Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 8: 1-5

Previous installments of this prospect ranking:

• Part 1 (41-50)
  
• Part 2 (31-40)
  
• Part 3 (26-30)
  
• Part 4 (21-25)
  
• Part 5 (16-20)
  
• Part 6 (11-15)
  
• Part 7 (6-10)
  

As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

Top Prospects 1-5

#5 – Tyler Jay - 16 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle

The Twins had the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft. After selecting high school players with their first pick the previous three years, they went with a college pitcher. Tyler Jay was named the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year in 2015, his third season at the University of Illinois. He became the fourth pitcher in the Twins organization to have won that award (Glen Perkins 2004, Alex Wimmers 2010, Aaron Slegers 2013). Jay pitched primarily out of the bullpen, though he usually pitched several innings at a time. He will get an opportunity to start with the Twins, likely starting in Ft. Myers. That’s where he began his professional career after signing for just shy of $3.9 million.

Overall, he went 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games. In 18.1 innings, he walked eight and struck out 22. But a closer look at the numbers is important too. In his first seven games, opponents hit .344 off and he posted an 8.10 ERA. Over his final 12 outings of the year, he posted a 1.54 ERA and opponents hit just .171.

According to Jeremy Nygaard’s terrific 2015 Twins Draft Book, Jay has a fastball that sits 92 to 95 mph but can touch 98 at times. He has a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider and a high-70s curve ball. That pitch mix is certainly a big part of why many believe that he can make the transition to starter. As a starter, the Twins will be wise to be a little more patient. If he were to move to the bullpen, he could move quickly.

Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

#4 – Nick Gordon - 20 – SS – Cedar Rapids Kernels

Gordon was the Twins first pick in 2014, the fifth overall pick, out of Olympia High School in Orlando, Florida. The son of former All-Star Tom Gordon and the brother of current All-Star and NL batting champ Dee Gordon, Nick has incredible genes and incredible tools. He’s not as fast as Dee, but he has well above average speed. He has a smooth, line-drive, gap-to-gap swing that gets through the batting zone very quickly. He should hit for average, but as he continues to grow and gain strength, he could develop into a 12-18 home run-a-year guy.

Defensively, he is very solid. In over 1,055 innings in 2015 for Cedar Rapids, he posted a .966 fielding percentage. He has good range and a very strong arm. The sixth tool, plate discipline and approach, has also become something people discuss. Gordon is good and will continue to improve in that aspect. He walked in just over 7%, but he takes very good at-bats.

Overall, he hit .277/.336/.360 (.696). Very solid numbers for a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. It is more impressive than it looks because he had a rough stretch early in the season. After hitting .318 over the team’s first 11 games, he hit .182/.243/.202 (.445) over his next 25 games. Over his final 99 games, he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760) with 21 doubles, five triples and a home run. On the year, Gordon stole 25 bases. He is a terrific athlete with all the tools and a very high baseball IQ. He has a chance to be the Twins shortstop for many years, but it is going to take a few years for him to get there. Be patient.

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (4)

#3 – Max Kepler - 23 – OF/1B – Chattanooga Lookouts/Minnesota Twins

2015 was an important season for Kepler. Not that the organization has not been plenty patient with him, but he began to show that some of those incredible tools would become skills. He responded with a season that earned him the Twins (and Twins Daily’s) Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 112 games with the Lookouts, he hit .322/.416/.531 (.947) with 32 doubles, 13 triples and nine home runs. Then he was named the Southern League’s Most Valuable Player. He added a couple of big home runs in the Lookouts championship run. Moments after that championship, Kepler learned he had been called up to the big leagues. He got just seven at-bats. On the final day of the season, he made his first start and got his first hit, a single to right off of Johnny Cueto.

At 6-4 and 220 pounds, Kepler is very strong and has the potential to hit a lot of home runs. He combines that power with a lot of speed. He can play all three outfield positions, including center field, though he is more of a corner guy. He also is very good at first base. He has a pretty swing from the left-side and uses the whole field. His arm is a bit above average.

On July 2, 2009, the Twins gave Kepler the highest signing bonus (at that time) to a European signee. He was 16 and came to the States. He finished high school quickly. He spent one season in the GCL and two in Elizabethton. Since then, it has been one level each year until this year in Chattanooga. Kepler is likely to spend a good chunk of the 2016 season in Rochester. However, with the adjustments he has made and the numbers he has put up, if the Twins have a need at 1B or in the outfield in 2016, don’t be surprised to see Kepler called up at any time.

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (13), 2014 (9), 2013 (10), 2012 (18), 2011 (16), 2010 (29)

#2 – JO Berrios – 21 – RHP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings

The Twins had a supplemental first-round draft pick (32^nd overall) in the 2012 draft thanks to losing free agent Michael Cuddyer. They used that pick on a skinny right-hander from Puerto Rico named Jose Berrios. He signed quickly. After posting a 1.08 ERA in 16.2 innings in the GCL, he moved up to Elizabethton and posted a 1.29 ERA in three starts, helping them to the Appy League title. In 30.2 combined innings, he walked four and struck out 49. The next spring, he pitched out of the bullpen for Puerto Rico in the WBC. He began his season late with Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he took a major leap forward statistically and in prospect rankings. He went 9-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 16 starts with the Miracle. He was promoted to New Britain and went 3-4 with a 3.54 ERA in eight starts. He also started for the World Team in the Futures Game at Target Field. He was named the Twins Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year by Twins Daily and the Twins named him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

In 2015, he was even better. He went 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 15 starts. He was promoted to Rochester where he was 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 12 starts. He was named the starting pitcher for the second straight year in the Futures Game. He was again the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year and the Twins choice for Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

Berrios’s stuff is well documented, and his work ethic certainly can’t be questioned. He has a fastball in the low-to-mid-90s. He has a very sharp curve ball. He also has a very good change-up. He has great poise and strong makeup. No question he was disappointed not to end his 2015 season with the Twins. It’s likely it will motivate him even more for 2016. He’s likely to start back at Rochester, but don’t be surprised if we see him in Minnesota before the All-Star break, possibly even by May.

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (3), 2014 (7), 2013 (8)

#1 – Byron Buxton – 22 – OF –Chattanooga Lookouts/Minnesota Twins/Rochester Red Wings

Byron Buxton made his MLB debut in early June. It was clear that he wasn’t ready offensively as Doug Mientkiewicz said at that time. The 21-year-old struggled mightily with the bat in his big league debut. Even with a strong last few games, he hit just .209/.250/.326 in 46 games. He finished the season with 129 at-bats which means he will be eligible and a favorite for 2016 American League Rookie of the Year.

After missing most of 2014 with a variety of injuries, 2015 was a very streaky year for baseball’s top prospect (or at least top two). Consider these streaks:

• First 12 Games: .180/.241/.300 (.541)
  
• Next 16 Games: .338/.395/.662 (1.056)
  
• Next 8 Games: .118/.143/.206 (.349) – includes a 3-hit game with a 2B & 3B
  
• Next 7 Games: .438/.486/.938 (1.423)
  
• Next 7 Games: .154/.290/.154 (.444)
  
• Next 8 Games: .467/.541/.567 (1.107)
  

And that’s when he was called up to the big leagues. As we all know, a nemesis of his arrived. He injured his thumb after two weeks and missed about six weeks. He returned to play at Rochester where he hit in all 13 games he played. He hit .400/.441/.545 (.986) with three doubles, a triple and a home run. That’s the type of numbers he can put up in stints, though observers noted that he wasn’t exactly making solid contact during that stretch. However, Aaron Hicks went on the DL and Buxton was called back up. He struggled with the bat, but his defense is still very valuable to the team and specifically to the pitching staff.

Buxton will remain the number one (again, possible #2) prospect in all of baseball going into the 2016 season. Some will look at his struggles in the big leagues and think he’s less of a prospect. Just no. He turns 22 in December. He has elite, world-class speed. He is elite defensively, and he has a plus-plus arm.

Offensively, he is still projected to become a solid hitter for average, and as we saw late in the year, he has enough power to hit some long home runs. One was to deep left field, the other was just to the right field side of center field. He has good bat speed to generate that kind of power. He is patient at the plate, sometimes to a fault.

The off-season will be interesting. Will Buxton begin the 2016 season manning center field for the Twins, or for the Red Wings? Either way, his future is very bright.

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (1), 2014 (1), 2013 (2)

So, what do you think of Part 8, the top five prospects? And how do you feel about the overall Top 50? Were there names missing? And again, please feel free to create a blog and post your Top 50 or leave one in this forum.

Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!