What To Do With Byron Buxton?

But the IF in that last paragraph is a pretty significant if where we sit today...and that’s what the ‘life of luxury’ money is dependent on. And if he’s not, he’s out of baseball or a AAAA player. I’m not sure his camp wouldn’t be willing to look at relatively friendly extensions...maybe sooner rather than later. Turning it around...what IF his 2019 resembles in any way his 2018 either in health or performance?

Like I said, he could get $2 mil this winter in arbitration. Probably $2 mil minimum for 2020 too, even if he does nothing -- he's not getting cut in the next year.

Already got $6 mil signing bonus, he's made ~$1.6 mil in MLB salaries to date. The lucrative Sheboygan saugage endorsement. Already has a pension, plus lifetime health care.

Not sure guaranteeing $25 mil right now is all that important, when he already has ~$12 mil without hedging bets on his future.

That seems extremely high to me. I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil.

Career 4.5 fWAR, 7.0 bWAR already. 5.2 bWAR last year alone, plus a Gold Glove. It's not all based on this season, or on basic counting stats anymore.

Plouffe got $2.35 mil as a super-2 and had't done too much, 1.5 career bWAR at that point. Even ignoring his poor defense, it was 4.6 oWAR in 1351 PA, compared to 3.5 oWAR in 1074 for Buxton. And that was 5 years ago.

If Buxton isn't super-2 and surpasses 3 years service time in September, note that Escobar got $2.1 mil in his first arb season, with 3.9 bWAR, 4.1 oWAR in 1243 career PA. Even got a raise the next year to $2.6 mil after a dismal -0.7 bWAR campaign.

Maybe Buxton won't get $2 mil this winter, I am no expert -- but I don't think he'll get a token award barely above the minimum either.

They should not bring him up based on performance and health. If he is playing every other day he doesn’t even have time to establish playing well and he certainly hasn’t met that bar yet.

 

These September at bats are not going to matter next spring.

Could get enough at bats to show improved K rate, that stabilizes pretty quickly, no? And could be a good indicator for 2019.

Peeking at last year's arb awards, I see Maikel Franco got $2.95 mil as a super-2 coming off a -0.2 bWAR season. Obviously gets points over Buxton for staying on the field, but Franco was 2 years removed from being a plus-hitter, and obviously didn't have a gold glove. $1.5-2 mil for Buxton wouldn't seem outlandish. Should be interesting to follow.

Franco played 150 plus games and had 600 plus PA. Buxton is sitting under 30 games and 100 PA. In other words, he’s been hurt or in the minors all year. Trevor May got $650 K this year with over 3 years service time.

I said Franco had a clear advantage in games. He was just an example of guys getting awards based in part on earlier seasons. I don't think Buxton will get close to his award, but he's not getting $650k either. May's career is 0.3 bWAR. Peak of 1.4. 2018 won't help, but Buxton is going to get some credit for 2017, and even some for 2016 (1.8 bWAR in just over half a season).

If you want a comp for a guy coming off a terrible season, there is Jorge Soler last winter. 110 PA of 36 OPS+. MLBTR still estimated he would have gotten $1.1 mil as a super-2 in arbitration last winter, and his previous seasons were no better than Buxton either (slighty better bat but far worse glove and baserunning, and fewer PAs too). Not a stretch at all to think Buxton might get $1.5 mil, even if you think my initial guess of $2 mil was too high.

120-150 PAs

 

In season I start looking at those rare stats around Memorial Day.

Rochester plus Minnesota, Buxton had potentially 46 games remaining in 2018 when this article was written, over 7 weeks. Could get 120-150 PA there if we wanted. Even if we want to give him ample rest, and he only plays 4 games a week, he will probably be pushing 100 PA.

And hypothetically, if 120-150 is where it stabilizes, I have to imagine that a significant enough improvement at 100 PA could be meaningful. Say a guy was previously at 30% K rate, but managed 100 PA at 15%. I wouldn't call that worthless information.

And for that matter, even if he continued struggling over his next 100 PA, or 120-150 or whatever -- there is value to knowing that on October 1st this year, rather than on May 25th next year. Not just for the player's offseason prep, but the team's too -- trades/FA, waiver claims (could be big in spring training), etc.

Remember, the Twins could have optioned Sano just a couple days earlier back in June, and they would have stood to gain an extra year of control if Sano suffered an injury in the minors and couldn't return to the majors in 2018. They didn't do it. Suggests that perhaps the timing of Buxton's demotion was not service-time related either, and if he is healthy enough to return for Rochester, he should be healthy enough to return to MLB yet this season.

I prefer the value of the extra year and would send him to Florida. Wade and maybe even Austin can get time when Cave, Rosario or Kepler sit. Buxton isn’t playing every day and I don’t know if he is even playing back to back days. He isn’t going to be seeing the best pitching in AAA or September. Given that pitching the data will be less reliable even at 150 PAs.

Won't Wade and Austin be facing the same suspect pitching, in the same amount of PAs as Buxton? What's that going to tell you? Wade in particular has virtually zero shot of starting on opening day 2019, where presumably Buxton does.

Austin has hardly played OF in 3 years. I'd actually be a little surprised if the Twins call up Wade this September, and more surprised if they give him any significant PAs. If we are just wishcasting, why not use 1B and DH to maximize opportunities for younger players? DH might be particularly good for Buxton if you are concerned about health.

I also think "September pitching is worse" is frequently overstated. Sure, some new pitchers usually get called up, but it's not like the whole staffs or rotations get turned over on September 1st, nor do minor league lifers suddenly see significant September action. I'd wager the percentage of PAs for a particular batter against low quality "September callup" pitching is not meaningful, or at least not meaningfully different than other months. (With expanded bullpens, you might even wind up at a platoon disadvantage more often in September too.)

Like I posted upthread, if you really want reps for Buxton but you also want that extra year of control, play him in September, and then option him for 29 days to start 2019.

In the two seaons before Soler’s 36 OPS+, he posted 99 and 103. Both higher than Buxton at his best. By the way, Buxton’s OPS+ is 5 this year. 5.

 

They may settle somewhere, but I’d be surprised if the Twins submit a figure over $1 mil. He has been beyond terrible when he has played. He hasn’t played much. And his offense has been below league average - most of the time WAY below - his entire career.

 

IMO, a good comp for Buxton right now is Peter Bourjos at the time of his first arb go around. Bourjos had one season with an oWAR of 3.9. Other than that, pretty bad, but always above zero (Buxton has had TWO negative oWAR seasons). However, Bourjos had 3 seasons with a dWAR of .9 or better. Buxton so far has had just one.

 

Bourjos received $1.2 mil just 4 years ago. IMO just as elite a defender who was slightly better offensively.

You started this tangent by saying "I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil" and now you are saying a good comp got $1.2 mil, 4 years ago. (Actually 5 seasons/offseasons ago -- Bourjos got that award after 2013, Buxton will get his after 2018.) Even if you think he is slightly worse than Bourjos, that sounds like you think he'll get a million. FWIW, Bourjos and the Cards settled at $1.2 mil, and included $150k in PA incentives, so the actual value of the deal was a tick higher.

Another oddity with Bourjos is that the Angels made him a bench player for a full season AFTER his big year -- 101 games, only 195 PA. Bench players are a lower salary class than starters, and I'm guessing that gave the Cardinals some leverage in arbitration, not unlike how an injury or AAA demotion might affect a starter like Buxton (perhaps not as much, but offsetting some).

Also, 5 years is a long time. It is quite possible that Bourjos did not have enough defensive data available to fully convince an arbitrator of his defensive value -- Statcast didn't even come around until 2015. Buxton will be able to point to a stronger correlation between defensive metrics and higher salaries. Bourjos didn't have a gold glove like Buxton either, for a more traditional defensive value argument.

Soler's 100 OPS+ over 2015-2016 is not that much better than Buxton's 92 over 2016-2017. And it is more than offset by baserunning and defense. And there's a point of diminishing returns to a bad OPS+ -- in similar playing time (or lack thereof), a guy with a 36 isn't going to be considered appreciably better than a guy with a 5. They're both just bad.

None of this is to say Buxton will get $2 mil. I've conceded my potential $2 mil guess (which was just that, a guess) was likely too high. But $1 mil seems like the floor here.

I don’t believe there is nearly as much value in a month of September at bats versus his value next April much less an extra full year at the end.

 

Could the difference be that I believe Buxton will be a very valuable player in that extra year and you believe the September at bats are critical to any possibility of future success?

 

If that’s the case, we disagree. I don’t think the at bats are very valuable but I get your point.

No, that's not really my position.

Let me put it this way: will you be comfortable, after your shutdown, of penciling Buxton in as your opening day CF in 2019?

If not, then why bother shutting him down? You still have an option for 2019, you can use it and achieve the same goal (extra year of control) before May 1st.

If yes, then that sounds pretty reckless, both from a player and a team perspective. With the performance challenges he already had, plus basically the lost season, it seems highly questionable to take away his last shot at healthy* high-level reps before the offseason and opening day 2019, replace them with instructs, and throw him back into the fire at the first opportunity and just expect it is all going to work out somehow.

I am not saying his September 2018 MLB stats will be super-meaningful, or critical to any chance of future success. All I am saying is that it's an opportunity for him to finally play and I don't see a compelling reason to just skip it. The extra year of control is not exclusive to the shut down plan. If anything, we should plan to option him in 2019 regardless. But he needs to play when possible.

* And we should be able assume he is healthy, by any reasonable definition. Even if they want to give him extra days off (and there is still plenty of time to slowly adjust that this season, if we so desire). If he's not healthy, he shouldn't be playing anywhere right now.

Obviously if he get hurt again, or he really struggles at Rochester, you can change course. If he needs to be rebuilt in Ft Myers like Sano, then so be it. (But if you think that today, then he should be in Ft Myers today, nothing gained by waiting.)