters but a pitcher can't get by on velocity alone. I haven't given up on Tonkin but I don't have much faith in his development, either. Plenty of spring left to evaluate the guy.
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