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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I guess I see your point but disagree that the front office was wrong in anything but results. Even if you expected an 85 win team to make the postseason (and expecting every team to essentially collapse in one variety or another), the Twins were pretty unlikely to reach that very modest win total (a total that usually leaves your team 2-3 games out of the second WC spot). And, to me, what matters is process. You can't predict anomalous results so you go with the numbers. Going with the numbers may result in minor losses over the short term but in the long term, you'll come out ahead.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but we're talking about a new front office. My point is that the money is available and it's the front office's decision how to spend that money. The owner controls payroll but generally doesn't get involved with how that payroll is allocated.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    They did it for Mauer seven years ago.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    How so? The Twins weren't particularly good in the second half of the season, the rest of the league was just... bad. The Twins had a very good August but weren't exactly lighting the world on fire in September, playing .500 ball for the month. A couple of hot streaks by breakout players fueled that modest run in August but let's not pretend that the Twins were some excellent team and the front office completely missed on the talent that was just waiting to break out in the fifth month of the season. The front office hedged their bets and were wrong because one can't predict random players like Escobar going ape**** or that Buxton would finally figure it out. These things happen with young teams and you can't predict when or where they will happen. What matters is how you react, which makes this offseason vitally important.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I still can't believe the Twins will sign Darvish but that's because Falvey is from Cleveland and that's not how they operate over there. On the other hand, Levine is from Texas and that is how they operate over there.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I watched Hunter a lot and he was a fantastic centerfielder but didn't have the speed of Buxton, nothing close to it. And I don't trust defensive metrics from that time in baseball, especially the outliers (I still have difficulty believing many of the outliers in the modern game).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Impressive. Six out of eight guys in the top half of the rankings.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    1. Because Dozier didn't deserve this particular award. That's not a knock on Brian, as he had an excellent season. 2. A guy who at least deserved consideration, Mauer, didn't even make the finalist cut. I'm glad for Brian but I wish this award was based more on defensive merit and not reputation and/or offense.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how I feel as well. You won't find a breakout/recovery guy on the cheap if you don't try. But that breakout/recovery guy is not a replacement for signing a legit arm as well.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Or Scott Kazmir. Or Jake Arrieta. Those kind of rebound/breakout pitchers aren't terribly uncommon, the trick is identifying them.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks for all the fish.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems to me that May would slot in nicely as the long man for the first few months of the season to get a read on where his breaking stuff is in 2018. Besides, need to keep his innings down anyway. If he's showing progress in July, consider moving him to the rotation.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    And defense would almost certainly be a downgrade with Dozier at the hot corner. Remember Trevor Plouffe? Most guys can't just pick up third base in Spring Training. Plouffe spent most of his MiLB career at short and was absolutely terrible at third base when he hit the majors.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm willing to trade anyone not named Berrios, Buxton, or Sano if it brings back pitching. Though I'd prefer to move a corner outfielder before I moved Polanco, seeing how I don't believe the Twins should retain Dozier past 2018. Jorge can slide over to second base while Gordon takes short.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, FIP excludes all non true outcome balls, which assumes a normalization of those balls. I'm not sure that's accurate given the Twins outfield defense and the pitching staff's general flyball tendencies.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, and 2018 should shake out to be a very good season for the Twins if the front office makes the right moves. They were 19th in ERA and 25th in FIP (which I believe is a bit misleading because Buxton). Kinda bad, but not without hope. Gibson made some strides late in the season. The bullpen wasn't atrocious late in the season. Chargois and Jay might be ready pretty early in the season. Gonsalves and Romero might be ready pretty early in the season. May will be back, though I don't count on him for much coming back from TJ (though with a good fastball, he might be serviceable). Pick up a decent starter and a decent reliever and this team could be a legitimate contender out of the gate. This offense, powered by a full season Buxton, could have them sniffing 90 wins if the front office plays the right hand.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    One thing Ryan doesn't get enough credit for pulling off is drafting/signing two waves of talent. It's incredibly hard to do and that's why the Twins were so good for so long. The first wave hit its stride in 2001 and as many of them were leaving in 2005, the second wave hit and kept the team in contention until 2010. On top of that, the run should have lasted until 2011-12 but the team ran into an amazing stretch of absolutely **** injury luck. That's a hell of a run. It didn't end up with a trophy but it's a hell of an accomplishment for a small market team (which the Twins were at the time, playing in the dome).
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    The point is that it's hard to trade Santana for pitching that will help within the next 36 months (or 24 months moving the timeline back a year). It's a great idea in theory but in practice, it would be incredibly difficult to pull off, if not impossible. If a team has young pitching close to the majors, they're not going to trade those pieces for a veteran pitcher. They'll just lean on the good, young arm that they control for the next seven seasons. So you're trading a 3-ish WAR pitcher for a few prospects that are a few years away. What do you do in the meantime as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, et al are accruing service time? By the time this hypothetical pitcher is ready, all those guys would be at 4+ years of service time, at the minimum. If you want good pitching, you're going to have to either give up prospects or open the wallet. Trading pitching for pitching between contenders isn't really an option.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    These three paragraphs don't make much sense alongside one another. I was open to a Santana trade last winter. I wasn't shocked the front office held on to him but I thought exploring a trade was a solid idea, at the very least. But then the Twins won 85 games, 10-11 more than I expected, so what do I know? Trading Santana and then picking up "good young starters" isn't going to happen. If a team has a good young starter, why do they want Santana? If the starter is 3+ years away from MLB, how does that help the Twins? Pitching for pitching deals don't usually work if both teams are trying to compete in the next two seasons. Never mind that even if Santana declines, he's still likely a 3/4 in the Twins rotation for the next one or two seasons. Given the rotation and pitching depth, that's badly needed on this team. The position players aren't getting younger and they're burning service time by the day. The Twins can't wait for a guy to graduate to Minnesota in 2020, they need guys who can help immediately.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes and yes. A strong side platoon is barely a platoon at all. It's half pinch-hitting, half platoon with a guy who can kinda hit lefties and kinda man the position. With that said, Kepler has to post an OPS north of .500 or he's in trouble. I think he will but it'll take reps. Not a lot. I doubt he'll ever hit lefties over a .700 OPS but that's okay. Most lefties suck against lefties. He just needs to do enough that he's not an automatic out against LHP.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think one of the advantages of Molitor’s inexperience as manager is that he doesn’t have “his guys”. He hasn’t traveled with a pitching and hitting coach through the minors for 10 years and he hasn’t formed relationships with specific people he wants ro hold those positions. And Molitor isn’t a dumb guy. I suspect he acknowledges Falvey has more experience in this realm and says “give me the best guy you can find, I don’t know pitching anyway”.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... It's really hard to win 100 games in back-to-back seasons because it requires quite a bit of luck along with a really good roster. The last team to go back-to-back was the 2003-2004 Yankees, I believe. We're nearing 15 years without a back-to-back 100 win team. It's not like the Cubs collapsed. They won over 90 games.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Oddly enough, I agree. In recent years, a Twins starter going down meant some truly awful AAAA pitcher was slotted to pick up in his place. But the Twins are getting close to graduating some interesting arms. Nothing overpowering, but interesting. You have Gonsalves and Romero on the cusp. Behind them, you have Thorpe, Stewart, and the 2017 deadline acquisitions. I'm more worried about a Phil Hughes situation soaking up innings than I am a guy going down because I wouldn't mind seeing some of those guys get a chance early in 2018.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    This was my first thought when I read the news. Finding a no-name wasn't the least bit surprising. The fact that no-name came from Oakland was quite surprising.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think they expected Dozier to revert to pre-2016 levels. His peripherals suggested he was a different player going forward. How much different was the question. Was he an .800 or .850 OPS guy?
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