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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    True, I always think of him having down years every couple of years but he had a 4-5 year stretch there where he was very good, he just had some injuries mixed in.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect most analysts would refer to Cueto as a #2 as well. This board doesn't form its opinions in a vacuum. Look at Cueto's numbers. Outside of a couple of stellar seasons, he's a full step down from what most people consider "aces": Greinke, Bumgarner, Hernandez, Strasburg, et al. He's simply not in the class of those pitchers, who generally sit with a 3.00-3.50 ERA/FIP, 8-9 K/9, etc. And that's not even mentioning otherworldly pitchers, mainly Kershaw.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    The 2005 White Sox had Buerhle - a pretty fringy ace - and a bunch of guys who pitched way out of their depth that season or were in the middle of a decent two year stretch of pitching. And Buerhle was pretty bad in the 2005 postseason, posting an ERA close to 5.00. Dunno if that team really qualifies as not having an ace but their only legit "ace" candidate didn't help them win the World Series that season.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's more of a straight-up fight than you're implying. Mejia started 25-ish games last season and did okay for himself. The team is coming off an 85 win season and postseason berth. I don't think the front office is going to give the advantage to veterans like the old front office did so often.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco was a more highly regarded prospect, had a better MiLB career, and didn’t luck his way to MLB success as Santana did with his .400 BABIP. And Spring Training stats just don’t matter.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    There's really nothing comparable between Odorizzi and Pelfrey/Nolasco.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco had a .723 OPS last season. You're predicting regression from that number?
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    When you hit 40 homers and have a competent lineup behind you, it's hard not to score 100 runs. But would you rather seen Dozier score 100 and drive in 80 or score 80 and drive in 110? Because his profile is a guy who can drive in a massive number of runs if he had guys like Polanco and Mauer in front of him in the lineup.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Six of one, half dozen of the other. Both parties are at fault, IMO.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    You heard opposite projections about them, that they’d finally normalize their ERA DOWN to their FIP. Odorizzi has the opposite “problem”. His FIP was way higher than his ERA last season.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    The most unfortunate thing about the Sanchez signing was its timing, and that's not really fair. Had it come after the Odorizzi trade, we all probably mumble "okay, that makes sense" and get on with our days. Because the Sanchez signing is the type of low risk, decent reward that mid-market teams should pursue. If you see a guy who has the stuff and ability to rebound into being a productive player and can be had on the cheap, give it a shot. There's so little to lose and quite a bit to gain. The 2012-2015 Twins needed a lot more Sanchez-type signings and a lot less Correia-type signings.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed on the high. I'd be happy with 25 from Morrison, 10 from Mauer, 10 from Castro. That's 13 home runs difference right there, never mind guys like Escobar that may struggle to hit 15, much less 18.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    From what I've seen of most analytic studies, they agree with you on this. I can't remember the exact order - they seem to vary slightly based on specific analysis - but your best hitter doesn't hit first in the order for the very reason that the point of the game is to score runs and it's hard to drive in runs if inferior hitters follow your best hitter. The leadoff man should be one of your better hitters but only third-ish best in the lineup, IIRC.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes). He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly. But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound. I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    This seems really optimistic. First, it requires extreme team-wide health we simply cannot expect and it predicts very little regression from some players who are likely to regress (Escobar and Rosario, for example). I'd be *very* happy if they crossed 220. I figure something around 210-215 is pretty likely unless things go horribly wrong.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    His final year of arbitration is 2019 so the Twins can keep him if they want him.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    My first thought as well. Dozier refused to budge from buying out a year of free agency when he signed his last contract (which was the right decision given his age and shows faith in himself, a good thing for a player to have). So why should the Twins bend over backward to accommodate an extension when it's so obvious he prioritizes free agency? I don't blame either side for their actions.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    These two statements don't really jibe with one another. If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply. But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian). And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season. He's not going to be cheap.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Eighth in the AL with a .744 OPS. Pretty much smack-dab in the middle of the league against lefties. Fourth in the AL with a .777 OPS agains righties. Those are pretty solid splits, really.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but the Twins have some pitching help on the way in the next year or so. That will counteract some of the offensive numbers lost if/when Dozier goes to another team. Plus, Polanco/Dozier is not a particularly good middle infield. Gordon/Polanco should be better in that regard.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Your Dozier hatred continues to amuse me. Jay Bruce: 31 years old, 5806 PA, 20.3 fWAR, 18.9 rWAR past 3 year WAR total: 4.2 rWAR Brian Dozier: 31 years old, 3770 PA, 20.8 fWAR, 22.9 rWAR past 3 year WAR total: 13.4 rWAR Come on, those numbers aren't even close.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that Morrison wasn't my first choice but I think it came down to "get a $5m player at $4-5m or get a potential $10-12m player in Morrison at $5.5m." I think the decision made itself in that situation.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'm encouraged by 91, I also know better than to trust a Spring Training gun too much.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we should all be thrilled if Morrison crosses 25 homers. I don't expect 38 but if he can post somewhere in the 25-30 range, this contract is an absolute steal.
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