Zebby Matthews and the Next Frontier of Pitching Development

As the losses and injuries mount....how long til we hear the "Trade Pablo" speculation?  Org has done a good job developing pitching.  Now, about the lack of hitting....:)

Three dominant starts for a total of 15 innings. That tells me plenty about the Twins' approach to pitcher "development," which is, training them to have no ambition to go deep into games. That and "building up rest." What can that possibly mean? No one gets stronger by resting. I swear, if the Twins had a young pitcher who wanted to be, say, the next Roger Clemens, they'd be horrified and he'd never be allowed to develop into a bulldog. But they'd sure build up his rest. 

Trying to remember if Don Drysdale or Nolan Ryan were worried about control and command.

Option SWR until they can find a trade partner for Paddack. SWR doesn't deserve it but Zebby should be in the majors.

Zebby is fantastic, but two points I've made before:

1.  Zebby wasn't lined up to take Pablo Lopez' start.  It would have been after four days rest, and he was working on 5-6 days rest right then.  He pitched on a Tuesday, and Pablo's start was to be Sunday, four days rest.  It was too rushed for him to get all that many innings.  Starting Festa on his regular day and moving part of the rotation back was the smart, necessary move.

2.  I think the Twins will do everything they can to keep Zebby under 124 days of service time, which means if they keep him down through very early June, he'll wind up with less than 172 days through two season.  That will give them this year and six more prior to free agency.  While that's tough on Zebby, arbitration will still be the same offseason, and his salary will rise to nearly what he'd get in his first free agent year in the end.  Except the Twins will have control for that year.

Bonus point:  Zebby is awesome!

Definitely a good problem to have. No such thing as too much pitching depth. Pablo schedule for a rehab start w/Saints Sat I believe. Zebulon and Festavus will be ready for their next opportunity. 

If zebby continues to improves as a starting pitcher , he could be a playoff starting pitcher ...

First we have to win win and win to  get to the playoffs ...

I think the last thing Zebby and all our young starters need to work on is being efficient and getting deeper into games. We've seen what happens this year when our MLB starters only go 4-5 innings. We have to rely on way too many pen arms and eventually one of them blows the game. Zebby and Festa will be in the rotation for the second half is my guess.

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think the last thing Zebby and all our young starters need to work on is being efficient and getting deeper into games. We've seen what happens this year when our MLB starters only go 4-5 innings. We have to rely on way too many pen arms and eventually one of them blows the game. Zebby and Festa will be in the rotation for the second half is my guess.

If you want him going deeper into games, he's going to have to drop back on the velocity.

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see a big change in Stuff+ vs. last year despite the velo increase. Zebby's pitches all grade out at 45-55 (average MLB caliber). No plus offerings (120+).

Matthews should be a solid starter at the MLB level, but he'll probably need better movement to become an upper rotation threat.

As big a fan as I am, I agree with this.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Hope that's not the case, but I fear you're right. If he's wearing out at 70 pitches now, he'll be a totally dead arm by August.

I understand this sentiment, and you're right based on the premise you lay out.  But is he wearing out?  Two things:  first, the Twins are likely limiting the number of pitches, and there might be some third time through order issues (rather than being taxed) if he's getting hit later, I haven't looked.  Second, low pitch counts for minor leaguers are common, especially early.  70 pitches isn't as much the result of being tired, it's just the process of getting to 100 pitches by August.  Maybe that's all one thing, not two!

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

5] Slightly off track, while Morris had a rough 3rd start, I'm super encouraged by his progress and potential. Matthew's great 2024 overshadowed the really good '24 that Morris had. It's entirely possible the Twins have THREE really good, ready made, young starters and not room for all of them to begin 2025. That's a GOOD problem to have.

6] I have a lot of faith in Lewis being a solid ML SP, though he's a little behind the others touched on. With all due respect to Dobnak and possible pen/length contributions yet this season, I believe Lewis should be starting for St Paul and let Dobnak be the the piggyback arm. IMO, that serves both pitchers better going forward.

That game this past week stressed me out like no other.  Morris and Lewis are favorites of mine.  Morris is my favorite Twins prospect (not saying best), and I actually met Lewis a year ago when he was in town for the Diamond Awards (minor league pitcher of year).  I think Lewis' 2024 is one of the most misleading statlines due to rustiness after missing time with the shoulder.  After early walk issues, he was dominant.

Morris is 15 months younger than Zebby.  That doesn't matter as much with pitchers, and they're both around 24, not 19, but in terms of Twins development, I do think it's a thing.  Zebby did not have Morris' 2024 back in 2023.  Admittedly, they were drafted the same year and seem to have taken the same path from there, with Zebby jumping ahead, so I'm not sure the age difference means anything in this case.

Zebby has always had good location and the ability to throw strikes. If he's improved his stuff while maintaining his location and ability to throw strikes that is a very good thing.