TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon

I can't get on board until I see better production out of Gordon.  He has 800 plate appearances in the minors and the lead-in is still about his Dad.

He has shown virtually no power and the article suggests he won't this year based on the league and does not expect him to reach AA this year. 

I will openly admit I have a few biases here that impact my view of Gordon.

-Bloodlines mean very little. 

-When I hear a guy will develop more power, they rarely do.  Joe Mauer was going to develop more power.  So when I see a guy that has one HR a year I think we are kidding ourselves that they will likely be a 15 HR a year guy.

-I thought this pick was way too safe at #5.

Bloodlines = Genetics + better coaching opportunities.  

Its an advantage most other prospects don't have.  But lots of ballplaye'sr kids don't get drafted at such a high slot.  And lots of ballplayer's kids don't draw the rave reviews from scouts.  

Scouts see Gordon and say he can play SS at the MLB level, they like his makeup and they like his bat. 

He'll be 20 years old playing at high A.  He might struggle a bit, but as long as he keeps playing good Defense, and keeps getting on base we should be patient with his bat.

I kept expecting to hear something about how fast the guy is.  Is he fast like his brother?  Speed doesn't slump . . . .

Well, he had a league average bat in the Midwest League.  Not quite sure he can be "at least" a league average bat in MLB, that's 4 levels away.  It's quite possible he *can* do it, of course, but I wouldn't put the "at least" qualifier on it, not quite yet, until he's league average closer to MLB and/or starts flashing an above league-average bat for an extended period in the minors.

Here is the issue for me. 

Simmons debuted at 22 and posted a WAR of almost 3.

Lindor debuted at 21 and posted a 4.6 WAR season in just 99 games.  

Bogarts debuted just before being 21.  He posted a 4.6 WAR at 22. 

Starlin Castro posted a 1.6 WAR at 20.

And here we are, looking at Gordon.  The article notes that he has not posted an OPS above .700 between rookie ball and low A.  It notes that he has two HR and will likely not see a meaningful increase in his third year.  And he will likely not see an increase this next year.  And nobody really expected a quicker path to the big leagues because nobody really expected him to exceed these numbers to a great degree. 

I think it begs a few questions,

is this the appropriate risk/reward at number five overall?   

At what point do we expect the bloodlines to help Gordon? 

If someone from the Simmons, Lindor, Bogarts, Gordon group is going to become a hall of famer like Barry Larkin, wouldn't the other three have a much better shot?

2014 was a fun class. Lots of intriguing HS arms although some big disappointments so far among that group (incl. my guy Kolek). The college bats as a whole seem to be doing best.

 

Maybe the best retrospective comparisons are Nola and Turner. The Twins seemed heavily linked to both players, almost nobody on the board liked either of them. But they're both doing pretty well.

 

As for Gordon, I just hope the glove is legit. If he can be a stud on defense then he won't need to hit for much power to be an *alright* pick.

I would rather take a guy like Kolek who may have a higher chance to flame out.  But he could be one of the best SP in the league.  I am just not sure Gordon was ever going to be a top 3 SS in the league. 

To me it shouldn't be will the guy make it to the big leagues at five overall.  It should be, will this guy be a difference maker.

Hard to say much about risk/reward when we're just two years past the draft. Not every player develops at the same rate and Gordon might take additional time to get there, time will tell.

 

IMO, as far as #5 picks go, he was a relatively low ceiling guy. And that's okay if his bat pans out because, by all accounts, the defense is there to be a fixture at short for a long time.

 

For me, the most important thing is how Gordon adjusted to A ball pitching last season. He went from a first half .250 .325 .301 line to a second half .302 .347 .416 line.

 

Sure, he's not hitting many homers but his doubles went from eight in the first half to 15 in the second half. When talking about a 19 year old player with a slight frame, that's a very positive sign the homers will come at some point, even if he'll never be a power hitter.

 

2016 will be telling. If Gordon rips 25+ doubles in Ft Myers and hits zero home runs, that shouldn't be cause for concern. When it comes to a 20 year old guy in Ft Myers - a notorious pitcher's league - we should be looking at gap power, not home run power.

At this point it doesn't look like Gordon has separated himself from the other SS within our farm system (Polanco, Palacios, and Vielma).  Is that fair?

I think that's (mostly) fair. Gordon has fewer flaws than Polanco (defense) and Vielma (offense) but Palacios is interesting, for sure. I know little about the kid, though.

 

Gordon is more of a sure thing than the first two guys, though... He's kind of a mix of the best traits of each (Polanco's acceptable bat and Vielma's very good defense).

Yeah. I don't disagree that from a prospect ranking perspective, Gordon should be rated higher.  But based on numbers alone, both Polanco and Palacios have put up better numbers and everyone agrees Vielma has the best glove. 

So for Gordon the cream is not really rising within his own system.  So the "ceiling/floor" article suggesting he has all star capabilities and that his floor is an MLB player, or that he could become Barry Larkin could be reined in a little bit.

 

Well, yeah, if you assume that Gordon is going to be the best of that group in average, power, and approach, he's probably the best.

 

Polanco at age 19 in Cedar Rapids had a .308 AVG .144 ISO, 8.0 BB%, and 11.3 K%.

 

Gordon at age 19 in Cedar Rapids was obviously worse across the board, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and looking only at his stats from June onward: .304 AVG, .102 ISO, 6.6 BB%, 15.1 K%.

 

Polanco has bested those numbers at pretty much every level, and in his career minor league numbers.  Gordon's a couple inches taller, but I have a hard time projecting him higher than Polanco's demonstrated average, power, and approach skills right now.

Yeah I get the sense that if we looked at these four guys objectively and removed where they were drafted, last name, etc. and just looked at numbers, league, age, and tools it would not be so cut and dry in favor of Gordon.  

Top prospects seem to get the benefit of the doubt for about two years.   Most rankings had Gordon fall about 35 spots this year.  Without a real modest improvement at the plate this year Gordon might be outside the top 100 a year from now.

It seems that he's projected to essentially be Denard Span at the plate. I'd take that in a starting SS.

It seems that he's projected to essentially be Denard Span at the plate. I'd take that in a starting SS.

Span's career OBP and slugging are .353/.395.  Quite a bit better than Gordon's in A ball and rookie league .335/.362.

Span did put up a similar OPS at 19/20, but really turned it on the next year at 21.  In A/AA .307, .377, .364.