Brock Beauchamp

1. I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt, I'm merely saying "the proof is in the pudding". Results will dictate the success/failure of the trade. 2. You're still trying to make the conversation about Terry Ryan, not JR Murphy.

I'm not going to participate in another Terry Ryan thread. Keep the subject on catchers, shall we? You didn't even bother to quote the second half of my post. We've been on the Terry Ryan merry go-round plenty of times already.

Most of those trades are ancient history and others didn't happen under the current GM's watch. Nolasco was a bust and Liriano was turned into Escobar before he walked into free agency. Those other deals were mostly bad but I'm more interested in what has happened the past 2-3 seasons, not what happened 8+ seasons ago. Ortiz and Young conversations are non-starters because they literally have nothing to do with the 2016 Twins. By all accounts Murphy is supposed to be decent behind the dish. The most likely outcome for both Hicks and Murphy might be bench role players. At that point, can we really criticize the trade? It's a fair talent swap: backup catcher for backup outfielder. If Hicks can't figure out righties, his value is marginal, and that's being generous. A guy who hits 70% of MLB pitchers at a sub-.600 clip is a bad baseball player, it doesn't matter how good he looks in the outfield.

I feel similarly. If Mauer can nudge his K rate back toward 10%, he probably has a handful of good seasons left in him.

I definitely have concerns about Murphy and really, I'll be thrilled if he's league average. Bonus points for anything better than that. The Twins gave up Aaron Hicks, an enigmatic but talented player to get this guy. If Murphy busts and Hicks flourishes in New York, that's a pretty damning indictment of the Twins' scouting and analytics system. If he succeeds, that's a pretty solid endorsement.

Same here, for the same reasons. I think they'll win 90 again.

Under. I think they jettison pieces in July and finish the season in full rebuild.

Under. One injury to Trout and they might struggle to win 70.

Sure, a hitter might see a small bump in BABIP from Yankee Stadium (and many hitters might see a small BABIP bump from the friendly confines of a home park) but not to the tune of 120 points. Maybe 5, 10, even 20 points. Not 120. That's just noise. No hitter can do that on a regular basis. Even David Ortiz, a guy who exploits the oddities of the Monster as well as anyone, has a BABIP only 60 points higher at home than the road. And Yankee Stadium doesn't have a feature as obvious or as easy to exploit as the Monster. Nothing close to it. No other team has a home stadium with anything as weird as the Monster.

Yeah, that's not a difficult decision.

Well, it's not... Unless you're arguing that JR Murphy has figured out a way to exploit a weakness and do things much more talented players can't seem to work out on their own.

Data noise, nothing more. Yankee Stadium isn't some BABIP haven.

He doesn't hit home runs so I'm not sure what Yankee Stadium has to do with anything. But the BABIP is a concern.

Disclaimer: I don't like May in the bullpen and would prefer to see him in the rotation. With that said, too many people are treating a half season of fWAR as gospel in this thread. Was May the Twins' best starter last season? Possibly. Does fWAR tell us he was the best? Eh, of that I'm not so sure. fWAR for pitchers has some oddities that bother me. After all, it's convinced Nolasco was above replacement level in both 2014 and 2015.

I'll go out on a limb with the over. I think their pitching delivers and they scrap their way into the 83 win range with the help of faltering Yankees and Orioles squads. Of course, 83 wins only gets them third in that division.

Because it's not even March 20th yet and he was injured for pretty much all of 2015? I dislike Nolasco as much as the next guy but half this forum has gone completely off the rails with their opinions on him. There is so little to be lost in roster flexibility by putting Nolasco in the long relief role and he provides modest spot starter upside.

Yes, because "head in the sand" is synonymous with "I refuse to wildly speculate without a lick of evidence to back up the statement".

If he's hitting RHP anywhere near .800, that's a no-brainer. You keep that guy, especially given the makeup of the current Twins roster. I'm worried he might struggle to hit .700, not .800. He has looked various shades of terrible for quite some time now.

Absolutely, which is why I wouldn't give him a long leash, just one more opportunity to make good on his talent. To me, the difference between Arcia and Benson is that Arcia smacked around MLB pitching for quite some time while Benson stumbled before he even reached the majors. Yeah, Arcia's offense was offset by his horrible defense but still, a bench bat/spot starter with his potential has value to a contending team. Like I said earlier, I'd shoot for 100 plate appearances and then reevaluate (and that evaluation wouldn't be entirely based on numbers, it'd be more about his approach and attitude).

Yep. He's a potent bat off the bench, something the Twins have been lacking for years. Really, I'm pretty happy with how the bench looks to start the season. A capable catching backup in either Suzuki or Murphy, a speedy futility guy in Santana, a classic bench guy with a decent bat in Nunez, and a potent bat-first guy in Arcia. That's a decent bench and if any of those players were better at baseball, they'd be starting. There isn't a black hole guy anywhere on that list; each player has a useful tool that can help the team win ballgames if used correctly.

Giving up on Oswaldo Arcia in March of 2016 is the kind of thing that has a high probability of biting the team in the ass... Not to the level of David Ortiz - that's extremely rare - but Oswaldo could easily turn into an .800 OPS guy if he sorts out a few relatively minor issues (which seem to approach-related, not any kind of physical deficiency). He should get at least 100 PAs before the team considers cutting bait with him permanently.

That bullpen is fierce. It's borderline unfair. With that said, I take the under because I'm skeptical their offense can deliver. Last season, A-Rod and Beltran posted roughly 1000 PAs of .830 OPS ball. Mark Texiera posted roughly 450 PAs of .900 OPS ball. Those three players are older than dirt. I expect regression across the board with at least one devastating injury mixed in. It's hard to recover from that kind of loss. I don't think they'll be way under 85.5, maybe 81-83 wins.

I agree. I'm not even looking for a strict platoon; I'd be happy with occasionally rotating guys in and out of the lineup as it suits the team's needs. Outside of Sano, no hitter on this team is so good they can't sit occasionally against a weak side starter. After we've seen Dozier fade down the stretch in two consecutive seasons, it's pretty obvious he could use more breaks in the schedule. Santana doesn't seem to have a real strong/weak side split so maybe Molitor should think about trimming Dozier down to 145-150 games this season. He's not a big dude and a little rest certainly isn't going to hurt his power swing. Rest him against RHP when it makes sense. I'm going to be disappointed if we see the same lineup roll out for weeks on end. This team has flexibility right now... No, it's not the ideal form of flexibility but it's flexibility none-the-less. Use it to your advantage. That means everybody whose first name isn't Miguel either rotates around the diamond or gets a break once every week or two based on pitcher matchup.

Well, in a roundabout way, I did. The guy who hits for power and doesn't miss the ball when he swings at it is going to provide plenty of sacrifice flies when presented the opportunity to do so.

I agree that Santana should start the season on the roster but batting average is basically useless to use in isolation, especially in the case of Danny Santana. Santana will never repeat his 2014 BABIP, which directly led to that 2014 batting average. Santana swings and misses a lot. He doesn't walk often. He's a flawed hitter who doesn't show the signs you want to see from a hitting prospect. Kepler, on the other hand, was damned near immaculate last year. He didn't swing and miss. He drew loads of walks. The guy has a refined approach Santana will never replicate. Oh, and Max profiles to hit for modest power as well. In a nutshell, he's everything Danny Santana is not as a hitter. Santana MiLB BA: .276 Kepler MiLB BA: .280 Well, those are similar, right? Well, maybe not so much... Santana MiLB OBP: .319 Kepler MiLB OBP: .362 Okay, these players aren't very similar at all. One guy thinks about taking a walk every so often, the other guy goes to the plate with the intent of making the guy on the mound throw pitches. Santana MiLB SLG: .399 Kepler MiLB SLG: .445 (and a whopping .531 last season) Yeah, these players are vastly different. The guy who makes the pitcher pitch also punishes the ball when the pitcher fails to execute. And the coup de grace: Santana MiLB SO: once every 5.47 PAs Kepler MiLB SO: once every 6.34 PAs (once every 7.65 PAs last season) This is getting ridiculous. The guy who makes pitchers pitch and tattoos bad pitches also hits the ball when he swings at it. He's looking like a damned fine hitter at this point. The other guy, maybe not so much. Batting average is a bad statistic in isolation. Kepler is a vastly superior hitter to Santana and trended up in a huge way last season. If Max gets the call to Minnesota, he needs to start every day. Danny Santana is utility fodder and the Twins should treat him as such (which it appears they are doing).