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    It's Time!


    Seth Stohs

    This was supposed to be my article for Monday night, but with the firing (er, dismissal of duties) of Terry Ryan on Monday, this topic could wait a little bit. But I think it is important. Now the article can be framed as a request for interim GM Rob Antony to consider.

    With the Twins already out of playoff contention (probably in early May), every decision made for the rest of this season needs to have its focus to 2017. Any trades made by Antony need 2017 and beyond in mind. But there are a couple of transactions that can be - and probably should be - made right now.

    Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan, USA Today

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    The Twins need to find a way to promote three players from the minor leagues to the big leagues (and I’ll even argue for a fourth).

    Jose Berrios

    Ahora es el momento para La Makina! Jose Berrios needs to spend time in the big leagues this year, and his recent AAA success is proof of it. The time is now for Berrios to be called up.

    I’ve written several times that I thought it was time for Berrios to come up. I wrote it first about this time last year. I wrote it earlier this season, and now I’m writing it again. I don’t know if calling up Berrios would have helped the Twins in 2015 or not. There is no way to know. His control and command issues hurt him earlier this season, but he did get an opportunity with the Twins before his 22nd birthday in May.

    Those struggles were magnified in his four starts with the Twins. He went 1-1 but posted a 10.20 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP over 15 innings. While we saw glimpses of what he can - and likely will - be (the 12 K/9 looks great), we also saw that there was more for him to learn and that he needed to improve (7.2 BB/9 isn’t going to work).

    Berrios returned to Rochester and after a couple of rough starts, he has been tremendous of late.

    In his last six starts, he has thrown 41.2 innings. He has given up 23 hits walked 12 and struck out 43. That’s a 1.08 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9.

    Berrios is not a finished product and when he is called up he is going to still experience some lumps, but he’s got nothing left to prove at AAA. He has now made 27 starts and thrown 168 innings in AAA. He has had a lot of success there. There’s no reason he make any more starts there.

    JT Chargois

    There is also little reason for JT Chargois to continue pitching in Rochester at this point. Sure, he had a rough debut, and when the Twins claimed RHP Neil Ramirez off of waivers, it made some sense to send Chargois back down.

    Ramirez is a guy who was really good for the Cubs for a couple of years. Then he got hurt, and he’s out of options. So, is he the pitcher he has been the last year and a half, or is he the guy who was good? When a team has the right to claim players early, they should take chances on guys like Ramirez. However, it hasn’t gone terribly well, so at this point, Ramirez can be DFAd again to make room for Chargois.

    Again, calling up Chargois doesn’t mean we should think he’s 100% ready, but he’s got nothing more to prove in Rochester. His problem in the past was his control. In 2016, he is walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings over 27.2 innings in Rochester. He has a 1.30 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He’s striking out 11.4 per nine innings.

    Chargois, after missing two seasons after being drafted out of Rice University, is already 25. It’s possible that the organization still believes that Ramirez has more in the tank and want to keep him around, hoping he returns to that level. Understandable. If that’s the case, the Twins could call up Chargois when Fernando Abad or Brandon Kintzler are traded in 10 days or so.

    Jorge Polanco

    Polanco had several cups of coffee in 2014 and 2015. Those were 40-man roster decisions. At those times, he wasn’t ready for a full-time gig. He’s ready now.

    He spent a bit of time on the Twins roster earlier this season, and didn’t play, which makes little sense. However, since returning to Rochester, he has hit .279/.345/.471 (.816) in 52 games. He has 12 walks, three triples and seven home runs. He has a good approach at the plate.

    Now, I get that they can’t call up Polanco until a trade of either Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Escobar or even Brian Dozier. Calling him up and sitting one of those players would hurt (possibly) the value of those players. (Note - The other option is DFAing Danny Santana, but again, that would cost playing time in the short term for three guys that they may want to trade. We can just be patient for 10 more days.)

    Could the Twins throw Jorge Polanco at shortstop and stick with any struggles defensively the rest of the season? Sure they could. However, consider this. Here is his playing time by position in 2016:

    Shortstop - 1 game, 8 innings

    Second Base - 59 games, 512 innings

    Third Base - 2 games, 16 innings

    The Twins made the decision after spring training that Jorge Polanco was not going to be able to play shortstop, a decision that is hard to disagree with based on his play at the position the last couple of years. In fact, the one game he played at shortstop this year came in the big leagues.

    The issue is that Polanco is is out of options in 2017. He will need to make the Twins roster or potentially lose him on waivers (they would certainly lose him). If they want him to be a utility player, then he needs to start playing every day at a variety of positions.

    It will be very interesting to me to see how they choose to play Polanco, but in my mind, he needs to be playing in the big leagues very soon, as soon as a roster spot is available following a trade.

    OTHERS

    The three players mentioned above should be up either now, or right after a trade is made (in Polanco’s and maybe Chargois’ case). Here are a few others that either should be up soon, maybe in September, or at least people have been talking about of late.

    Trevor Hildenberger - The right-hander is completely making a mockery of minor league baseball the last couple of seasons. He’s got 16 saves and a 0.79 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP and a 0.5 HR/9, and 1.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 for Chattanooga in 34.1 innings. If the Twins trade two relievers, I have no problem calling him up August 1st to the Twins. He should move up to AAA when Chargois is called up to the big leagues regardless. Despite being drafted just over two years ago, he is 25 because he was a five-year college guy. The reason to not call him up is because of the 40-man roster. The Twins already have some tough decisions to make in November on the 40-man roster updates. Hildenberger doesn’t need to be added for another year. That’s why I’d say either call him up on August 1st, or wait to add him until early in the 2017 season. Invite him to big league camp with a legit shot at an Opening Day spot.

    Byung Ho Park - He has played in just 12 games since being demoted to Rochester. He missed a couple of games with his wrist concerns. He has hit .286/.388/.476 (.864) with two doubles and two home runs. He will come up again at some point, but in my opinion, I’d let him keep playing every day and gaining more and more confidence.

    John Ryan Murphy - If (or when) Kurt Suzuki is traded, most likely John Ryan Murphy, despite a .201/.264/.282 (.546) line in Rochester, will be called up. He just turned 25, so he should still be considered part of the future. He can also work with pitchers that he may work with over the final two months.

    Mitch Garver - Garver is also 25 years old, about four months older than Murphy. Garver has improved defensively, but his offense has been very good of late in Chattanooga too. Over his last 50 games, he has hit .289/.369/.489 (.858) with 14 doubles and eight home runs. Since July 1st, he is hitting .333/.425/.617 (1.041) with eight doubles and three homers in 16 games. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster by November anyway, so it makes sense to call him up either instead of Murphy or with the September call-ups.

    Jason Wheeler - The 25-year-old left-hander was added to the 40-man roster before the 2015 season. He had a tough year and was removed from the 40-man roster late in the season. He began this year in AA but was called up to Rochester when the Red Wings were down three starting pitchers to the big leagues. He has been very good. He is 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 15 starts (95 innings). If the Twins are able to trade a starting pitcher or two (Nolasco, Santana and Milone all possibilities), Wheeler could join the rotation for the final two months as a tryout. (Pat Dean could also get another opportunity, though he has struggled since his return to Rochester.)

    Alex Wimmers - The 27-year-old was the Twins top pick in the 2010 draft, which is significant. It’s been well documented that Wimmers has gone through a lot since the Twins signed him. He had a bout with the yips way back and overcame that. He has gone through Tommy John surgery and returned from that. He’s no longer a starter either. That he was drafted in 2010 is important because as soon as the World Series is complete, Wimmers can become a six-year minor league free agent. Sure, the Twins could re-sign him on a minor league deal after that point, but he has been pitching pretty well since his promotion to AAA Rochester’s bullpen early this season. He is 2-1 with eight saves in 28 games (37.1 innings). In his last 13 games (17 innings), he has a 1.59 ERA and opponents are hitting .197/.269/.246 (.515) against him. I would strongly consider calling him up for the final 6-8 weeks and just see how he does. Evaluate whether or not he is someone they want to keep on their 40-man roster or not. Sure, they can do that evaluation while he’s at AAA, but giving him that opportunity at the big league level is so much more valuable.

    Adam Brett Walker and Daniel Palka - Palka and Walker have both provided a lot of power. Walker is already on the 40-man roster. Palka needs to be added to the 40-man roster after the season, or potentially be lost. It’d be nice to see these guys in September, but it will be very interesting to see if they are. Palka plays right field and some first base and DH. Walker can play the corner outfield spots (not necessarily well) and DH. The Twins understandably will want to keep playing Max Kepler every day. Eddie Rosario needs at-bats, and Robbie Grossman has earned playing time too. At DH, Kennys Vargas is getting what might be his final opportunity, and Byung Ho Park will be up at some point. If Trevor Plouffe isn’t traded, he and Miguel Sano will likely get several DH at-bats, and Joe Mauer could as well. The two sluggers could come up as bench bats and get minimal playing time. The question will need to be whether there is enough benefit from those guys to take up roster spots in September.

    I’m guessing most of you will agree that Jose Berrios, JT Chargois and Jorge Polanco should be up now, or at least very soon. There may be some discussion in the details. But what about some of the others? Who else should be called up and why?


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    True, but he has gone long stretches with OPS over .800 (and to date has one I might add).  Granted the slumps count to, though some of that is explainable.  I think Polanco can be a good player.  I don't think it's a given he will be better than Dozier. I do think he can be an above average 2B, which is why I trade BD every day.  2 more years, even if BD puts up a .900 OPS while playing GG defense, and then he's an FA taking the highest dollar and entering his decline... right when the team is entering its prime.  Makes little sense to keep him. 

    I'd say BD is far from GG D, Fangraphs would agree. hot and cold streaks aren't the players you want either. consistently good players are every team's dream

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    Nobody thinks that short term, where they are going to give up something of value (money or prospects) for Nolasco or Milone at this point based on 2 starts.

    When you trade anyone there is no point in making the trade if you do not get anything of value back. Even the "negative" value of Drew Butera brought back a prospect that brought back an All Star

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    When you trade anyone there is no point in making the trade if you do not get anything of value back. Even the "negative" value of Drew Butera brought back a prospect that brought back an All Star

    We have a ton of players that won't be on the next good team and they are blocking players that might be. So there is a ton of value in clearing spots.

     

    Hopefully the issue (TR) has been removed and we can get on with it

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    I'd say BD is far from GG D, Fangraphs would agree. hot and cold streaks aren't the players you want either. consistently good players are every team's dream

     

    You're missing my point :)  I'm not saying he's a GG.  I am saying that he's under control for 2 years and EVEN IF he puts up a .900 OPS playing GG defense, I'd still trade him. As someone else mentioned, decline will kick in for him sooner than later (though I'm not sure it will be on his current contract) and we have a nice promising player in Polanco who has nothing left to prove in the minors. I'm not sure Polanco can ever do what Dozier has done this year, but I think Polanco can be above average at the plate and in the field.

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    Berrios is listed as the AAA starter tomorrow.

    If I was the number two I would have been pounding the table for him to have never have been demoted after four starts. After the demotion for him to be back. And that would have been a day 1 priority as interim GM

    After 4 starts he was beaten up and had lost his confidence. I believe priority #1 is getting Berrios to Target Field. Whether it happens today, tommorrow, or the next day is immaterial, it will happen.

     

    In a late response, to one of you're earlier posts, Jim Pohlad has no idea who Berrios or Chargois are. 

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    You're missing my point :)  I'm not saying he's a GG.  I am saying that he's under control for 2 years and EVEN IF he puts up a .900 OPS playing GG defense, I'd still trade him. As someone else mentioned, decline will kick in for him sooner than later (though I'm not sure it will be on his current contract) and we have a nice promising player in Polanco who has nothing left to prove in the minors. I'm not sure Polanco can ever do what Dozier has done this year, but I think Polanco can be above average at the plate and in the field.

     

    I don't mind the idea of trading Dozier, but the problem is that there aren't a lot of contenders that really need a 2B. I don't think it makes sense to force a deal, because he is under control for the next few seasons and it still showing he can produce. Find a time when the demand is exceeding the supply and move him then. Definitely need to move Nunez though, his bat, speed and positional versatility would be welcome on almost on any team and Polanco can take that role for the short term.

     

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    After 4 starts he was beaten up and had lost his confidence. I believe priority #1 is getting Berrios to Target Field. Whether it happens today, tommorrow, or the next day is immaterial, it will happen.

     

    In a late response, to one of you're earlier posts, Jim Pohlad has no idea who Berrios or Chargois are.

    I will have to respectfully disagree with you. It was four starts. At some point these guys have to take lumps and battle through it.

     

    Carlos Rodon walked 19 batters in his first 22 innings and they let him throw 139 innings last year. It may just inspire confidence in a player that their team believes in them despite a bad outing or two.

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    I will have to respectfully disagree with you. It was four starts. At some point these guys have to take lumps and battle through it.

    Carlos Rodon walked 19 batters in his first 22 innings and they let him throw 139 innings last year. It may just inspire confidence in a player that their team believes in them despite a bad outing or two.

    You can't compare a college pitcher, who was taken 3rd in the draft, to Berrios. I do agree at some point they do have to take their lumps, but not their first time in The Show. I believe it was Molly who said he was badly shaken  and needed to regroup. At the time, he was the 5th youngest player in the majors.

    Edited by howieramone2
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    You can't compare a college pitcher, who was taken 3rd in the draft, to Berrios. I do agree at some point they do have to take their lumps, but not their first time in The Show. I believe it was Molly who said he was badly shaken and needed to regroup. At the time, he was the 5th youngest player in the majors.

    They were both 22 when they debuted. Berrios was the 15th best prospect before the season. I don't think draft position means a lot here given all of that

     

    They just haven't let their guys struggle at all.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    You're missing my point :)  I'm not saying he's a GG.  I am saying that he's under control for 2 years and EVEN IF he puts up a .900 OPS playing GG defense, I'd still trade him. As someone else mentioned, decline will kick in for him sooner than later (though I'm not sure it will be on his current contract) and we have a nice promising player in Polanco who has nothing left to prove in the minors. I'm not sure Polanco can ever do what Dozier has done this year, but I think Polanco can be above average at the plate and in the field.

    You're forgetting Dozier was one of the worst 2nd basemen in the league the first 2 months.. his year has not been impressive. his last 45 days have. but I see your point i want to trade him too.

    Edited by jsteve96
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    We have a ton of players that won't be on the next good team and they are blocking players that might be. So there is a ton of value in clearing spots.

    Hopefully the issue (TR) has been removed and we can get on with it

    Missed the point completely, as badly as a Drew Butera swing.

    Edited by The Wise One
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    You're forgetting Dozier was one of the worst 2nd basemen in the league the first 2 months.. his year has not been impressive. his last 45 days have. but I see your point i want to trade him too.

     

    GOOD LORD.  Re-read my posts instead of incessantly arguing against a point I'm not trying to make. I never said BD had a good year this year or a bad one.  I'm not saying he is capable of hitting .900 OPS and playing GG defense.  I am saying that even IF he does that in 2017/2018, you trade him b/c we have a capable in house replacement and BD is only under contract 2 more years.

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    They were both 22 when they debuted. Berrios was the 15th best prospect before the season. I don't think draft position means a lot here given all of that

    They just haven't let their guys struggle at all.

    Duffey. The big picture is we need Berrios to go into ST penciled into the #4 slot. This is one of the few we really can't afford to miss on. It doesn't matter how they do it as long as they do. Plenty of time to end up with 15 starts  in The Show.

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    Plenty of time to end up with 15 starts  in The Show.

    Not a whole lot of time left anymore.  They pretty much have to have Berrios up by August 1st to reach 15 MLB starts in 2016, and that's assuming he starts every 5th game thereafter -- no injuries, extra rest, etc.

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    Not a whole lot of time left anymore.  They pretty much have to have Berrios up by August 1st to reach 15 MLB starts in 2016, and that's assuming he starts every 5th game thereafter -- no injuries, extra rest, etc.

    I wasn't real clear about it, but I was including the 4 he already has. 15 starts is roughly half a season. Gibson had 8 in 2013, and May had 8 in 2014. Another member and I discussed the need to let young pitchers work thru their troubles. I would give Berrios the ball every 5 days come hell or high water for the rest of the season. He should be ready for center stage day one of 2017.

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    I wasn't real clear about it, but I was including the 4 he already has. 15 starts is roughly half a season. Gibson had 8 in 2013, and May had 8 in 2014. Another member and I discussed the need to let young pitchers work thru their troubles. I would give Berrios the ball every 5 days come hell or high water for the rest of the season. He should be ready for center stage day one of 2017.

    Aug 1 would get him 10 or 11 more starts, so I'm guessing spycake was including those 4 as well.

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    Why Is the bar for Polanco to be a .350 hitter? Was Dozier a .350 milb hitter?
    I think one could compare Polanco to Dozier at the same age and easily make a case for projecting Polanco to be at least as good as Dozier in a couple of years.

    I'm not sure we would have projected Dozier to be as good as he has become (although I would have expected a higher BA and OBP, but not as much power.)  They are tough to compare because Dozier was a college guy who tore up AA (OPS .885) at age 24.  Polanco won't get the chance because he will be out of options next year at age 23.  He has never approached what Dozier did that year, but then his .725 OPS last year between AA and AAA at age 21 is good enough to make it hard to compare with a 24-yr-old.

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    I'm not sure we would have projected Dozier to be as good as he has become (although I would have expected a higher BA and OBP, but not as much power.) They are tough to compare because Dozier was a college guy who tore up AA (OPS .885) at age 24. Polanco won't get the chance because he will be out of options next year at age 23. He has never approached what Dozier did that year, but then his .725 OPS last year between AA and AAA at age 21 is good enough to make it hard to compare with a 24-yr-old.

    Polanco is at .852 this year at AAA as a 22 year old. I'd say that is comparable enough to Dozier's. 885 in AAA as a 24 year old.

     

    Dozier did OPS .832 in his 22 year old season....at rookie ball.

     

    Will Polanco be as good a major leaguer as Dozier? We don't know. He's a better prospect than Dozier was though, so that's a start.

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