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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I don't see them cracking the top half of baseball unless two things happen: 1. Berrios improves significantly. I think the chances of this happening are actually pretty reasonable. 2. One of the castoffs or prospects comes out of nowhere and posts an ERA under 4.00 for the season. It could be Gibson, Sanchez, Hughes (lol), or Gonsalves. I think the chances of this are pretty low and I'd be happy with a 4.50 ERA from any of those guys and thrilled with anything that approaches 4.00.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins finished fifth in scoring last season. If the lineup shakes out as expected and Morrison is good again (.800+ OPS), they can easily be a top three offense. This lineup doesn't only have the chance to be good, they can be dominant. Remember that despite the good play of guys like Buxton and Polanco in the second half, they only ended up being somewhere around league average with the bat at the end of the season. We could see some regression from guys like Dozier and Mauer but that regression can be absorbed and the lineup still improves overall behind more steady play from Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, and Sano.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    This is a good chance to add additional sponsorship opportunities with Chevron or Shell.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    That's where I wanted to see them land - $125m-ish - so good job, front office. There should still be room for more payroll given this team's revenue but I'll take $125m for now.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh, didn't see this coming but it's a good deal, for sure. I don't know that I would have targeted a LHB DH type but at that price, it's hard to say anything negative.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins managed to swipe Odorizzi for the price they did because no one would agree to the Rays' price for Archer. I think that deal is as good as dead unless a team ponies up a king's ransom for the guy. And I hope that isn't the Twins. I like Archer - I like him a lot - but the Twins gave the Rays quite a bit of salary relief with Odorizzi and I think that only solidifies Tampa's position to hold on to Archer if they can't get the right deal (in other words, a massive prospect haul). The Twins walked away with something of a steal in the Odorizzi trade. Consider yourself lucky and move on.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Probably not anymore but he had 2-3 good seasons left in him when he was concussed and probably another 1-2 partial seasons afterward.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't that high on him at the draft but after listening to him speak and hearing about his work ethic, I'm getting a Berrios feel from him.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    It’s just differing pitcher definitions, I think. I tend to believe a #3 should be solidly above league average whereas a #4 is somewhere around average.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not a huge believer in Mejia either but the guy approached a league average ERA and FIP in his rookie season while fighting a couple of minor injuries. He has modest upside, enough to make me want to see him get another shot at a starting role. I don't think he settles any higher than a #4 or a kinda bad #3 but that's valuable on this team.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I agree, my point is more that guys tend to perform better and more consistently when they're healthy. Given that Mejia was pretty close to the line between "kinda bad and mediocre" last season, a healthier season could be what puts him into the 2-2.5 WAR range in 2018 and cements him as a rotation staple, albeit closer to the back than the front.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... the Twins have a lot riding on Gibson stabilizing and Mejia taking a step forward. Thankfully, in the case of Mejia, the step forward can be rather small and he's suddenly a decent pitcher. Just keeping him on the field for 25+ starts would be a big step in the right direction.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not saying Lewis should be off the table, I'm only saying he should be off the table right now. Because I strongly feel that while he's a 25-ish prospect right now, he'll be a top ten guy by season's end. Which means he can centerpiece a deal for basically any pitcher on the market and other teams can't beat the offer. Right now, that's not the case. You'll be tossing in other quality prospects to match other teams, likely good prospects with real upside like Thorpe or Gonsalves.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I'm not saying you are, only that it's close to impossible to get a very good starting pitcher without him being included in the deal. Here's hoping the Twins have a couple of prospects step forward in the coming years so that holes can be filled with legitimately above average players in trade.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll also let it drop but it's not that it's impossible to get good players, it's just a lot harder when you don't have a "gimme" pick at the top and then the ability to draft intelligently down the board. You only have the option to draft intelligently down the board and the hit rate between good and bad teams on those picks is a pretty small gap (but that gap makes all the difference in the world when you nail the pick on a guy down the board every other draft or so).
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about Odorizzi's BABIP. Will it raise this season? Almost certainly. But we're talking about a guy who fought injury issues most of the season and saw his home run rate spike... but his walk rate also spiked. That tells me there's a good chance he lost his feel for the zone due to nagging injury, a guy who might be having trouble finishing his delivery and therefore leaving an extreme number of balls up in the zone. Even if the BABIP jumps back up, as it probably will, a healthy Odorizzi should be able to counter that with a normalized walk and home run rate.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take. Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure what you're getting at here... doesn't pretty much every MLB front office agree that drafting for need is a terrible idea? Some practice it better than others, but I've never heard a front office stray from that line of thinking publicly. If the Twins liked Lewis best, they should have drafted Lewis. It's that simple, really. Worry about filling other positions further down the draft because, chances are, you'll think a pitcher is the BPA somewhere in your first 2-3 picks. And the Twins did just that.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm also expecting a four, will be very happy if he bounces back to being a decent three.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Except the original post made no clarification if ERA or FIP was being used to say "the same". So let's say both are the same. That means Odorizzi will again post a low 4s ERA, making him much better than everyone except Berrios and Santana.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, I see, you're saying that his FIP will be the same. Got it. I disagree on that front but under that definition, Odorizzi is not much of an upgrade.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Considering the drop off after Santana and Berrios, it should be.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I see your point and I don't think it's a big issue. I guess you could summarize my point more succinctly this way: With three better shortstop prospects in the system, two "chasing" Palacios, it makes sense to move him and clear the way for guys you more regard more highly. On that note, how weird is it to talk about shortstop as a position of strength? I've been a Twins fan a little over 30 years and it hasn't happened during that time.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Izzy Odo Jackey, esquire.
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