Twins Lack Starting Pitching Depth Behind Louie Varland

11 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Huh? I guess define your expectations here...

If Oakland or the White Sox are the measuring stick then sure, the Twins pitching situation isn't so bad.

If you're trying to make it through the regular season and win some postseason games, praying your 1-4 stay 100% healthy, Paddack's struggles are just rust, and Varland or SWR can hold down the 5 spot because the alternative is a Keuchel clone seems like a lot to ask. Are other would be contenders doing that with a fully healthy rotation? 

Show me the teams with AAA pitchers that you expect to be better than back end. That's all I'm asking. There aren't many, any, when I look. 

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What teams have prospects they're excited about in AAA but aren't throwing into their opening day rotation? I'd wager a lot of them. Well, at least a lot of the good ones. It's actually the basis of your entire strategy of relying on young guys. You have to have young guys in AAA to rely on. Good ones. Not just system filler guys. If you're going to do your "rotate through young guys instead of mediocre, or bad, vets" strategy you have to have young guys worth rotating through. I agree with the strategy in general. I just don't think the Twins have done a good job of loading AAA, or AA, with guys you can actually do it with. The average minor leaguer isn't worthy of being part of your strategy if you're expecting to be a good team. Because most won't be any good at all. They'd perform like Varland. They aren't all just automatically high ceiling guys.

Pittsburgh isn't doing anything that weird with Skene. I assume that's what you're referring to. They're going to get an extra year out of him while they build his innings over the first 1/4 or 1/2 the season. It's not some outrageous plan. They had Jared Jones in their opening day rotation and kept depth in AAA to rotate through if he struggled. It's what you're asking the Twins to do. If you don't think it's reasonable to stash talent in AAA at the start of the year you need to change your desired "rotate through young guys with options" strategy because it won't work with just any random minor leaguer.

"Sitting on good pitchers in AAA" is literally the basis of every good team's team building strategy. The Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Cleveland have been doing it with pitchers for years. It's why they're good. It's what the minors are for. My stance is that the Twins don't have good enough prospects for this plan right now. SWR came into the year going the wrong way as a prospect. Festa was a good, not great prospect with 3 AAA starts. My argument is that 8 years in they shouldn't be having to rely on those types of prospects. 

I think it's reasonable, I don't think as many teams succeed as people think. Twins are already down two, and are bringing up a guy many here believe in. How deep do you realistically expect them to be? 

Not that I'm defending the trade with Seattle as their only move....

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What teams have prospects they're excited about in AAA but aren't throwing into their opening day rotation? I'd wager a lot of them. Well, at least a lot of the good ones. It's actually the basis of your entire strategy of relying on young guys. You have to have young guys in AAA to rely on. Good ones. Not just system filler guys. If you're going to do your "rotate through young guys instead of mediocre, or bad, vets" strategy you have to have young guys worth rotating through. I agree with the strategy in general. I just don't think the Twins have done a good job of loading AAA, or AA, with guys you can actually do it with. The average minor leaguer isn't worthy of being part of your strategy if you're expecting to be a good team. Because most won't be any good at all. They'd perform like Varland. They aren't all just automatically high ceiling guys.

Pittsburgh isn't doing anything that weird with Skene. I assume that's what you're referring to. They're going to get an extra year out of him while they build his innings over the first 1/4 or 1/2 the season. It's not some outrageous plan. They had Jared Jones in their opening day rotation and kept depth in AAA to rotate through if he struggled. It's what you're asking the Twins to do. If you don't think it's reasonable to stash talent in AAA at the start of the year you need to change your desired "rotate through young guys with options" strategy because it won't work with just any random minor leaguer.

"Sitting on good pitchers in AAA" is literally the basis of every good team's team building strategy. The Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Cleveland have been doing it with pitchers for years. It's why they're good. It's what the minors are for. My stance is that the Twins don't have good enough prospects for this plan right now. SWR came into the year going the wrong way as a prospect. Festa was a good, not great prospect with 3 AAA starts. My argument is that 8 years in they shouldn't be having to rely on those types of prospects. 

Holding down skenes for an extra year of control might cost them a chance at the division this year. It better work better than it did with Strasburg, because it cost the nationals that first year. Plus, skenes is healthy and better than nearly all their pitchers right now. 

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Paul Skenes, Ricky Tiedemann, Mick Abel, AJ Smith-Shawver, Connor Phillips, Nick Frasso, Carson Whisenhunt, Max Meyer (was on opening day roster then sent down). All top 100 type arms in AAA. That's the Pirates, Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, and Marlins. That's 5 or 6 teams who were/are legitimately trying to make the playoffs this year that all have pitchers that are expected to be better than back end in AAA. It's smart team building.

Multiple? People here are seeing they need two to three guys in AAA ready to start. One? Sure, that's realistic for some teams, but an awful lot of teams don't even have four legit starters in the majors. We'll disagree on what's realistic, I'm ok with that. That's not unusual for me here. 

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Paul Skenes, Ricky Tiedemann, Mick Abel, AJ Smith-Shawver, Connor Phillips, Nick Frasso, Carson Whisenhunt, Max Meyer (was on opening day roster then sent down). All top 100 type arms in AAA. That's the Pirates, Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, and Marlins. That's 5 or 6 teams who were/are legitimately trying to make the playoffs this year that all have pitchers that are expected to be better than back end in AAA. It's smart team building.

Pittsburgh doesn't have four legit MLB starters, they don't have depth. 

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

That wasn't what you asked for. You said "Show me the teams with AAA pitchers that you expect to be better than back end. That's all I'm asking. There aren't many, any, when I look." There are teams with guys in AAA that many expect to be better than back end starters. 

 

How do you expect the Twins to pull off your "rotate young guys instead of paying for mediocre vets" plan? You seem to have contradicting views. On 1 hand you say "young guys have higher potential so rotate them between AAA and the majors to find the ones who can stick" while on the other you say "nobody should expect teams to have guys in AAA that are any better than backend guys." You can't have both. Your strategy doesn't work if you don't think teams could/should hold good prospects in AAA. Where are they getting the young guys to rotate through? Your strategy then comes down to hoping no name prospects are suddenly legit MLB talent. And in your idea, not just legit talent, but better than just mediocre talent. The entire history of the game says that's not even remotely realistic. 

I'm legitimately curious as to how you think teams can pull off your strategy when you don't think they can get more than a single AAA starter at a time to be excited about.

I never said it worked all the time. People here are asking the twins to have depth, pointing out a team with a guy in AAA when they don't have guys in the majors doesn't help their argument that other good teams have depth. Sorry that wasn't clear. I thought I was, but clearly not. 

I don't have to be excited about guys to prefer them over bad veterans....I don't want bad veterans, period. I'd rather roll the dice on severino, who does not excite me, than have Santana. 

Are you arguing at the end that I shouldn't expect more than one player?

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm not even locked in on the Twins minor league affiliates, zero chance I can rattle off other prospects, or care enough to start digging.

I sincerely doubt that the Twins current situation is the norm amongst contenders, but I reserve the right to be wrong...

Fair! I have, and very few if any contenders are deep in pitching anyone here would love to have from top to AAA. 

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

As if that never happens here.  How many articles did we have about cutting spending and how many times have we and will we here about how the FO blew it this off season?  The site is often dominated by constant rehashing of whatever fans don't like. 

Povich stepping up and Steer playing at an even higher level is not relitigating.  It's a new development.  The debate has been basically theoretical in terms of if that team was worthy of investment and even more so about the future costs.  Well, the future is here.  We know exactly what we gained (nothing) and we are starting to understand the costs.

We all want the same thing, a team with lots of talent.  We want to get over the hump.  You better make those investments in the right player at the right time because if you trade away players that will contribute for 6+ years, it's going to make it very difficult to get over that hump.  I don't sweat a 1 year $5M player not working out.  Not even a little.  Hell, the really expensive FAs fail at a high rate.  That problem goes away quickly.  

The current Oriole's team is credited with drafting very well and they have.  Eight of the their top contributors were drafted.  Seven other top contributors we prospects/waived players acquired before every amassing 1.5 wins in a season.  One player (Kimbrell) was acquired in free agency.  I realize you and many others hate the message but the methods we love as fans (free agents and trades for proven) succeed far less often than those teams that play that long game if you just bother to look.

I literally talk about drafting better being needed, follow the minor league report, and beg them to trust the guys they develop over veterans every year. So I have no idea what you are talking about.