Brock Beauchamp

In the case of Buxton, I'd go as high with incentives that he'd make $35m, maybe even $40m, if he maxes out games played. And then I'd consider tacking on like $5m for an MVP award. Do whatever it takes to extend the guy, the upside is just too great. If Buxton maxes out his incentives, the team should not be anything but thrilled no matter how much they have to pay him.

Recently, I was doing some really boring work in the yard, mulling over how we may have watched the final game of Byron Buxton in a Twins uniform. I certainly hope that's not the case and will likely write a lengthy post about it another time but I'd put the odds of him being traded this offseason at no lower than 40%. As I kinda seethed over the idea of Buxton being traded, it led to me to start thinking of how many years were wasted before he turned into the beastly hitter he is today. That led me to start thinking about his predecessor, Aaron Hicks... and holy ****, the same thing happened to him, too! So then I started thinking about Carlos Gomez and... wow, the Twins wasted so much centerfield talent in the wake of losing Torii Hunter after the 2007 season. Carlos Gomez (2008-2009) So let's go back in time a bit... In the offseason leading up to 2008, we saw Torii Hunter sign with the Los Angeles Anaheim Angels of Angeles Anaheim and the Twins, worried about losing Johan Santana the following year, traded him to the Mets with the centerpiece being Carlos Gomez, their young centerfielder. The Mets had obviously rushed Gomez to the majors, as he posted just a 55 OPS+ in his age 21 season. The Twins, obviously feeling some pressure at the loss of Hunter, continued to throw Gomez out there every day and he continued to be very bad at hitting a baseball. There was some questioning of whether Gomez had any business in MLB and the Twins did him no favors. He ended his Twins career with the following line: Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2008-2009 MIN 290 963 892 130 221 39 12 10 87 47 18 47 214 .248 .293 .352 .645 73 314 8 11 10 3 0 Despite his otherworldly defense, Gomez was at best a mediocre player with the Twins. But then he was traded and posted the following line for his years in Milwaukee: Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2010-2014 MIL 623 2262 2047 322 547 102 24 79 245 145 30 136 521 .267 .324 .456 .780 110 934 39 43 22 14 4 Yikes. So, yeah, uh... this is only the beginning. Aaron Hicks (2013-2015) Fans expected Hicks to be TNGTCF (The Next Great Twins CenterFielder), washing the bad taste of Gomez in Milwaukee out of our mouths and returning us to the glory days of Puckett and Hunter. It didn't really work out for us this time, either. Hicks, fresh off a very good AA season in 2012, opened the 2013 MLB season as the Twins' starting centerfielder. This decision was also questioned at the time and the results ended up being Carlos Gomez Redux. It became so bad at one point in Hicks' Twins career that he gave up switch-hitting and didn't tell his coaches. No one seemed to have any clue what was going on, least of all Hicks. Over three seasons with the Twins, he posted this painful line: Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2013-2015 MIN 247 928 819 107 184 30 6 20 78 26 9 94 206 .225 .306 .349 .655 81 286 8 4 6 5 2 He bounced back and forth in the minors a bit before ultimately being traded to the Damned Yankees for the empty uniform of John Ryan Murphy. And then he proceeded to do this in a Yankees uniform over the following five seasons: Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2016-2020 NYY 461 1769 1498 245 360 69 6 68 219 29 14 243 356 .240 .346 .431 .776 108 645 22 7 4 17 3 Hicks has been injured and the Yankees were a bit over-eager in extending him but it's hard to do anything but cringe at that line and all the wasted (cheap) years of Hicks the Twins gave away. Byron Buxton (2015-present) Buxton and Hicks had a single year of overlap as Buxton debuted as a 21 year-old rookie in 2015 alongside Hicks' final season in a Twins uniform. Buxton was... not good... and the trend continued. After posting a miserable 57 OPS+ in 139 plate appearances as a rookie, the Twins said "looks good, he's our centerfielder of the future!" and promptly traded Aaron Hicks that offseason. Buxton continued to be not good. Like Gomez and Hicks before him, aggressive promotion and lack of coaching consistency plagued Byron as he constantly changed his swing, stance, and approach. The Twins wanted him to be a groundball speed guy while the game itself was screaming for Byron to become Willie Mays, not Willie Mays Hayes. Over the two seasons of Byron struggling under the Ryan administration, he posted the following line: Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2015-2016 MIN 138 469 427 60 94 26 7 12 44 12 4 29 162 .220 .274 .398 .672 80 170 3 4 6 3 0 Then came Falvey and Levine. While they didn't implement many coaching changes over the 2016-2017 offseason, changes were coming. Buxton had his only healthy, full season while posting the following line: Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2017 23 MIN AL 140 511 462 69 117 14 6 16 51 29 1 38 150 .253 .314 .413 .728 93 191 1 4 5 2 2 *8/HD MVP-18,GG In 2018, we basically didn't see Byron Buxton in Minnesota, as the all-too-familiar injury bug limited his playing time in the majors. But when he returned in 2019 with a more stabilized swing, approach, and comfort level, Beast Mode Buxton emerged, finally showing Twins fans the player they anticipated watching since that June day in 2012. Since 2019, Buxton has done the following: Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2019-2021 MIN 187 684 636 117 176 56 4 42 105 25 5 34 166 .277 .321 .575 .897 137 366 5 9 2 3 1 On a per-game basis, he's probably the best player in baseball. Which makes all of this the more sad. We've watched future All-Star centerfielders grow up in Minnesota but leave before we see true greatness emerge in them. Which is why it's not only important for this front office to sign Buxton, it's far and away the most important thing they can do this offseason. Instead of giving up on yet another fantastic up-the-middle talent before they're ready to shine, the Twins need to stop making the same mistake and do one thing: Pay. The. Man.

Then why is this even worth a conversation? It's highly likely Gordon is on the team in a role next season and you (and I) don't believe he'll be more than a utility guy. So why is so much consternation being displayed over a fringe decision that likely didn't change a single outcome this offseason?

Given his ankle issues and flat-out bad defense, I just don't think this front office sees Polanco as a shortstop any more. And given how he performed this season, I'd be pretty wary of moving him off second, too. If anything, I wouldn't have played Polanco at short nearly as often as they did and put Gordon in his place as backup SS.

Frankly, this is really short-sighted. Of course a pitcher is used to playing in front of sketchy defenses but what is the per-game implication of an error or missed ball at short? We've seen it a thousand times: fielder punts a ball or just doesn't have the athleticism to reach it, followed by a walk, three run blast, the pitcher is removed from the game head hanging low. The Twins have lost a few postseason games this way, actually. Would I have played Simmons as much as they did? No, almost certainly not. But there's something to be said for supporting a young pitching staff by not fielding a disaster behind them; playing a competent defensive shortstop is not some crazy notion. And from a development standpoint of Gordon (whose importance of development barely registers in comparison to Ober, Ryan, Jax, Alcala, et al), exactly how much more are you going to learn about him in 340 PAs versus 270 PAs? There's a lot of grey area here and discussion can and should happen around that but the thinking "oh just field the worst ****ing fielders behind a 24 year old guy, it doesn't matter anyway" is a good way to really screw up young pitchers. Defense absolutely matters and being overly concerned about a potential 11th man over a handful of guys who will (hopefully) be anchoring a staff for 5+ years seems like the tail wagging the dog. Why Twins fans are so concerned about the development of Gordon as much as they are continues to baffle me, frankly. Do I want to see Gordon play more? Absolutely. Would I have played him more? Absolutely. But I'm also going to keep my head screwed on straight and acknowledge that I should care about him the same way I cared about Denny Hocking or Nick Punto*. Would anyone here have sacrificed a rookie pitching staff to see what they had in Hocking or Punto? I'm gonna step out on a limb here and say the answer to that is HELL NO. *to be completely frank here, Nick Punto's career is an 80-90th percentile outcome for Nick Gordon and all I remember about Nick Punto is how much we all hated him

People talk about how difficult the Buxton decision is but I feel it's the easiest decision the Twins make this offseason. They need to just take their baseline offer and keep offering more until he says yes. Problem solved.

This one is easy: Poorly. Anything good I'm saying about Simmons is speaking before 2021 happened. He was mediocre in the field and Butera-esque with the bat. He was a straight-up disaster signing, though I'm mildly curious to see if he rebounds at all in 2022, hopefully - I cannot stress "HOPEFULLY" enough - in a different uniform.

I keep Buxton, Garver, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey without hesitation. I’m 50/50 on Gant and Minaya. I may keep one but probably not both. The rest can go. I’m a big believer in aggressive turnover of this roster for 2022. I want fewer depth pieces, fewer corner players, and more aggressive upside signings, of which we saw basically zero last off-season.

That isn't how things played out, though. He was a bad hitter with the Braves (and only played there for a few years before joining the Angels via trade) and the Angels paid him about $50m to play for them. Obviously, they felt he brought value to the team and they were right, as he accumulated 20 rWAR in an Angels uniform.

I think it's a bit unfair to call Simmons' a "glove only" option before 2021, though. - His glove wasn't good, it was generational. The kind of glove that covers for bad pitching and surrounding fielders. - His wRC+ over the previous five seasons were 90, 100, 106, 78, 96. He wasn't a no-hit guy and was actually pretty close to league average with the stick. There's a reason he had two 5+ fWAR seasons in that five year stretch. He was a very good overall player with average-ish offense and otherworldly defense.

I'm sure the Twins cared quite a bit whether they or the Yankees paid the remainder of Simmons' contract. He signed for $10.5m in 2021, he wasn't a chump-change signing. For right or wrong, the Twins don't want to play Gordon or Polanco at short on a daily basis. Given what we know of Gordon's defensive ability at the position and the fact Polanco was having a career year at second and his persistent ankle concerns, I understand their reluctance to both pay for and give away Simmons at the same time. To me, the most baffling aspect of this is why they played Polanco at short at all and why they refused to play Gordon there at all for a couple of months. Getting Gordon into one game a week at short - increasing his PAs in the process - seemed prudent and a reasonable compromise against Simmons' defense and complete lack of offensive production. And I can't imagine that Gordon is a huge dropoff defensively behind Polanco at this point in their careers. Jorge is pretty terrible at short nowadays. But that's a rather separate conversation from whether the Twins should have given Simmons away and paid him, just so they could run bad defensive options in front of a rookie pitching staff every night for two months.

This simply isn't true, though. I've been as critical of Simmons as anyone on this board but even I'm willing to admit that despite his obvious flaws, he was the best defensive shortstop available to the Twins and it wasn't a close contest. And when running out a revolving door of rookie pitchers, not having a disaster fielder at the most important defensive spot in the field is worth something. I would have probably given away Simmons for nothing but also being asked to pay for the honor of giving him away is a bit much.

Whoopsies.

It says quite a bit that after an 89-loss season, other franchises are still trying to lure away Twins executives.

So they're burning through cash at almost a 150% rate over their total revenue. That's awful.

You continue to use batting average while it's just a part of overall offense. Yeah, other people hit around .200, like Kepler for example. Except Kepler slugged .413 while Simmons "slugged" a comically bad .274. I literally did a double take when I saw that number, it's that bad. I can't even recall the last time I saw someone slug that low. When I think of "mediocre no power slap hitter", the player that always pops into my head is Jamey Carroll and he managed to have a career slugging percentage of .338, or a whopping .064 higher than Simmons in 2021. And that's why Kepler's overall offense (98 OPS+) was just kinda bad for a corner outfielder while Simmon's overall offense (57 OPS+) was hilariously bad.

I agree in that I would have given him for nothing. My problem comes with the report itself, which is beyond sketchy. It’s a throwaway line in an article about a different subject, two months after the deadline during which we heard zero reports about Simmons and the Yankees.

And as I said in a chat with friends, if there is news about what the Yankees are doing, it’s reported. Is there a more media-smothered team in all of sports than the Yankees?

After reading the article, I’m more skeptical of the report. Why was it never reported before? Why is the first mention of it a small handful of throwaway words in an article about this off-season? I’m going to need someone to show their work on this one. Maybe it’s true. In that case I vehemently disagree with the decision. But I need to see the work.

If they plan to retain Pineda and didn’t receive any decent offers, I can understand keeping him. I literally would have given Simmons away to anyone who would take him.

Oh FFS. Come on, they had a chance to move that guy and didn't leap at the opportunity? Yuck. Just yuck.

Same. I also ran that phrase through various scenarios and came up with no even remotely justified usages of it. It's probably a holdover because let's face it, Kaat was well into elementary school by the time Jackie donned a Dodgers uniform. He surely has a head full of truly unfortunate phrases and thinking. But he apologized and it seemed real. Hopefully he's a touch more careful from now on and we can all move on instead of trying to crucify an 82 year old man who grew up in a wildly different era. He seems like a genuinely decent guy so I hope this doesn't spiral out of control.

I like Kaat but he's an old man. I appreciate he didn't go with "I'm sorry if I offended anyone" and stuck to "I used hurtful language and I'm sorry".

It does seem odd and it surprised me, I'm just unconvinced that anything would have played out differently in three weeks.

I chuckled at the idea of Rooker being fast and over at Baseball Savant, his sprint speed is 57th percentile. Wait, what? No way would I have guessed he was over 45th percentile or so.