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Age: 21 (DOB: 8/7/2002)
2023 Stats (A+/AA): 62 2/3 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
ETA: 2025
2023 Ranking: 4
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What's To Like
Selected out of a Texas high school in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, Marco Raya didn't make his official professional debut until 2022. By then, people in the organization had been raving about the young hurler's work behind the scenes for months, talking about how much promise he showed with a stellar fastball/slider combo. I made him my "pick to click" in that year's top prospect list recap at Twins Daily.
The organization finally let Raya loose that season, and he definitely clicked, posting a 3.05 ERA in 65 innings at Low-A, where he was three full years younger than the average player. The outstanding performance vaulted him to No. 4 in last year's ranking, a spot he retains this time around following another impressive campaign.
While the Twins have been ultra-cautious with Raya's handling on the mound, they've also been very aggressive in pushing the right-hander competitively. Despite a relatively short stint at Low-A in 2022, he opened the 2023 season at High-A Cedar Rapids, where he continued to overpower more experienced opposition. In 11 starts for the Kernels, Raya posted a 2.93 ERA and 39-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 ⅔ innings, holding opponents to a .192/.250/.325 triple-slash.
Twins decision-makers were impressed enough that they once again promoted Raya, making him one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A after totaling fewer than 100 innings in A-ball. The 20-year-old righty struggled with the transition at first (11.08 ERA, 13/11 K/BB in his first six starts), but settled in and cruised to the finish line for Wichita (0.56 ERA, 13/3 K/BB in his last five starts).
Raya throws a high-spin fastball that clocks at 94-96 MPH and is difficult to square up, but he mixes in a lot of breaking balls. That's where his real strength lies. In particular, the oft-used slider has been a tremendous weapon for him at every level, in large part because he can throw it where he wants with precision. "Raya’s slider has above-average horizontal movement, and he has the ability to get swings and misses in the zone with it," according to Baseball America. "He actually has better command of his slider than his fastball."
When you have stuff like this and can throw it for strikes, you're going to be successful in the minors, even against more seasoned and accomplished competition. We've seen that play out consistently for Raya. It explains why the Twins have been comfortable advancing him so aggressively, and it's why we should feel good about Raya continuing to get results as he keeps moving up the ladder toward a not-too-distant MLB debut.
What's Left To Work On
When it comes to development, the Twins have clearly adopted an attitude that there's not much value in having young pitchers pile up a bunch of innings in the minors. Looking through game logs for any of their highly-rated starter prospects last year, you will rarely find an instance of someone pitching into the sixth inning or approaching 100 pitches.
Raya has been on the extreme end, to the point where one could argue the organization is handling him with kid gloves. Although 39 of his 41 professional appearances have been starts, and he's obviously pitched well, Raya has only averaged a bit over three innings per outing. Last year, he never once pitched into even the fifth inning, nor threw more than 54 pitches.
I can certainly see the logic in this philosophy. Throwing at max effort in game action is very hard on the body, and there's a cost to wasting bullets. Minor-league games ultimately don't matter for much other than development, and a lot of that can be handled on the side, as Raya's journey exemplifies. But the extent to which he's been held back does limit our ability to evaluate and project his potential as a major-league starter.
Is his skinny yet athletic 6-foot-1 frame up to the task of sustaining velocity past 60 or 70 pitches? We don't know; we've never seen it. Will his stuff play against lineups multiple times? He never got through the batting order even two full times in a start last year, much less a third.
Until he answers these questions, it'll be hard to envision Raya as anything approximating a traditional 200-inning starter. But the talent and performance have been so excellent that it's easy to envision him as an effective major-league pitcher, which is why Twins Daily has him ranked as the organization's top pitching prospect for a second straight year.
What's Next
Raya is likely to open his age-21 season back at Double-A. From there, he seems to have two paths forward in 2024. Either the Twins will start to focus on extending his outings and building him up toward a true starter's workload, or they'll continue to use him in shorter bursts with an eye on getting him to the majors quickly.
Conceivably, Raya could join the big-league staff at some point during the season, perhaps as a multi-inning reliever. He'd be one of the youngest pitchers to debut for the Twins in decades.
Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown
Honorable Mentions
20. Zebby Matthews, RHP
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
18. Ricardo Olivar, OF
17. Connor Prielipp, LHP
16. Matt Canterino, RHP
15. Yunior Severino, 1B
14. Danny De Andrade, SS
13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
12. Kala'i Rosario, OF
11. Luke Keaschall, 2B
10. Tanner Schobel, 2B
9. Brandon Winokur, OF
8. Charlee Soto, RHP
7. Cory Lewis, RHP
5. David Festa, RHP
4. Marco Raya, RHP
Check back tomorrow for a look at our No. 3 prospect of 2024, and this evening for a bonus insert to the list! For now, let's hear your thoughts on Marco Raya. What's the next step for his development?
Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
View Twins Top Prospects
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