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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    This seems really optimistic. First, it requires extreme team-wide health we simply cannot expect and it predicts very little regression from some players who are likely to regress (Escobar and Rosario, for example). I'd be *very* happy if they crossed 220. I figure something around 210-215 is pretty likely unless things go horribly wrong.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    His final year of arbitration is 2019 so the Twins can keep him if they want him.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    My first thought as well. Dozier refused to budge from buying out a year of free agency when he signed his last contract (which was the right decision given his age and shows faith in himself, a good thing for a player to have). So why should the Twins bend over backward to accommodate an extension when it's so obvious he prioritizes free agency? I don't blame either side for their actions.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    These two statements don't really jibe with one another. If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply. But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian). And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season. He's not going to be cheap.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Eighth in the AL with a .744 OPS. Pretty much smack-dab in the middle of the league against lefties. Fourth in the AL with a .777 OPS agains righties. Those are pretty solid splits, really.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but the Twins have some pitching help on the way in the next year or so. That will counteract some of the offensive numbers lost if/when Dozier goes to another team. Plus, Polanco/Dozier is not a particularly good middle infield. Gordon/Polanco should be better in that regard.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Your Dozier hatred continues to amuse me. Jay Bruce: 31 years old, 5806 PA, 20.3 fWAR, 18.9 rWAR past 3 year WAR total: 4.2 rWAR Brian Dozier: 31 years old, 3770 PA, 20.8 fWAR, 22.9 rWAR past 3 year WAR total: 13.4 rWAR Come on, those numbers aren't even close.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that Morrison wasn't my first choice but I think it came down to "get a $5m player at $4-5m or get a potential $10-12m player in Morrison at $5.5m." I think the decision made itself in that situation.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'm encouraged by 91, I also know better than to trust a Spring Training gun too much.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we should all be thrilled if Morrison crosses 25 homers. I don't expect 38 but if he can post somewhere in the 25-30 range, this contract is an absolute steal.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I don't see them cracking the top half of baseball unless two things happen: 1. Berrios improves significantly. I think the chances of this happening are actually pretty reasonable. 2. One of the castoffs or prospects comes out of nowhere and posts an ERA under 4.00 for the season. It could be Gibson, Sanchez, Hughes (lol), or Gonsalves. I think the chances of this are pretty low and I'd be happy with a 4.50 ERA from any of those guys and thrilled with anything that approaches 4.00.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins finished fifth in scoring last season. If the lineup shakes out as expected and Morrison is good again (.800+ OPS), they can easily be a top three offense. This lineup doesn't only have the chance to be good, they can be dominant. Remember that despite the good play of guys like Buxton and Polanco in the second half, they only ended up being somewhere around league average with the bat at the end of the season. We could see some regression from guys like Dozier and Mauer but that regression can be absorbed and the lineup still improves overall behind more steady play from Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, and Sano.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    This is a good chance to add additional sponsorship opportunities with Chevron or Shell.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    That's where I wanted to see them land - $125m-ish - so good job, front office. There should still be room for more payroll given this team's revenue but I'll take $125m for now.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh, didn't see this coming but it's a good deal, for sure. I don't know that I would have targeted a LHB DH type but at that price, it's hard to say anything negative.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins managed to swipe Odorizzi for the price they did because no one would agree to the Rays' price for Archer. I think that deal is as good as dead unless a team ponies up a king's ransom for the guy. And I hope that isn't the Twins. I like Archer - I like him a lot - but the Twins gave the Rays quite a bit of salary relief with Odorizzi and I think that only solidifies Tampa's position to hold on to Archer if they can't get the right deal (in other words, a massive prospect haul). The Twins walked away with something of a steal in the Odorizzi trade. Consider yourself lucky and move on.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Probably not anymore but he had 2-3 good seasons left in him when he was concussed and probably another 1-2 partial seasons afterward.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't that high on him at the draft but after listening to him speak and hearing about his work ethic, I'm getting a Berrios feel from him.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    It’s just differing pitcher definitions, I think. I tend to believe a #3 should be solidly above league average whereas a #4 is somewhere around average.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not a huge believer in Mejia either but the guy approached a league average ERA and FIP in his rookie season while fighting a couple of minor injuries. He has modest upside, enough to make me want to see him get another shot at a starting role. I don't think he settles any higher than a #4 or a kinda bad #3 but that's valuable on this team.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I agree, my point is more that guys tend to perform better and more consistently when they're healthy. Given that Mejia was pretty close to the line between "kinda bad and mediocre" last season, a healthier season could be what puts him into the 2-2.5 WAR range in 2018 and cements him as a rotation staple, albeit closer to the back than the front.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... the Twins have a lot riding on Gibson stabilizing and Mejia taking a step forward. Thankfully, in the case of Mejia, the step forward can be rather small and he's suddenly a decent pitcher. Just keeping him on the field for 25+ starts would be a big step in the right direction.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not saying Lewis should be off the table, I'm only saying he should be off the table right now. Because I strongly feel that while he's a 25-ish prospect right now, he'll be a top ten guy by season's end. Which means he can centerpiece a deal for basically any pitcher on the market and other teams can't beat the offer. Right now, that's not the case. You'll be tossing in other quality prospects to match other teams, likely good prospects with real upside like Thorpe or Gonsalves.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I'm not saying you are, only that it's close to impossible to get a very good starting pitcher without him being included in the deal. Here's hoping the Twins have a couple of prospects step forward in the coming years so that holes can be filled with legitimately above average players in trade.
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