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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    But isn't that the case with most systems? It's not as if even the best system has 3-4 #1/2 projectable pitchers in the pipeline. The Twins are certainly lacking can't-miss, top-end talent but there are intriguing names that might end up mid-rotation or better in the future: Enlow, Thorpe, Romero primarily. Gonsalves could also peak higher than most of us expect. Never underestimate a crafty lefty with decent stuff.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think ultimately some of the other guys in the high minors (Gonsalves, Littell, Enns, et al) end up somewhere around #4 starter range but we shouldn't count any of them quite yet, as they could all use a bit more seasoning in the minors and likely won't be on the Opening Day roster. And if Mejia and another one or two of those guys turn into #4 starters and no longer fit in the rotation, that's not a terrible problem to have. You dish off one of them to another team for a decent prospect and go on your merry way. A #4 starter with 4-5 cost-controlled seasons is not a turnip. Lots of teams need those guys on a yearly basis. You won't get a bunch for any of them but you'll certainly get a solid prospect with upside for one of them, probably a projectable guy in the low minors.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Tony Fiore. Ten wins, baby!
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think Jones is even in consideration, or at least he shouldn't be. If we're playing strictly by OF position, Mack is probably the best choice. If we open up to other corner OF spots, then we certainly need to talk about Allison. His three year peak was on par with Mack but he played *a lot* longer.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree, I'm just pointing out that he has done this before. I have modest expectations for Gibson and definitely wanted him back on the team in 2018.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Longevity should count as well. Mack was VERY good but only for 2-3 full seasons. He finished with around 2500 PAs in a Minnesota uniform. Even guys like Koskie and Jones, who weren't around long, still had 750-1000 more PAs than Mack while wearing a Minnesota uniform.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the White Sox are going to surprise, as much as that pains me to say. I think they'll bounce to 72+ wins. I also think the Twins are going to surprise, and challenge Cleveland for the division. The rest, meh, whatever. Kansas City is maybe a 73-74 win team if you squint. Detroit is... just bad.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, Arrieta has the added problem of coming off a down year, which is why I'm suggesting he consider taking a one-year deal and nobody else.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, under normal circumstances I would agree but he's one of four pitchers still unsigned on February 2nd and it appears he's not getting much in the way of interest. Taking a one year deal would probably get him snatched up immediately and he could try again next year under more favorable circumstances.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't mean to stick a pin in your balloon but here is what Gibson looked like for a pretty large portion of 2015: 8 GS, 47.0 IP, 3.64 ERA, 14 BB, 44 SO That's the time I thought Gibson had turned the corner because it's hard to "fake" strikeouts over a ten game stretch of starts. Maybe not so much.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Honestly, I'm now kinda leaning toward avoiding a Lynn or Cobb deal at this point (unless they can be had for a steal). I don't want either one on a four year deal. Two years? Sure, but that's unlikely to happen. Arrieta is a question mark but his upside is waaaaaayyy higher than either of those guys. If it came down to Gibson or Cobb/Lynn, I may roll with Gibson (knowing that May is in the mix, as are Gonsalves and Romero).
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm starting to wonder if the best thing for Arrieta might be a one year, make good deal (albeit at a very high number, like $25m). His fastball velocity was down in 2017 and his numbers reflected it. I'd pay through the nose to get one year of an Arrieta who's trying to prove that he's worth a 3-4 year deal, even though I'm not much of an Arrieta fan really.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how mid-market teams need to operate. It will sting to lose Dozier but that's a risk you need to take to keep payroll manageable and shore up other positions of need. Hopefully, Gordon posts another .750 OPS season and gets a late-season taste of MLB pitching. Then you're in a pretty good position to run Polanco/Gordon in the middle infield in 2019. But the Twins might keep Dozier. I don't know where I'd put the threshold to offer/decline a QO but it's probably in the .775 OPS range. I'd pay Dozier a lot of money to put up middling performance (hoping for a rebound) if he slides in 2018. Of course, that OPS number needs to be higher if Gordon goes nuts in Rochester and posts an .800+ OPS. If Gordon looks good/great, then you need to be confident Dozier will decline the QO. Overall, the Twins are in a pretty strong position here and I'm not worried about it.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that both Cobb and Lynn would be an upgrade to the rotation but how much of an upgrade is more difficult to judge. Whereas Darvish isn't only an upgrade, the only pitcher who could come close to his performance is Berrios and that would require a pretty big step forward from Jose. My point overall is that it's time to stop working (only) in the margins and begin to acquire players that make the team significantly better going forward. As I said, Lynn or Cobb are fine consolation prizes but I hope the Twins are aiming higher this offseason.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    My point isn't that Santana failed in the Wild Card game, it's that the Twins had to go to New York and play said Wild Card game and the reason they didn't play at home is because their pitching staff was well below average. I'd certainly prefer to see someone better than Santana pitch the first game of the postseason but mostly I'm concerned about the 30-33 regular season starts that player gets before the postseason.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    If now isn't the time to make a push, I'm not sure there will ever be a time to make a push. After this season, Dozier is likely gone. That's 3-5 wins you need to replace. Some of the core enters arbitration, which means the clock starts ticking on them as they become more expensive. And next offseason, Mauer comes off the books, which means a Darvish contract will almost entirely be absorbed by the removal of another contract.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, while Lynn/Cobb is a decent consolation prize for those who lose the Darvish sweepstakes, the Twins already have two pitchers capable of equal or better performance going forward (Santana, Berrios). And that combo didn't get the Twins out of the Wild Card game in 2017. I want a clear upgrade, not another guy who's just "good". Though I won't throw a fit if the front office signs a "good" pitcher, I'd simply prefer something better than that.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair, I'm certainly wary of the guy as well, but I think you're trying a little too hard to downplay his talent level. He's a very good pitcher and it's completely fine to believe he's not the $150m pitcher you want your hometown team to sign without digging into very SSS arguments to defend that opinion.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    You've built some really strange narratives around Darvish. 1. If the Astros (and other good teams) can just hit Darvish at will, why'd Darvish post 12 very good innings against Houston during the regular season and why was he so far above average overall? 2. Darvish had the 12th-highest K/9 rate in baseball last season among qualified pitchers (and he played most of the season in the AL). He absolutely has "go ahead, try to hit this" stuff. 3. He's not going to be paid like he's the best pitcher in baseball, he's just going to be paid very well and (likely) in line with his talent level. There's no way he gets $200m+ in a Kershaw, Greinke, or Scherzer level of contract.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yu Darvish, Wade Davis, and pretty much whomever else you wanted. And at that point, the Twins are one of the best teams in all of baseball.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    If all three pitchers go down with injuries that take them out of baseball for roughly the same amount of time, the timing of that injury should not be held against the pitchers whose "timing" was bad, nor should we reward pitchers whose "timing" was good. You don't choose when you get injured and if all three guys go down for roughly the same amount of time, it's just dumb luck if one of them misses one season while another misses almost two full seasons.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Definitely Darvish. The Twins have enough competent arms coming through the system and one or two of them might be better than Cobb/Lynn. It's unlikely the same could be said for Darvish.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It should be announced soon. We have a few names in the mix but are working out the details.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    But when it works, you get the Rangers bidding against themselves multiple times for the same player! (still one of my favorite baseball free agency moments)
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I've heard that this movie is really good, even more so by the last minute replacement. Ridley Scott and Martin Scorsese are basically my gods. Not only because they make good films but that they have the ability to keep their finger on what makes good entertainment well into their 70s. Ridley Scott just turned 80 years old, for ****'s sake. And Martin Scorsese made his first "kid's film" in his late 60s. It's amazing.
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