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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If I was Lynn, I'd switch gears and ask for 1/$14m or something along those lines. And if I was in the Twins front office, I'd jump all over that deal. If you add Lynn to this roster, I think the Twins are an 80% chance for the postseason team with a 30% or better chance of taking the division.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    If you think you can get Lynn for two years, I wouldn’t hesitate to offer him $32m or so. And I don’t even like his pitching profile, that’s just SUCH a reasonable price for a pitcher of that level that I couldn’t pass it up.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    It was both. He always had a fringy arm for short. Though you actually need a stronger arm for short than third a lot of the time... but I still don't think Dozier has the arm for third.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I've been thinking about this as well. If Dozier accepts the QO, it's an interesting solution. But I still don't want to lock up Brian for four seasons, which is what it will probably take to retain him.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Come on. Nick Gordon is 22 years old.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Every team in baseball should line up for a 5 fWAR player at $8m per season. Every. Single. Team. It doesn't matter if you already have a second baseman, for that money you stash that guy on the bench or at DH. You're literally getting $25m of production for $8m. And if it's smart money for literally all 30 teams to buy into a guy at that price, the odds of him signing at that price are so low they're not worth mentioning. Brian Dozier is a lot closer to JD Martinez than he is Logan Morrison. He's comparable to Lorenzo Cain, who received $80m this offseason.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    If Dozier continues his recent level of play, he'll get a lot more than $8m a season for three seasons. The dude has averaged nearly 5 fWAR per season over the past four seasons. I'd be surprised if he gets less than $12m per season and will likely land somewhere in the $15m per season range, though he may have to take fewer overall years to get that rate (assuming next offseason is similar to this offseason, which is a pretty big assumption to make).
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that has more to do with a 97-98 win team picking up another very good pitcher to add to an already-stacked roster than anything to do with an "ace".
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    If you want to see the young kids play, you have to let them play at some point. And Garver may have been ready last Opening Day. It's time for him to sink or swim.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    You may be reading a bit more into those comps than necessary. Outside of Boone and Valentin - both of whom had good seasons well into their 30s - Dozier is already ahead of everyone on that list in career WAR, despite Brian not having his breakout season until age 26. I mean, it doesn't even make sense to have guys like Weeks on that comp list, as Weeks entered the majors in his early 20s and was basically cooked at age 28.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem is that Rickey's homers were his third most powerful offensive weapon. The first was that ungodly .401 career OBP, followed by swiping bags at will. It's really not the biggest deal in the world that Dozier leads off, but it's leaving runs on the table over the course of a season and that's always a bad idea if you can prevent it from happening. I don't think that can really be debated.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    True, I always think of him having down years every couple of years but he had a 4-5 year stretch there where he was very good, he just had some injuries mixed in.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect most analysts would refer to Cueto as a #2 as well. This board doesn't form its opinions in a vacuum. Look at Cueto's numbers. Outside of a couple of stellar seasons, he's a full step down from what most people consider "aces": Greinke, Bumgarner, Hernandez, Strasburg, et al. He's simply not in the class of those pitchers, who generally sit with a 3.00-3.50 ERA/FIP, 8-9 K/9, etc. And that's not even mentioning otherworldly pitchers, mainly Kershaw.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    The 2005 White Sox had Buerhle - a pretty fringy ace - and a bunch of guys who pitched way out of their depth that season or were in the middle of a decent two year stretch of pitching. And Buerhle was pretty bad in the 2005 postseason, posting an ERA close to 5.00. Dunno if that team really qualifies as not having an ace but their only legit "ace" candidate didn't help them win the World Series that season.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's more of a straight-up fight than you're implying. Mejia started 25-ish games last season and did okay for himself. The team is coming off an 85 win season and postseason berth. I don't think the front office is going to give the advantage to veterans like the old front office did so often.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco was a more highly regarded prospect, had a better MiLB career, and didn’t luck his way to MLB success as Santana did with his .400 BABIP. And Spring Training stats just don’t matter.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    There's really nothing comparable between Odorizzi and Pelfrey/Nolasco.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco had a .723 OPS last season. You're predicting regression from that number?
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    When you hit 40 homers and have a competent lineup behind you, it's hard not to score 100 runs. But would you rather seen Dozier score 100 and drive in 80 or score 80 and drive in 110? Because his profile is a guy who can drive in a massive number of runs if he had guys like Polanco and Mauer in front of him in the lineup.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Six of one, half dozen of the other. Both parties are at fault, IMO.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    You heard opposite projections about them, that they’d finally normalize their ERA DOWN to their FIP. Odorizzi has the opposite “problem”. His FIP was way higher than his ERA last season.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The most unfortunate thing about the Sanchez signing was its timing, and that's not really fair. Had it come after the Odorizzi trade, we all probably mumble "okay, that makes sense" and get on with our days. Because the Sanchez signing is the type of low risk, decent reward that mid-market teams should pursue. If you see a guy who has the stuff and ability to rebound into being a productive player and can be had on the cheap, give it a shot. There's so little to lose and quite a bit to gain. The 2012-2015 Twins needed a lot more Sanchez-type signings and a lot less Correia-type signings.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed on the high. I'd be happy with 25 from Morrison, 10 from Mauer, 10 from Castro. That's 13 home runs difference right there, never mind guys like Escobar that may struggle to hit 15, much less 18.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    From what I've seen of most analytic studies, they agree with you on this. I can't remember the exact order - they seem to vary slightly based on specific analysis - but your best hitter doesn't hit first in the order for the very reason that the point of the game is to score runs and it's hard to drive in runs if inferior hitters follow your best hitter. The leadoff man should be one of your better hitters but only third-ish best in the lineup, IIRC.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes). He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly. But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound. I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.
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