Brock Beauchamp

I find it extremely unlikely Buxton hits .215 this season. I don't understand the consternation over Byron's 2015 season. 21 years old, fighting off minor injuries, facing MLB pitching for the first time. In September when he was finally healthy again, he posted slightly better numbers with an OPS around .650. With his speed, tools, discipline, and a bit more experience under his belt, I'd be surprised if Buxton doesn't post something close to league average offensive numbers this season.

Yeah, I think that's a byproduct of one league scrapping it out with several good-to-mediocre teams while the other has a large gulf between good and bad.

Agreed.

Yeah, there were other options. Santana and Garza were available that offseason. I liked picking up a decent starter, was unsure why they chose Nolasco over the other guys. Though in all fairness, we still have no idea what a "good" Ricky Nolasco looks like. Ricky was coming off three consecutive 190+ inning seasons so we can't blame the Twins for choosing the guy who suddenly decided to turn injury prone.

Mike Bates wrote this article. Seth made a boo-boo while posting it so his name appears in the forums.

I think 4-5 years is reasonable. I believe the Astros required five, the Cubs four, and the Pirates six.

Well, the Twins were in a somewhat peculiar situation. They went from 94 wins to 99 losses in a season. They also had some promising youngsters who were a few years away in Arcia, Sano, Gibson, etc. That makes it easier to speed up the timeline back to competitiveness, as you have something in the system that should arrive before any of your high draft picks (as it turns out, Berrios and Buxton flew through the system so that worked out well). I suppose a target of 2015 was reasonable under those circumstances. The Royals and Pirates aren't really comparable. Moore was a bad GM for some time. He did a lot of dumb things and the Royals stumbled for a long time because of it. And IIRC, Huntington inherited an abysmal farm system. For obvious reasons, that's going to slow the timeline.

If you graduate as many players as the Twins did from 2013-2015 and still have guys like Walker and Thorpe outside your top ten, your system is doing okay for itself.

It's hard to say the Twins have been "fleeced" in the trade market. They've had a mixed run since Ryan returned to the helm. Span/Meyer hasn't worked out but that deal was a gamble and it's too early to give up on Meyer. Revere/Worley/May returned an abysmal Worley but it's likely May will easily outperform Revere when all is said and done (Revere has a 4.8 WAR since leaving Minnesota, May is already at 2.5). Liriano/Escobar has worked out nicely for the Twins. Hicks/Murphy, Jepsen/Hu, and a few other trades are still too early to call. Dunno, am I forgetting something? That track record is unspectacular but far from awful. If you want to make an argument they've been fleeced in the free agent market a bit too often, you'll get no arguments from me (and the article you reference in the other thread is about "acquisitions", not only trades). And even most of their free agent pickups haven't been terrible (non-Nolasco edition), they're just a result of the Twins being incredibly cheap (they received what they paid for with Correia, the problem was they didn't pay for someone better). If you only spend a buck fifty on someone, it's hard to complain that you only received a buck fifty in value from them.

A fair point on Buerhle. I was being lazy and didn't feel like referencing both WAR numbers. Still, the general point stands in my eyes. The Twins could have made several good moves but unless they spend big and hit on every move, they're still a very bad team. And if competitiveness hinges on being right 100% of the time, IMO it's a better idea to wipe the board clean and start anew. I'm not saying Markos' (or your) strategy can't work, I simply believe my strategy has a higher probability of working in the long run.

I mostly agree but the Twins were in a very difficult position after the 2011 season. Nearly every player on the roster was massively devalued going into that offseason. Sure, they could have done more (and better), but it was going to be ugly no matter what they did with the team. I can't do anything but shake my head about that 2011 season. The sheer number of injuries and bad performances is staggering. Did anyone other than Cuddyer make it through that season with a decent year?

Well, it's a bit more complex than that. Let me rephrase: Without the ability to spend your way out of a hole by picking up multiple elite free agent contracts in a 2-3 year window, it's extremely difficult to sustain a competitive team without strength on the farm. And the Twins had little strength in the high minors. And IMO, that's when it's time to pack it in and prepare to lose for awhile.

Many of his moves make sense both today and at the time it happened but without a cornerstone like Sanchez, how many games do the Twins really win? Buerhle is nice and all but he was a 3-ish win player at that point. By the time the prospects are ready (2015), he's on his way out of baseball with a 1 win season. My point isn't that the Twins did everything right - they certainly did not - it's that they were so bad that acquiring even 8-9 player wins (basically combining Buerhle, Hunter, and Span) only puts them in the mid-70s win range. And short of picking up multiple cornerstone players to the tune of $200m+ in overall contracts, that wasn't going to change. Buerhle is nice but he's just a bit better than rearranging deck chairs on those 2012/2013 squads.

I advocated that approach either after 2011 or some time early in the 2012 season. I wanted to see the Twins start dismantling the team because it was apparent they were going to be bad for awhile. But no, I can't specifically recall if I advocated this approach in 2011.

Possibly not but he's also using a fair amount of hindsight. Sure, the Sanchez signing would have been great but how do you choose that guy and is he even interested? Remember, the Tigers traded for Sanchez and he resigned with the team because he enjoyed Detroit. It appears he mostly ignored the FA market and took a reasonable deal that was probably worth less than he would have received on the open market. The Span deal is another example. It was considered a fair trade at the time but unfortunately, it hasn't panned out for the Twins. Couple the Revere trade and we're getting into a quite revisionist form of history. If the Twins have Span, do the Phillies demand him (probably offering more in the process) and ignore Revere? Remove one key element and we can't expect the same events to cascade into place quite so gracefully. And then Hunter. Yeah, he's a former Twin but does he sign with the team if it's coming off a 75 win season? He was old and knew the Tigers were his last shot at contention. It's easy to look back and say "I would have done this" but without context of everything else happening at the time, it's hard to take it too seriously. With that said, I like a lot of what Markos is saying and many of his moves are defensible, both now and in context of the situation when it happened (mostly his "don't do this" arguments)... But not all of it, particularly the biggest moves he mentioned. And without those big moves, the Twins are still a very, very bad team. I just glanced over the pitching FAs in 2012 and outside of Sanchez and Greinke, they were pretty much all failures.

That's my point, though. The Jays' high water mark was 86 wins. No matter which division you play, that's going to miss the playoffs the majority of the time. If you don't like the Jays comp, let's look at an ALC team that takes a similar approach to Toronto: the White Sox. Since winning the WS, their high water mark is 89 games, which earned them a 163 playoff and a quick exit from the postseason. They try to compete every year yet have one (bad) postseason appearance to show for it. The only mid-market team that seems capable of sustaining success is the Cardinals and they might be the most well-run franchise in baseball. For the majority of teams, I believe the ebb and flow approach gives you the best chance of going deep into the postseason.

While I agree that your plan is pretty sound and keeps the team "in contention", is that really a good thing? As we've seen with past Jays teams, hovering around .500 in perpetuity leads to some really uninspiring baseball. I would have taken almost the opposite tack you did. After 2011, I would have dismantled the team as thoroughly as possible. Stop spending money. Pick up flyers like Kazmir, Marcum, and hope you strike gold, fueling midseason trades. Stay away from the Correias and Pelfreys and other "warm bodies". Every move is about two things: being bad in the short-term and filling the minors with prospects. Basically, the Houston Astros approach. In year three, start picking up a few small pieces. In year four, pick up nicer pieces. I don't believe it's possible for a mid-market team to stay in contention for over a decade (and, by and large, the Twins had been contenders for a decade going into 2011). I believe there has to be an ebb and flow to how you treat the roster. If the team is bad, blow it up quickly and try to move the window of a rebuild to three years, not 4-5 years. Don't try to work around a depleted farm system in hopes you can win 85 games and sneak into the playoffs if everything breaks right, blow that **** up and try to patch together 3-4 season runs of 90+ wins.

Yeah, it's hard to imagine a situation where that worked out better for the Twins. It's unlikely Cuddyer brings back a consensus #10-15 prospect in all of baseball.

I'm not underselling May. I think he's a good pitcher with good upside but he simply does not have the stuff to be a real ace. It's likely May will have a better career than Meyer but Meyer has a better chance to become an ace. He has the nasty stuff to do it, he just hasn't put it together (and probably won't). May doesn't. He'd need a few more MPH on his fastball, a better breaking ball, etc. That's not a knock on May, a pitcher can be very good and very valuable without being an ace.

Thank you. Marcum was the name I was trying to remember earlier in the thread.

All valid points.

I see this said a lot but I can't really agree with it. If you're a team looking for mid-season help, how much more are you willing to give up for a Liriano, Morneau, or Willingham if the other team tacks on $3-4m? In my eyes, it's not much. Instead of getting the 14th best prospect, they offer up their 12th best prospect. On the other hand, the Twins just handed away $3-4m for a prospect who might be worth a handful of dollars more than the prospect they'd receive without giving up a dime. Sure, it's not my money and all that but that's a pretty bad deal for the Twins. They're handing away millions to get thousands in return. Now, this might work on occasion when a team is searching the couch cushions for mid-season cash but I suspect that situation arises infrequently. If it comes down to $2-3m and a late-season run, what owner isn't going to spring for that cash? It's likely they'll make it right back in fan attendance in August and September as everyone comes to watch a competitive team make a run at the postseason (never mind the increased ticket sales and revenue that bleed into the following season). This argument seems like a good idea in theory but I don't think it's quite that cut-and-dry in reality.

There was a slight upside guy available that year (who bombed spectacularly, IIRC), I simply can't recall his name. Someone out there probably remembers who it was. Those guys are always available and the Twins pursued none of them. If you want to pick up Correia and a flyer, that's okay, too... But going with non-upside guy when the team is expected to win 60-something games is a bad strategy because fans don't care if a team wins 61 or 68 games. If you're gonna be bad no matter what, roll the dice a few times. It's not like there's much to lose in that situation. edit: it's not who I was thinking of but Kazmir was available that offseason, I believe.

BTW, this article is fantastic and points out bad tendencies fans tout in losing seasons. When the Twins were really bad, I was also (mostly) fine with their spending. The only thing that was going to drag the team out of its sinkhole was prospects and lots of 'em. On the other hand, I hated the Correia signing. If your team is going to be bad, take risks. Instead of going after Correia - a known commodity whose ceiling is "I just threw up in my mouth a little" - go for someone like Brett Anderson (yes, the timeline doesn't match up, just fill in another player's name if you don't like the Anderson reference). An injured player with real upside. Worst case scenario, he stinks or doesn't play. Who cares? You're expected to suck anyway. Best case scenario, wow, he's really good! Keep him or trade him at that point, whatever. Finding a warm body is rarely the best solution in my eyes. Not only is a "warm body" unlikely to change the team's fortunes at all, it sucks to watch from a fan perspective. I'm not going to buy tickets to watch Kevin Correia pitch because he's Kevin ****ing Correia. Now to the present: I'm completely fine with the Twins avoiding elite relievers but that's due to years, not dollars. But for crying out loud, pick up somebody. I'm not a tough sell. Make it look like you're trying. Even if I disagree with any particular move - the Murphy trade and Park acquisitions are decent examples of this - I'll show some excitement that something happened and will look forward to the upcoming season. But it's really hard to rally behind nothing.

While I hate May in the bullpen, Berrios has a better chance of becoming an ace. Hell, I'd argue that Meyer has a better chance of becoming an ace. Trevor May has almost zero chance of becoming an ace. His ceiling is a very good #2 if everything breaks right. That's an extremely valuable pitcher - and one that should be in the rotation - but it's not an ace by any definition other than "the guy who starts on Opening Day". A Brad Radke-style "ace", that is.