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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It’s not about Gordon vs Aybar, it’s about what is best for Gordon.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I honestly think Mauer would play for the Twins if they gave him $2m. But, given that he has some pride and a respectable agent, he'll probably demand something in the $8-10m range. And if he's performing, I'm totally okay with that. Some things are more important than money and seeing Joe help take another Twins team to the postseason is something I badly want to see happen.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    The article mentions individual players. “There’s a reason spring training has more to tell us about teams than individual players. It’s about signal versus noise. For an individual player, any set of 50 plate appearances (in spring training or otherwise) is extremely volatile and doesn’t say much about them individually. But bring together all the plate appearances of the nine players who make up a batting order and the volatility begins to cancel itself out. All of a sudden we have some sense of how good the nine are in aggregate.” Besides, Garver has all of 21 PAs and only three strikeouts. You’re basing a bad spring on that?
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm going from hazy memory but I recall some articles that crunched the numbers to show that ST stats don't have a strong correlation to regular season stats. Here's an article from 538. There's a modest team correlation but the individual player correlation is negligible. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/spring-training-matters/ "After factoring in the projected performance, a 100-point increase in spring training OPS raises a team’s expected regular-season OPS by 15 points. While that’s not a huge increase, it’s also a much stronger relationship than what we find for individual players, where a hitter whose OPS is 100 points better than expected in the spring improves their expected regular-season OPS by only six points."
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, my point is that I doubt they had clearance for Lynn in the original budget. They even talked about being done with moves before that point, which indicates they didn't have much space left to spend.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. I suspect the front office had to go to ownership hat in hand to sign Lynn but I doubt Sanchez was even in the discussion.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Jimmer didn't conclude anything. He began the sentence with "I believe", which is generally a statement of opinion.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It’s pretty rare but not unheard of. Paul Molitor had the best four year stretch of his career from age 34 to 37.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    If Morrison is a legit 30 homer guy, the Twins will pick up his option. Next offseason, it's likely that things return to normal and guys like Morrison are $10-12m players on a one year contract. You can move that guy for something in trade if need be.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    In a world where guys like Morrison go for $6m, Vargas has no value. None.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    What bothers me is when people speculate wildly without a speck of evidence to support their opinion. Doubly so when that speculation casts people in a negative light for no reason.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB). You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Exactly. Teams don't push for longer term contracts, players do.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    In that I agree, my argument is that if you can get a decent player in free agency, the shortest term contract possible is almost always the best route to take. But some offseasons, that option simply isn't available so you go ahead and offer longer term deals.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe in two years the Twins need to give someone 4-5 years to get a decent player. That was not the case this offseason. But that’s two years you don’t have to worry about a player’s long term health or potential decline. In essence, a two year deal now allows you to postpone the typically bad portion of a contract. Worry about the four year contract when that’s your only option to get a good player and be happy that day isn’t today.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Exactly. A two year deal is the sweet spot, especially at the prices the Twins paid this offseason. In two years, the rotation might look solid but third base is a black hole. Or maybe an outfielder goes down with an injury that removes them from the field permanently. Any number of guys could simply fail. A two year contract allows you the flexibility to do a few things: 1. Lock down a position in the mid-term. 2. Retain future payroll flexibility to adapt to new challenges. 3. Rotate through free agents and avoid what too often become albatross contract seasons in years four, five, and six. There's absolutely no downside here because we're not talking about locking down a 25 year old Clayton Kershaw, we're talking about locking down a 30-something Yu Darvish. Long term contracts are always a risk but they almost always contain a serious downside unless you're talking about one of the generational players who broke into the majors at 20-21 and reached free agency in the middle of their prime. And the Twins will never be able to afford one of those players so it's a moot point anyway. Where the Twins will play in free agency has enormous risk and a lot of downside at the back end of long-term deals. If the risk wasn't there, the player would be too expensive because teams like Minnesota can't afford to give Bryce Harper an eight year, $300m deal.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not a terrible deal, as you're only on the hook for three seasons but that's a lot of money per season. I'll take Lynn, thanks.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno, I kinda lean with the "more is better" approach for an 85 win team. If 50% of your pitching staff is a black hole, one guy might not get it done in the regular season. Picking up two pretty good starters and two pretty good relievers might reap more rewards on a staff that flawed. If the Twins were a 90+ team, then obviously you want that front line starter because it's harder to gain wins at that level. But the Twins certainly didn't have that problem; they could shore up half a dozen roster spots and potentially gain more wins in the process, though obviously your team looks weaker on paper in postseason play. But if you don't make the postseason at all, that frontline starter is a moot point. And I think the Twins' acquisitions have given them a better chance at the postseason than Darvish alone.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Well... not really. They have an option on Morrison and Odorizzi is arg eligible in 2019 as well. And they can expect to see a healthy Pineda in 2019 as well. They also picked up a second year of Reed. Other than Lynn, the front office locked up the guys you might want to see locked up for more than one season. They didn't get a second year on Rodney but does anyone want that anyway? The front office did a very good job of dipping their toes into the water without overcommitting to any single player. It's a pretty impressive feat and given how little the front office paid to do it all, several other MLB front offices should be kinda embarrassed right now.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    At this point, would you trade Darvish at 5-6 years for two years of Odorizzi, one year of Lynn, and two years of Morrison? I’m not sure I would. To get that kind of talent for Darvish money without suffering through the back half of a six year deal is HUGE. As for Lynn vs Cobb, I also lean Cobb but didn’t see enough difference to really get upset about it (not claiming you did either).
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Given how this front office has plucked guys like Odorizzi, Morrison, Reed, and now Lynn this offseason for peanuts, I’d be enraged if I was a fan of one of the other 5-7 fringe contender teams in baseball. It feels really good to be on this end of things for once.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    This just... isn’t correct. “Interestingly, current theory generally holds that rotational and angular movements are more culpable than linear ones.” I literally listened to a doctor talk about this with the football player for an hour about two months ago. There’s no way that Morneau’s concussion looked worse and therefore WAS worse. https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1800383-doctor-dave-explains-concussions-and-head-trauma.amp.html “Of course, there are cases where football players can get an injury and be dead in a few hours. In those cases, they are hit from an angle, and the brain can whip around inside the skull, tearing and stretching, which causes a large hemorrhage and they don't get to the hospital in time.” http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/OnCall/story?id=7121271&page=1 Just search concussion plus either angular or rotational and you’ll find a gaggle of articles that talk about how dangerous some pretty innocent-looking hits can be.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    While the offer seems insulting and lower than I’d offer Lynn (and I don’t even care for Lynn), has ANY other offer been publicized? Because I haven’t seen anything else publicized. And that matters. If you have one offer on the table and there are two other similar guys on the market with the same problem, is any offer actually insulting?
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    First paragraph: Absolutely, and that's the point of my post. I don't even approach the subject of claiming the severity or effects of Mauer's concussion. I won't touch that topic with a ten foot pole because concussions are way out of my depth as a layman. Second paragraph: Maybe I'm misunderstanding this paragraph but immediately after saying all concussions are different, you proceed to say one concussion looked more severe than the other. As I'm sure you understand, how a concussion "looks" doesn't have much impact on its severity or long-term effects. Just a month or so ago I was listening to an interview with a football player (can't remember his name for the life of me) who had several concussions in his career... and the one that took him out of the sport forever is the concussion he received when a teammate tripped over him, barely making contact. But the contact was particularly damaging to his brain because of the specific spot it hit, the angle at which it hit, and the impact's focus on a specific part of his brain.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    The reason I'm in favor of a two year Lynn/Cobb signing is that it gives you insurance on Santana. If he's bad, you decline his 2019 option and let Lynn/Cobb slide into his role next season. If he's good and you have confidence in either Pineda or one of the prospects, then you dish off Santana or Lynn/Cobb for a prospect. At the money we're talking here, there just isn't much downside.
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